NT 2024 – The CLP’s Pathway to Power and Labor’s Options to Block it

With 25 seats up for grabs and only 13 needed for majority government, it is no exaggeration to say that just a handful of seats could decide the Northern Territory election.

And given there are an average of 6,140 electors per seat, that handful of seats could come down to a few handfuls of votes. In 2020, eight seats recorded majorities of under 120 votes, four seats under 50.

The starting grid for the election is that Labor holds 14 seats, the Country Liberal Party (CLP) seven, and four seats are held by Independents.

The loss of just two seats will cost the Labor government its majority while the CLP need a net gain of six seats for majority government.

In between two seats and six lies the possibility of minority government, the fate of both major parties resting on the Assembly crossbench.

After two terms of Labor government, everything points to there being a swing to the Country Liberals, the election to be fought overwhelmingly in Labor seats.

So which seats pave the CLP’s pathway to majority government, and what obstacles can Labor use to block the path?

All links in this post are to individual electorate pages in my ABC NT2024 Election Guide.

Step 1 – The CLP must hold its own seats

After winning just two seats at the 2016 election, the CLP increased its numbers to eight seats in 2020, though one seat has since been lost at a by-election.

Five of the party’s seven seats sit on margins under 3%. For the CLP to reach government, the first task is to retain its current seats.

The CLP should easily win the regional centre of Katherine (CLP 2.5%) as well as Braitling (CLP 1.3%) in Alice Springs. Labor won both seats for the first time in 2016, but both went home to the CLP in 2020. With the dissolution of the Territory Alliance, the focus in 2024 returns to the contest for government between Labor and the CLP. Labor has chosen high profile candidates in both seats, but with ‘Laura Norder’ the dominant local issue, the CLP should substantially increase its majority in both seats.

Greater effort will be required for the CLP to hold two other 2020 regional gains. Steve Edginton won the outback seat of Barkly (CLP 0.1%) by just five votes, and Bill Yan’s majority in Namatjira (CLP 0.3%) was little better at 22 votes.

Both seats have large Indigenous populations, making up 64% of residents in Barkly and 45% in Namatjira. Both seats include numerous remote Indigenous communities where votes are taken by mobile polling teams. Both seats traditionally have low turnout, Barkly 63.2% in 2020 and Namatjira 66.1%

Labor polls strongly in remote communities, and if Labor’s campaign can increase turnout, then there is a chance of Labor winning both seats. Against this, Edgington and Yan should have built a personal vote over four years as MLA. But small majorities plus the possibility of higher turnout will force the CLP to campaign hard.

The fifth seat the CLP must retain is Palmerston-based Brennan (CLP 3.0%), where Marie-Clare Boothby defeated Labor’s Tony Sievers in 2020. Only twice has Labor won Brennan, at landslide victories in 2005 and 2016. Sievers returns as Labor candidate in 2024, but Palmerston is more naturally CLP territory and Boothby is strongly favoured to retain Brennan with an increased majority.

Nelson (CLP 9.2% v IND) is based in Darwin’s rural fringe, tiger country for Labor candidates, but not always walkover territory for the CLP. The seat was held by Independent Gerry Wood for 19 years until his retirement in 2020. Independent Beverley Ratahi failed in an attempt to succeed Wood but re-emerged as a last minute candidate for the 2024 election. Having only two weeks to campaign will hinder Ratahi’s chances and CLP Deputy Leader Gerard Maley should be re-elected.

Having retained its own seats, the CLP’s attention will turn to Labor’s marginals.

Step 2 – Labor’s low hanging fruit

The southern Palmerston seat of Blain (IND 1.3%) was won by Labor for the first time in 2020. It had been held for the CLP by Terry Mills for 15 years. He left the Assembly in 2014 after being dumped as Chief Minister, returned to win Blain as an Independent in 2016 before forming the Territory Alliance in late 2019. He was surprisingly defeated for his new party in 2020, finishing third with Labor’s Mark Turner winning by 13 votes after preferences.

Turner was excluded from the Labor caucus in early 2021 and later expelled from the party. He is re-contesting as an Independent in 2024 with Dani Eveleigh the new Labor candidate. As in 2020 the CLP candidate is Matthew Kerle and he is favoured to win.

Port Darwin (LAB 1.9%) is a traditional CLP seat covering the Darwin CBD and nearby upmarket developments. It traditionally only falls to Labor at landslide victories, first in 2005 and again in 2016, a trend broken in 2020 when Labor’s Paul Kirby was re-elected. Labor loses the advantage of incumbency in 2024 with Kirby retiring. Long serving local teacher Brian Manning is the new Labor candidate, but he faces a strong CLP opponent in high-profile health and medical administrator Robyn Cahill.

Next door lies Fong Lim (LAB 2.2%), a seat that tracks closely to the territory-wide trend and has gone with government at the last three elections. It was won in 2020 by Labor’s Mark Monaghan, defeating former Labor member Jeff Collins who had defected to the Territory Alliance. Monaghan is Minister for Education, Mining, Agribusiness and Fisheries. His CLP opponent is Dr Tanzil Rahman, an economic geographer who until recently worked for the Chief Minister’s department. If the CLP can’t win Fong Lim, its path to government means achieving larger swings to gain seats in Darwin’s northern suburbs.

The margin for Daly (LAB 6.1%) is based on Dheran Young’s victory at a September 2021 by-election. It was the first by-election in NT history where the government took a seat from the opposition. Daly had been one of only two seats retained by the CLP on the defeat of the Giles government in 2016 and was retained with a margin of 1.2% in 2020. The 2020 result may be a better guide to Daly’s prospects in 2024. Labor’s victory at the by-election was due to higher turnout for mobile polling and lower turnout in urban areas closer to Darwin. Turnout at both ends of the electorate will again play an important role in who wins Daly in 2024.

Step 3 – CLP on 11 seats, what’s next?

Being eyed as a fifth gain and twelfth seat is Goyder (IND 6.8% v CLP). It has been held by Kezia Purick since 2008, elected for the CLP in 2008 and 2012 before defecting to the crossbench in 2015 and being re-elected as an Independent in 2016 and 2020. Purick is retiring at the 2024 election but backing a campaign by Independent Belinda Kolstad to keep Goyder as a crossbench seat. Trying just as hard to put Goyder back on the CLP benches is aquaculture consultant and former Litchfield Councillor Andrew Mackay.

If all seats fall to this point, the CLP achieves majority government by winning the Palmerston seat of Drysdale (LAB 5.4%). Central to the narrative of the 2024 election is that Drysdale is held by Chief Minister Eva Lawler. Her seat could be the pivot point that determines the fate of government.

But Lawler is a tough opponent. In 2020 she became the first Labor MLA to win re-election for a Palmerston seat and did so with a swing in her favour. In 2024 she is trying to win a third term for herself in Drysdale as well as for the Labor government she now leads. Her CLP opponent is Clinton Howe.

Fannie Bay (LAB 10.9%) has been represented by three Chief Ministers in Marshall Peron, Clare Martin and Michael Gunner. Current MLA and Police Minister Brent Potter was first elected at the 2022 by-election following Michael Gunner’s retirement. Potter’s margin of victory at the by-election was just 2.6%, but past results suggest that general election margins are more reliable guides than by-election results. The CLP candidate is Laurie Zio, and a vigorous campaign is also being mounted by Greens candidate Suki Dorras-Walker.

Step 4 – Into Darwin’s Northern Suburbs

At all but one election since 1983, the party that won the election also swept Darwin’s northern suburbs. Between 1983 and 1997, the CLP never won fewer than six northern Darwin seats and Labor never won more than two. Since 2001 the picture has reversed, Labor shutting the CLP out entirely at four elections, and the CLP winning a solitary seat in 2008 and 2012.

The only time a party won government without sweeping northern Darwin was in 2012. That the CLP won so few Darwin seats at that election was one of the reasons its party room split over the next four years.

If the Country Liberals win Goyder from the Independent, and Blain, Port Darwin, Fong Lim, Daly and Drysdale from Labor, they achieve majority government with 13 seats. Beyond 13, or if they miss one of their targets, then achieving majority government means winning Fannie Bay or one of the six seats in northern Darwin.

The most marginal seat is Karama (LAB 8.3%) held since 2016 by Families Minister Ngaree Ah Kit. As in 2020 her CLP opponent is Brian O’Gallagher. Also in the field are former Darwin Councillor Justine Glover (Independent) and Andy Rowan (Greens). Karama is the last developed and least affluent of northern Darwin’s seats.

When sitting members retire in the Northern Territory, their seat becomes vulnerable to challenge. Such is the case in 2024 in one of Labor’s safest seat’s, Wanguri (LAB 18.8%), held by the party continuously since 1988. Nicole Manison has been the MLA since 2013 and her retirement puts Wanguri in play. The new Labor candidate is former NT ‘Shoppies’ Union Director Shlok Sharma, facing CLP candidate Oly Carlson and former Darwin Lord Mayor Graeme Sawyer campaigning as an Independent.

Johnston (LAB 16.0%) is another seat that looks safe on paper, but Joel Bowden faces a prominent CLP opponent in 'Deadly Hair Dude' Gary Strachan, a high profile Independent in Justine Davis, and Greens candidate Billie Barton. Davis managed to get endorsement for her campaign from ACT Independent Senator David Pocock.

Former Chief Minister Natasha Fyles looks safe in Nightcliff (LAB 24.1%). Her CLP opponent is Helen Secretary, but there are Greens and Independents in the field opposed to development at Lee Point. That is also a big issue in Casuarina (LAB 16.0%) where Lauren Moss is opposed by the CLP's Khoda Patel. Sanderson (LAB 18.8%) was the one northern Darwin seat won by the CLP in 2008 and 2012. It was recovered by Labor's Kate Worden in 2016 and she increased her margin in 2020. Her CLP opponent is Jinson Charls.

What about the Crossbench?

Only 80 candidates have nominated for the 2024 election, well down on 111 in 2020 and 115 in 2016. Only three parties are contesting the election, Labor with 24 candidates, the Country Liberals with 25 and Greens 11. The other 20 candidates are Independents.

If neither major party achieves a majority, the fate of government will rest on the two Independents certain of victory, Robyn Lambley in the Alice Springs seat of Araluen (IND 0.5%) and Yingiya Mark Guyula in the north-east Arnhem Land seat of Mulka (IND 5.1%). Of other independent candidates, Belinda Kolstad in Goyder and Justine Davis in Johnston have the best victory prospects.

Which party Independents back post-election will depend on the major party numbers. The general view is that Guyula would be more likely to back Labor (who have not nominated against him) while Lambley is thought more likely back the CLP, her former party. Who they back will depend on the final numbers.

But what about the chances of other Independents? Is there a possibility of a ‘teal’ wave in the Northern Territory? Is the ground game of the Greens good enough to win a seat?

With so few candidates nominating, a key point to remember is the rule of thirds. If both major party candidates in an electorate poll more than a third of the vote, it is impossible for any other candidate to win.

For example, if CLP and Labor candidates both poll 33.4%, the vote for all other candidates adds to 33.2% which cannot be better than third place.

For an Independent or Green to win, they must force one of the major party candidates below 33.3%. Given the vagaries of preference flows, support for one of the major parties must slip to third and dip towards 25% for any other candidate to have a chance of victory.

But victory would require strong flows of preferences from an excluded major party candidate.

The CLP has recommended second preferences for Independents in northern Darwin seats but also listed Labor ahead of the Greens in all seats.

Which means if the CLP slip to third in a seat, and voters follow the CLP preference recommendations, CLP preference might push a second placed Independent ahead of Labor but would not do the same for a Greens candidate.

In seats where CLP preferences are distributed, a Greens candidate would have to outpoll Labor, either on first preferences or by passing Labor on Independent preferences.

The best chance for the Greens to win a seat is if Labor slips to third and Labor preferences determine the winner. Labor how-to-votes are not yet available.

A final point to emphasise in any discussion of preferences is that parties and candidate cannot determine how preferences flow. Parties and candidates distribute how-to-vote material to influence voters, but it is voters who determine the preference ordering written on their ballot papers.

When the Electoral Commission counts the votes, they count the numbers written on each ballot paper. Parties and candidates cannot override or change the decisions made by voters.