NSW State District of Kiama set for By-election

Result Declared – Final Figures

Kiama By-election Result

Candidate	Party	Votes	Pct	Change
Katelin McInerney	ALP	18,622	37.3	+2.9
Serena Copley	LIB	13,226	26.5	+14.5
Kate Dezarnaulds	IND	5,225	10.5	+10.5
Tonia Gray	GRN	4,074	8.2	-3.0
Don Fuggle	LCA	2,550	5.1	+5.1
Felix Nelson	SFF	2,543	5.1	+5.1
Joshua Beer	LBT	895	1.8	+1.8
Lisa Cotton	IND	676	1.4	+1.4
Ellie Robertson	AJP	622	1.2	+1.2
Andrew Thaler	IND	544	1.1	+1.1
Roger Woodward	IND	429	0.9	+0.9
Ken Davis	SAP	420	0.8	-2.8
Cyrille Jeufo Keuheu	IND	69	0.1	+0.1
…. (Gareth Ward)	IND	..	0.0	-38.8
Formal		49,895
Informal		1,995	3.8	+0.7
Total / % Counted		51,890	83.0
Roll		62,486
Two-Candidate Preferred
Katelin McInerney	ALP	23,313	60.2	+10.9
Serena Copley	LIB	15,421	39.8	+39.8
…. (Gareth Ward)	IND	..	0.0	-50.8
Exhausted		11,161	22.4	+9.0
Two-Party Preferred
Katelin McInerney	ALP	23,313	60.2	-9.5
Serena Copley	LIB	15,421	39.8	+9.5
Exhausted		11,161	22.4	-10.4

Analysing the by-election swing is complicated by Gareth Ward’s victory as an Independent in 2023. Comparing Labor’s result to the contest against Ward in 2023 there is a 10.9% swing to Labor. By the alternative two-party preferred count from 2023, there is a 9.6% swing against Labor. But in 2023 there was a massive exhaustion rate caused by 69.5% of Ward voters having no preferences which inflated Labor’s two-party preferred result. As a result the two-party preferred swing is distorted which makes the two-candidate preferred swing a more reliable measure of the by-election swing.

Pre-election comment: My view since the start of the campaign is that Labor will win easily, as they would have won easily in 2023 had Gareth Ward not been on the ballot paper. Labor may even win a majority of the first preference vote and will certainly have the highest first preference vote. Based on the published how-to-vote preference recommendations, it is difficult to see how any other candidate can close Labor’s lead. Two weeks of bad headlines for the Federal Liberal Party can only have helped Labor’s cause.

Update: the campaign will be short with the by-election announced for Saturday 13 September. The writ will be issued on 22 August which in NSW electoral law is also the date when the electoral rolls closes. Nominations will close at noon on Thursday 28 August with early voting to begin on Saturday 6 September.

Draw for Ballot Positions 29 August – 13 candidates at the close of nominations. Labor drew the last position but will still be favoured to win. Details of the ballot paper inside post.

How-to-vote preference recommendations – details have been added

The resignation of former Independent MP Gareth Ward has set the stage for a by-election in his south coast seat of Kiama.

Ward has first elected as Liberal member for Kiama in 2011 at the Coalition’s landslide defeat of the Keneally Labor government. As outlined in this post, Kiama at the time was a traditional Labor seat, having been held by the party since its creation in 1981. He was re-elected in 2015 and again in 2019 with no swing against him. He resigned from the Liberal Party in 2020 after being charged with the sexual offences for which he was eventually convicted.

Ward was re-elected as an Independent in 2023 despite the charges hanging over his head. Two weeks ago he was convicted on the charges and placed in custody last week. Earlier this week he gained an injunction against the NSW Legislative Assembly moving a motion to expel him. His case was dismissed yesterday and the Assembly was due to debate an expulsion motion this morning. Before the debate could take place, Ward sent a resignation letter to the Speaker of the Assembly.

Read on for more information on the Kiama electorate.

2023 Result

Gareth Ward defeated his Labor opponent Katelin McInerney by 689 votes, a margin on 0.8%. An alternative two-party preferred count produced a Labor margin over the Liberal Party of 19.7%, but almost a third of voters expressed no preference in the count with most of Ward’s votes being ‘1’ only votes with no further preferences. (NSW uses optional preferential voting.)

Labor’s support in Kiama in the Legislative Council election was even higher at 38.2%, the Liberal Party on 24.0%. It is clear that a significant number of Labor and Liberal upper house voters voted for Ward despite the charges.

Electorate Profile

Kiama extends from the southern Illawarra to the Shoalhaven River then west into the Morton National Park. At its centre lies the Kiama council area, including Kiama, Kiama Downs, Minnamurra, Jamberoo and Gerringong. Nearby to the north the electorate includes Albion Park and Albion Park Rail south of the Princes Highway in Shellharbour council. The electorate then extends south into Shoalhaven Council to include Kangaroo Valley, Bombaderry and North Nowra, as well as some areas to the west of Nowra. Covers 2,275 square kilometres. (Map courtesy of the NSW Electoral Commission)

Candidates (13) in Ballot Paper Order

Candidate Name	Affiliation
Tonia Gray	The Greens
Serena Copley	Liberal
Andrew Thaler	Independent
Roger Woodward	Independent
Don Fuggle	Legalise Cannabis Party
Ken Davis	Sustainable Australia Party – Stop Overdevelopment/Corruption
Lisa Cotton	Independent
Cyrille Jeufo Keuheu	Independent
Felix Nelson	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Joshua Beer	Libertarian Party (formerly Liberal Democrats)
Ellie Robertson	Animal Justice Party
Kate Dezarnaulds	Independent
Katelin McInerney	Labor

(Order of candidates has been corrected)

Only six of the 13 candidates have an address in the Kiama electorate, Dezarnaulds (Independent), Copley (Liberal), Gray (Greens), Nelson (SFF), Woodward (Independent) and McInerney (Labor). Three further candidates, Davis (SAP), Fuggle (Legalise Cannabis) and Cotton (Independent), list addresses in the Illawarra.

Thirteen candidates is not a record field. A quick scan through my records throws up the 1987 Bankstown by-election (13 candidates), 1987 Heathcote by-election (16) and 1992 Davidson by-election (15).

Registered How-to-vote Preference Recommendations

• Labor: 1-only recommendation. Labor has also registered leaflets with appeals for second preferences, one for Independents saying give Labor preference 2, and a second for Greens voters saying preference Labor 2.
• Liberal: 1-only recommendation
• Greens: have registered two how-to-votes, one that lists Labor ahead of Independent Kate Dezarnaulds, and a second with Dezarnaulds ahead of Labor.
• Libertarian: 2 for Liberal
• Legalise Cannabis: – 3 Labor, 4 Greens, 5 Dezarnaulds.
• Animal Justice: – 2 Labor, 3 Greens
• All other candidates with registered material have recommended 1-only votes.

Family First Withdraws from Contest

Family First originally announced it would contest the Kiama by-election with candidate Kyle Napoleoni. It has since withdrawn because while Family First is registered as a party under the NSW NSW Electoral Act, it has been registered for less than 12 months. It is not until 12 months after registration that a party receives the the benefits of registration.

The two main benefits are that the party’s name can be printed on ballot papers next to the candidate’s name, and that candidates can be nominated by the party’s registered officer without the need to obtain 25 nomination signatures from enrolled voters in the electorate.

I presume Family First discovered the problem when the registered officer tried to nominate Napoleoni for the by-election. With nominations closing at noon on 28 August, I presume it was too late to get hold of 25 locals on the electoral roll for the seat of Kiama.

All Australian jurisdictions have cut off points before an election by which time a party must be registered. These generally apply from 3-6 months before a general election. Once registered a party has the benefits. Except in NSW where the Electoral Act mandates a 12 month delay after registration, forcing parties to be registered 12 months ahead of a general election.

With an eye on contesting the 2027 state election, Family First has achieved registration. The party’s problem is that the Kiama by-election has come up within 12 months of Family First’s registration so it does not yet qualify for the benefits of registration.

(I have written a second post on why NSW has this 12 month rule. You can read it here.)

Background

Kiama existed as an electorate from 1859 until 1904 when it was abolished on the post-Federation reduction in size of the Legislative Assembly. Amongst Kiama’s 19th century members were Henry Parkes and George Fuller, both of whom later to served as Premier.

Kiama was re-created ahead of the 1981 election following the introduction of one-vote one-value electoral boundaries and was Labor held for the next three decades. Former members were Bill Knott 1981-85, former professional wrestler and Shellharbour Mayor Bob ‘Bo Bo’ Harrison 1985-1999, and Matt Brown 1999-2011.

Knott had first been elected at the 1978 election when he caused an upset by winning Wollondilly on the retirement of former Liberal Premier Tom Lewis. His son Peter later served as an accident prone Federal MP for the local Federal seat of Gilmore 1993-96.

Matt Brown was appointed a Minister after the re-election of Labor under Morris Iemma in 2007. When Nathan Rees became Premier, Brown received a major promotion to Police Minister, but he lasted only three days in the post. He was forced to resign as Minister when his behaviour at a boisterous party in Parliament House was revealed. Brown was easily defeated after a 19.4% swing at the 2011 election.

Despite a near 10% state-wide swing to Labor at the 2015 election, new Liberal MP Gareth Ward was easily re-elected with a small swing in his favour. He increased his margin with a further 3.3% swing in his favour in 2019, reward for the government’s expenditure in major improvements to the Princes Highway since coming to office.

Ward faced a very different challenge in 2023 having resigned from the Liberal Party pending his court case. Ward’s first hearing in the case did not take place until after the election but did not prevent his re-election.

Ward was viewed by voters as responsible for major public works upgrades during his time as member. Anyone driving to the South Coast can’t help but notice how much easier it is compared to before the election of the Coalition in 2011. The construction of the Albion Park and Berry by-passes, the straightening and duplication of highway between Gerringong and Bomaderry, and the construction of a new bridge over the Shoalhaven River between Bomaderry and Nowra, have all improved access to communities in the Kiama electorate and areas further south.

Past Winning Parties

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2023 Polling Place Results

Gareth Ward recorded two-candidate preferred majorities at 13 of the 23 polling places used in 2023 and three of the four pre-poll voting centres. His vote ranged from 36.6% at Albion Park Rail Public School in the north to 63.9% at the small Nowra Hill Public School in the south. As the map makes clear, Ward’s support was strong at the Nowra-Bombaderry end of the electorate, his background having been on Shoalhaven Council, while Labor recorded majorities in Kiama itself and very strong results further north at Albion Park and Albion Partk Rail.

Polling day votes represented half of the votes taken and Labor recorded a majority with 51.4%. There were three large Early Voting Centres taking about 7,000 votes each. Ward polled 46.1% two-candidate preferred at the Albion Park EVC, but recorded 50.2% at Kiama EVC and a huge 61.0% at Nowra EVC. Ward lost the Absent vote with only 46.1% but won the Postal vote with 58.5%.

(Click on polling place for results)

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Kiama Preference Flows at the 2023 Election

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Past results

The chart below plots Liberal two-party preferred results since 1984. The Liberal points from 1984 to 2007 indicates the seat was safely held by Labor, but that was turned around by the massive swing to the Liberal Party in 2011 when Gareth Ward was first elected.

The dashed line plots the Coalition’s state-wide result. From a highpoint at its 2011 landslide victory, this line slips downward at three subsequent election. But in 2015 and 2019, Ward’s vote held up and increased his majority despite the Coalition’s declining state-wide vote. Ward’s victory as an Independent is not shown on the chart but the final two-party preferred point for 2023 shows how the Labor vote surged. As already mentioned, the Labor two-party preferred result was magnified by the high exhaustion rate for preferences.

Prospects

Given Ward’s conviction, Labor’s 2023 result in Kiama, and the Federal result in the same area at May’s Federal election, you would expect Labor to easily win the by-election. The party has drawn badly, position 13 at the bottom of the ballot paper, but that’s less important with optional preferential voting in use for NSW elections.

The major threat for Labor would be Independent Kate Dezarnaulds, but she would need to poll considerably better than in Gilmore at May’s Federal election. Even then, optional preferential voting will work against her winning.