Minor Party Preference Flows at the 2020 Queensland Election

(Note: This post was originally published on 1 November but has been fully updated on 18 November to include data available from later data files. I have also published further comments on preferences, in my final analysis of the 2020 Queensland election results.)

The Electoral Commission Queensland collected preference flow data by candidate as part of its election night count, and continued with the tallying in some electorates in the days that followed..

Preference flow data tallies votes by pairings of ‘from’ and ‘to’ candidates. So in the table below of two-party preferred preference flows, the tally is of votes from third parties that flowed as preferences to Labor or Liberal candidates.

The table can be sorted by column. It includes only the 70 districts where the two-party preferred flow data is available. Several other electorates did not finish as two-party contests, while some electorates that will finish as two-party contests had a different pairing of candidates counted out on election night.

The preference flows are roughly similar to those seen at the 2017 Queensland election.

Green preferences flowed to Labor in all 70 seats where data is available. Gregory was the only electorate where the flow was below 60%, just 51.5% in an electorate where the the Greens polled only 2.8%. Green preferences flowed to Labor above 80% in 28 electorates, the highest 90.1% in inner-Brisbane Miller. As a general rule, the flow of Green preference to Labor increases as the Green first preference vote rises, which always suggests that more active campaigning by the Greens increases both first preference support and preference flows to Labor.

Katter’s Australian Party has preference data available for seven seats. The flows to Labor ahead of the LNP in each (in ascending order) were Burdekin 33.4%, Burnett 40.8%, Mundingburra 41.4%, Whitsunday 41.7%, Mulgrave 43.0%, Townsville 43.8% and Thuringowa 49.3%. KAP issued two-sided how-to-votes leaving it to voters to chose whether to preference Labor or the LNP.

One Nation preferences are available for 69 districts, all of which saw a majority preference flow to the LNP. There were nine districts where the flow was under 60%, the lowest 52.2% in the Premier’s safe Labor seat of Inala. The flow was above 70% in 22, the highest 79.9% in Moggill. Compared to the Greens, there seems less relationship between first preference vote and preference flows.

LNP preferences available for 10 districts. There were two Labor v Green contestd, LNP preferences in South Brisbane flowed 67.8% to the Greens over Labor, and in McConnel 25.2% to Labor and 74.8% to the Greens. In two Labor v KAP contests, LNP preferences flowed 84.3% to KAP in Traeger and 81.6% on Cook.

There were another eight districts where Labor v ONP contests were counted out one lection producing LNP preference flows of 23.9% to Labor and 76.1% to One Nation. Only two of these seats were finally counted out as Labor v ONP contests. The LNP flows to One Nation in these seats were Bundamba 69.0%, Ipswich 75.6%, Ipswich West 76.5%, Jordan 67.7%, Logan 76.0%, Maryborough 83.8%, Mirani 83.4% and Rockhampton 71.8%.

Labor preferences are available in 10 districts. In contests versus the Greens, Labor preferences flowed 80.7% to the Greens in Maiwar, to Independent Sandy Bolton 87.6% in Noosa, and to Katter’s Australian Party 84.0% in Hill, 77.7% in Hinchinbrook and 54.7% in Warrego.

There were also five LNP v ONP contest where Labor preference were available, in total flowing 57.6% to the LNP. By seat the flows to the LNP, following the Labor how-to-vote, were Condamine 53.8%, Gympie 64.5%, Lockyer 56.4%, Nanango 55.1% and Scenic Rim 59.4%.

Clive Palmer’s UAP preferences are available in 42 electorates and favoured the LNP in 41, above 70% in eight. The overall flows were Labor 35.7%, LNP 64.3%. But the party’s first preference was so low that the party’s preferences were irrelevant.

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