Lyons 2021 – Updates on Distribution of Preferences

Candidates Elected in Order

  1. Labor – Rebecca White (Re-elected)
  2. Liberal – Guy Barnett (Re-elected)
  3. Liberal – Mark Shelton (Re-elected)
  4. Labor – Jen Butler (Re-elected)
  5. Liberal – John Tucker (Re-elected)

Count Completed

Links to Other Electorates: Bass | Braddon | Clark | Franklin

13 May Updates

12:15PM – I missed the count dealing Jen Butler’s surplus while at the optometrist so this update includes both her small surplus and the distribution of all first preference votes held by Stephanie Cameron. At this point John Tucker was elected to fill the final vacancy and the distribution of preferences was completed. The table below has the final totals by party and by candidate.

Party/Group Totals after Count 44 (Final) – partial exclusion of Stephanie Cameron (Liberal)

Party/Group Party Change Votes Quotas
Liberal Total LIB -929 37,989 3.2091
Labor Total ALP -323 23,676 2.0000
Green Total GRN +343 7,594 0.6415

Candidate Totals after Count 44 (Final) – partial exclusion of Stephanie Cameron (Liberal)

Candidate (Order) Party Change Votes Quotas
Rebecca White (1 elected) ALP 0 11,838 1.0000
Guy Barnett (2 Elected) LIB 0 11,838 1.0000
Mark Shelton (3 Elected) LIB 0 11,838 1.0000
Jen Butler (4 Elected) ALP -323 11,838 1.0000
John Tucker (5 Elected) LIB +4,860 13,405 1.1324
Liz Johnstone GRN +343 7,594 0.6415
Stephanie Cameron LIB -5,789 908 0.0767
Exhausted +909 1,767 0.1493

9:30am – results will be updated through the day. The count will begin by distributing the surplus of Labor’s second elected candidate Jen Butler, followed by the distribution of preferences for the 4th placed Liberal Stephanie Cameron. This will confirm the re-election of John Tucker at which point the count will be complete. Totals by party and candidate are shown in the count summary tables.

12 May Updates

5:50pm – exclusion of Janet Lambert elects Jen Butler to the second Labor seat.

3:40pm – exclusion of Carli Di Falco (SFF)

2:20pm – Mark Shelton’s small surplus distributed.

12:55 – part exclusion of Liberal Justin Derksen. This puts Mark Shelton over quota and also guarantees that John Tucker will win the third Liberal seat.

11:45am – the exclusion of Susie Bower saw twice as many preferences flow to Stephenie Cameron as to Liberal MHA John Tucker. This narrowed Tucker’s lead over Cameron to 834 votes with 3,327 votes for another Liberal, Justin Derksen, set as the next exclusion. Derksen’s preferences will first elect Mark Shelton to the third vacancy but also determine who leads out of Cameron and Tucker.

11:00am – I’ll be maintaining two tables to follow the count for the rest of the day. The first is totals by party, the second shows the totals by candidate. I’ll keep them at the top of the post with the latest commentary with earlier commentary below

11 May Updates

8:00pm – exclusion of Labor candidate Edwin Batt changed little, the count still continuing three Liberal and two Labor with all five sitting members set for re-election. The exclusion of lower placed Liberal candidates tomorrow may reveal of John Tucker is under threat from Stephanie Cameron.

5:15pm – exclusion of the Animal Justice party candidate saw 30% of preferences flow to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party. A little odd but no significant impact on the result.

4:25pm – 3rd place Green candidate excluded. Next out is the 1,724 votes of Animal Justice candidate Sharon McLay.

3:55pm – lower order Labor and Green candidates being excluded without any significant impact on the count.

2:30pm – The White and Barnett surplus distributions have been published. Mark Shelton received strong flows and is only around a thousand votes short of a quota. John Tucker did not do as well, strong flows to other Liberals on the ticket, raising the chance he could be overtaken by one of the other Liberals, possible Stephanie Cameron. I’ve downgraded Tucker to possible rather than certain re-election.

Rebecca White’s preferences favoured fellow MHA Jen Butler making it very likely she will be re-elected to the second Labor seat.

12:50pm – Final first preference total published. Distribution underway. Final filled quotas were White 1.38 and Bartlett 1.25.

10:50am – The count will begin with the formal declarations of Labor’s Rebecca White elected with 1.38 quotas and Liberal Guy Barnett with 1.26 quotas. There will then be a distribution of both candidate’s surpluses. White’s surplus should clarify whether Jen Butler or Janet Lambert are more likely to win the second Labor seat. Barnett’s surplus may also clarify whether John Tucker is on track to win the third Liberal seat.

After that the count will exclude and distribute preferences from the lowest polling candidates, Glenn Millar (Green) and George Lane (Ungrouped).

Pre-Distribution Commentary

Prospects: Liberal MHAs Mark Shelton and John Tucker will be re-elected. Sitting Labor MHA Jen Butler will compete with Janet Lambert for the second Labor seat.