Franklin 2021- Updates on Distribution of Preferences

Candidates Elected in (speculative) Order

  1. Liberal – Jacquie Petrusma (Re-elected)
  2. Greens – Rosalie Woodruff (Re-elected)
  3. Labor – Dean Winter (Elected)
  4. Labor – David O’Byrne (Re-elected)
  5. Liberal – Nic Street (Re-elected)

Count Completed

Change in Elected Members – On the Labor ticket, Dean Winter defeats Alison Standen. The order of election for O’Byrne and Winter is yet to be determined.

Links to Other Electorates: Bass | Braddon | Clark | Lyons

13 May Updates

3:15pm – All Standen’s full value first preferences have been distributed electing in order Dean Winter (3), David O’Byrne (4) and Nic Street (5). An enormous result for Dean Winter given it took Federal intervention to get him on the ballot paper. The State party needs to really examine itself over why it didn’t want to pre-select a candidate who ended up topping the party’s ticket.

Good result for Nic Street who finally gets elected at a state election. He’s been elected to parliament twice befor, but both times at a re-count, first in place of Paul Harriss, and then last year in place of the very popular Will Hodgman.

Party/Group Totals at Count 40 – partial exclusion of Alison Standen (Labor)

Party/Group Party Change Votes Quotas
Liberal Total LIB +272 30,471 2.6396
Labor Total ALP -558 25,551 2.2134
Green Total GRN 0 11,544 1.0000

Party/Group Totals at Count 40 – partial exclusion of Alison Standen (Labor)

Candidate (Order) Party Change Votes Quotas
Jacquie Petrusma (1 Elected) LIB 0 11,544 1.0000
Rosalie Woodruff (2 Elected) GRN 0 11,544 1.0000
Dean Winter (3 Elected) ALP +2,920 12,891 1.1167
David O’Byrne (4 Elected) ALP +2,255 12,600 1.0915
Nic Street (5 Elected) LIB +91 11,548 1.0003
Bec Enders LIB +181 7,379 0.6392
Alison Standen ALP -5,733 60 0.0052
Exhausted +286 1,692 0.1466

2:00pm – two exclusions arrive at once with Liberal candidates James Walker and Dean Young excluded. Nic Street is now just short of a quota. But he may not be the next elected as Alison Standen is out next and her surplus might end up electing David O’Byrne and Dean Winter first.

9:30am – results will be updated through the day. The count will begin by distributing the preferences of the 5th placed Liberal James Walker. Totals by party and candidate are shown in the count summary tables.

12 May Updates

5:15pm – exclusion of Amy Brumby (Labor)

3:35pm – exclusion of the second Green candidate Bec Taylor and the party’s surplus beyond one quota.

2:30pm – exclusion of the final SFF candidate. David O’Byrne passes Dean Winter on the Labor ticket.

1:00pm – Exclusion of Labor’s Toby Thorpe. His preferences favour David O’Byrne 722 to 409 for Dean Winter leaving Winter just 10 votes ahead of David O’Byrne.

12:15 – Count 21 distributed Rosalie Woodruff’s small surplus. All votes came from the Animal Justice distribution.

11:30am – Mark Tanner (Animal Justice) excluded. His preferences favoured the Green and put Rosalie Woodruff over quota.

10:00am – I’ll be maintaining two tables to follow the count for the rest of the day. The first is totals by party, the second shows the totals by candidate. I’ll keep them at the top of the post with the latest commentary with earlier commentary below

11 May Updates

5:10pm – Cangelosi’s preference went pretty evenly to other Labor candidates.

4:35pm – Third SFF candidate excluded with no particular impact on party totals. Next out is the 6th placed Labor candidate Fabiano Cangelosi, who was reported to hav e been switched from Clark to block Dean Winter being nominated. It will be interesting to see how his preferences flow to others on the Labor ticket.

3:50pm – up to count 8 with the exclusion of some lower placed Green candidates. Nothing suggesting possible changes from initial predictions.

1:40pm – after the distribution of Petrusma’s surplus, Nic Street is on 0.60 quotas or 6929 votes. The other three Liberal candidates have 0.92 quotas with Bec Enders leading the pack on 3,959. Street is still favoured to win the second Liberal seat.

12:50pm – Final first preference total published. Distribution underway.

10:40am – The count will begin with the formal declaration of Jacquie Petrusma as elected with 1.26 quotas worth of votes. The distribution of her surplus will not elect another candidate so the count will then proceed by the exclusion of the lowest polling candidates, starting with George Spiliopoulos (Ungrouped), then probably Francis Flannery (Ungrouped), Robert Cairns (SFF) and Gideon Cordover (Greens). Beyond that exclusions depend on preferences.

Pre-distribution Commentary

Prospects: Green Rosalie Woodruff will be re-elected, as will Labor’s David O’Byrne and Liberal Nic Street. They will be joined by Labor’s Dean Winter, who will defeat sitting Labor MHA Alison Standen.