This post is the second in my series looking at the results of the 2025 Federal election by state.
In short Tasmania produced an emphatic victory for Labor with a state-wide two-party preferred swing of 9%.
Former state Labor Leader Rebecca White easily retained the central seat of Lyons for labor with a 10.7% swing in her favour. Big swings delivered the state’s two northern seats to Labor, Bass gained on a 9.4% swing and Braddon a massive 15.2% swing.
Given current events that look set to send Tasmania to a state election in July, some have suggested the move by Labor to force an election has been to capitalise on the Liberal Party’s disastrous Federal result.
That suggestion ignores two critical facts. The first is that Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark electoral system to elect the lower house of its Parliament so Labor’s huge two-party preferred result is irrelevant. Second, Labor’s huge two-party preferred result was constructed from a Labor primary result of 36.6% that would not deliver majority government if repeated at a state election.
That the Federal Liberal Party polled a primary vote of only 24.5% suggests that Labor could emerge as the largest party at a state election, but not as a majority government.
The most recent EMRS poll of state voting intentions reported party standings at Liberal 29 per cent (down 5), Labor 31 (up 1), Greens 14 (up 1), Jacqui Lambie Network 6 (down 2) and Independents an impressive 17 (up 5). A significant caveat on the poll is whether is was picking up washover from Federal voting intentions.
The two big Tasmanian issues are the state of the budget, and the related burden of paying to build an expensive AFL stadium at Macquarie Point. There is clear public support for the state to have an AFL team, but support for the proposed stadium is much weaker. Both major parties currently support the stadium, but the majority of cross bench members do not and opposition to the proposal is particularly strong in the state’s north.
I’ll come back to the Federal result inside the post, but first a brief diversion to the events currently unfolding in Hobart.
Is there going to be a state election?
Tasmania looks set for a July election after last week’s passage of a no confidence motion in Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
The motion was moved by Labor Leader Dean Winter, backed by the Greens, and supported by enough crossbenchers to pass. The Parliament met again on Tuesday and passed a supply bill covering the period until a new Parliament can meet after an election. Premier Rockliff then visited Governor Barbara Baker and offered advice that the House of Assembly be dissolved ahead of an election. Governor Baker is currently considering the advice and will meet the Premier again later this week. She met Labor Leader Dean Winter on Wednesday.
As the motion was in the Premier rather than the government, an immediate election could be avoided if Jeremy Rockliff resigned and was replaced by a new Liberal Leader. There seems no sign yet that the Liberal Party will change leader.
To avoid an election the Greens have offered to back the formation of a Labor government, but Labor power brokers remember the damage that past periods governing with the Greens have done to the party’s standing with the electorate.
These alternatives to an early election are no doubt part of the Governor’s deliberations. We will find out her decision later this week.
It seems no one involved with the passage of the motion thinks that the state needs a new election 16 months after the last.
It is the shortest period between elections since Queensland in the 1950s. The Gair Labor government was re-elected with a big majority in May 1956, but less than a year later a major split developed and Premier Gair and most of his cabinet were expelled from the Labor Party. Just 15 months after the previous election, the Coalition was elected to office in August 1957. Labor remained on the opposition benches for the next 32 years.
The events that may be leading to an early Tasmanian election are not as dramatic,
The current state of the House of Assembly is Liberal 14, Labor 10, Greens 5, Independents 5 and one Jacqui Lambie Network member. Two of the Independents were elected last year as Lambie Network candidates.
The Tasmanian Hare-Clark electoral system uses the five federal Divisions to elect seven members each to the House of Assembly, a total of 35 members.
As a rough guide, a party or candidates can win election by reaching the quota of 12.5%. Quotas can be filled by first preference votes, preferences from excluded candidates, and preferences from surplus to quota votes of elected candidates. As a rough guide, a party elects two members with 25%, three with 37.5%, and a majority four seats if it reaches 50%. The role of preferences means a party has a chance of electing four members if its vote reaches around 43%, but it depends on the share of vote by party as well how evenly a party’s vote is split between its candidates.
The table below shows the party vote share by division by party at the 2024 state election. It is clear from this table that both major parties need a significant boost in support to achieve majority government.
| Division | ALP | LIB | GRN | JLN | SFF | OTH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bass | 29.8 | 38.0 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 9.7 |
| Braddon | 24.7 | 45.6 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 8.8 |
| Clark | 30.5 | 27.1 | 20.9 | .. | 1.5 | 20.0 |
| Franklin | 27.3 | 34.0 | 19.8 | 4.9 | .. | 14.0 |
| Lyons | 32.8 | 37.6 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 5.6 |
| State-wide | 29.0 | 36.7 | 13.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 11.4 |