(Update: the date for the by-election has been set for 9 May.)
In a previous post published on Friday, I went through a detailed history of the Farrer electorate.
In short, the seat was created in 1949. Until 1983 the seat was based on the southern NSW rural cities of Albury and Wagga Wagga and was always won by the Liberal Party. Traditionally the Liberal Party has dominated conservative politics in Albury and Wagga Wagga while the Nationals dominated areas further north and west. (In the past decade, the Nationals have supplanted the Liberals in Wagga Wagga though this is not relevant to Farrer.)
When the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984, Albury and Wagga Wagga were divided. Wagga Wagga went in to Hume (it’s now in Riverina) while Farrer retained Albury but was stretched west along the Murray River to the South Australian border. It combined a core Liberal area around Albury with National territory further west.
It was expected that long-time Albury Mayor and Liberal candidate John Roach would win the seat in a contest against state Nationals MLA Tim Fischer. Tony Wright has written a terrific historical piece for the SMH/Age on why Roach lost to Fischer which I recommend if you can access the story. In short it involved Roach travelling to the Netherlands mid-campaign to represent Albury for its part in saving a lost KLM plane in 1934. By the time he returned Fischer had streaked ahead in the battle to win Farrer. (The story also mentions Cleaver Bunton for fans of the Whitlam dismissal saga.)
Having won the seat, Fischer represented Farrer without a Liberal challenger until retiring in 2001. The seat was won that year by current Liberal MP and now recently deposed Liberal leader Sussan Ley. She has represented the seat without a Nationals opponent since.
With her retirement, it seems certain the Liberals and Nationals will face off in a contest also involving One Nation and 2025 Independent challenger Michelle Milthorpe. It looks set to be a remarkable contest.
But the starters gun on calling a by-election must await Ley’s letter of resignation to the Speaker. There is no legislated minimum or maximum period between a vacancy and the Speaker issuing a writ to hold a by-election. Once a writ is issued, the minimum campaign period is 33 days, just under five weeks, with a maximum campaign of nine weeks.
With both Coalition parties having held the seat over the years, which of the two has greater right to claim the seat as its rightful territory?
The answer is that two decades of boundary changes have tilted the playing in favour of the Nationals. But let me start by dissecting the last contest between the parties in 2001.
The 2001 Contest for Farrer
In my previous post I dealt with how the Liberals won Farrer in 2001 despite preferences from three-quarters of Labor voters almost pushing the Nationals over the line. I won’t go into the history of preferences in 2001 but instead concentrate on where the Liberals and Nationals polled the higher primary vote in 2001.
The map below shows the current boundaries of Farrer. In 2001 the electorate did not include the northern local government areas, Carrathool, Hay, Griffith, Leeton and Narrandera. These areas are all solid National rather than Liberal territory and will have tipped the balance of the seat in the Nationals favour since 2001.
In the table below, I break the 2001 primary vote result down by local government areas at the 2001 election. Given a few council mergers, I’ve had to mix and match some of the councils listed.
The table shows that the Liberals had broad support across all areas of the electorate, but the party’s lead over the Nationals was much stronger in the populated core of the electorate around Albury. The Liberals also polled well further east in what is now Snowy Valleys Council, an area that is no longer part of Farrer.
Councils are listed west to east with bold indicating the party with the higher primary vote.
| Council | LIB % | NAT % | ALP % | ONP % | OTH % | Formal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wentworth | 27.2 | 31.6 | 15.5 | 18.7 | 7.0 | 3,222 |
| Balranald | 37.4 | 19.5 | 24.3 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 1,187 |
| Murray River | 40.3 | 25.9 | 17.7 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 4,907 |
| Edward River | 38.9 | 23.9 | 18.0 | 5.7 | 13.5 | 5,597 |
| Jerilderie | 36.0 | 34.2 | 17.6 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 789 |
| Berrigan | 35.6 | 34.1 | 17.8 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 4,583 |
| Federation | 28.9 | 37.3 | 22.1 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 7,163 |
| Greater Hume | 42.4 | 25.3 | 16.7 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 5,160 |
| Albury | 41.8 | 15.8 | 22.6 | 5.4 | 14.4 | 22,705 |
| Council Areas no longer in Farrer | ||||||
| Lockhart | 31.8 | 33.2 | 20.8 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 1,749 |
| Snowy Rivers | 38.3 | 13.8 | 28.0 | 6.8 | 13.1 | 7,698 |
In total there were 10,753 Absent, Postal, Pre-poll, Provisional and Hospital votes splitting 35.3% Liberal, 25.5% National, 19.7% Labor, 6.2% One Nation and 13.3% other.
While I am comparing party votes above, it has to mentioned that the younger and female Sussan Ley was viewed as a much better candidate than the Nationals’ Bill Bott. The only council area where Bott had a clear majority was Federation, which includes the former Corowa Council where Bott had been a long serving Mayor. It is fair to say that perceptions of the two candidates worked in the Liberal Party’s favour.
Have boundary changes since 2001 tilted Farrer in the National Party’s favour?
The short answer is yes.
Based on two year-old local government enrolments, there are around 85,000 electors in the council areas that formed parts of Farrer in 2001.
There around 12,000 voters in the Snowy Rivers and Lockhart Council areas that strongly supported Ley in 2001 that have been removed from the seat through redistributions.
There are around 40,000 voters in the Carrathool, Hay, Griffith, Leeton and Narrandera local government areas making up almost a third of the current Farrer. These areas have a stronger and longer history of voting National than Liberal.
The Coalition agreement allows the Nationals to contest the seat with Sussan Ley’s retirement. The above figures suggest that current boundaries have tilted Farrer in the Nationals’ favour since 2001.
Both parties have a chance of winning Farrer. As I have already mentioned, boundary changes might have tilted the seat in favour of the Nationals. As in 2001, who each party chooses as candidate could sway the result.
But none of this takes account of a very different contest likely to unfold at the by-election that will involve One Nation, Independents and goodness how many other candidates.
Who will contest the seat?
I don’t want to start turning this blog site into a news service, but I will mention some early developments on possible candidacies.
- The Nationals have indicated they will contest the by-election.
- As the holding party, the Liberal Party have indicated they will contest the by-election
- No announcement from the Labor Party, but given Farrer is an unwinnable seat for Labor, the party is unlikely to contest the by-election.
- Independent Michelle Milthorpe finished second in Farrer in 2025 and has already started campaigning.
NSW Independent MLA for Murray Helen Dalton has stated an interest in contesting the by-election. Her seat covers the western end of Farrer.Dalton will stay in state parliament.- One Nation are seeking a candidate.
- The by-election looks set to attract a huge field of candidates.
It all points to being a willing contest and complex count on election night.
I have seen a change in the Farrer community.The matured educated voters not following the past conservative blind voting trends.(the community is hurting).
The preference deals may break or make the next members election victory or loss.
Its not just the candidates ,it’s the campaign manager or deal broker who will get the preferences. Watch this space to see who runs the campaign and cuts a deal , who pays the bills follow the money trail.
The political differences in candidates & geopolitical locations so split and divided by the choice of candidates.( those who follow the like sheep and those who study the candidates)all these makes this ,a make or break for the conservative movement.
To quote Liberal senator & deputy Jane Hume on Sky News.
“ not a Federal House of Representatives Liberal member could be in the NSW or Victoria”.( see if she is correct?)
We will see this election as a test to the future of the Australia voting maturity and community consciousness.
COMMENT: The word ‘deals’ keeps being thrown around when often parties don’t do deals, they just do what is their own best interest in recommending preferences. Plus whatever ‘deals’ are done, it doesn’t matter unless a how-to-vote is placed in the hand of every voter. And even then we know that voters more often than not make up their own minds.
I think I prefer the word ‘deal’ when it comes to preference agreements between political parties. I also prefer the word ‘advocate’ rather than the word ‘recommend’ to describe these deals.
COMMENT: What parties put on their how-to-votes is their recommendation. They are advocating a recommendation of preferences, which is using two words to say a party is recommending preferences.
The dictionary definition of ‘deal’ uses words like ‘agreement’, ‘bargain’, ‘interaction’ or ‘arrangement’. That means the Liberal decision to recommend preferences for One Nation does not qualify as a deal as One Nation has not reciprocated. That’s if the two parties even discussed the issue. Labor and the Greens always recommend preferences for each other and do so at every election. The two parties only have brief discussions on the subject and they do it anyway. Is that a deal or simple self-interest? Labor and the Greens almost always recommend preferences for centrist Independents. The Independents do not reciprocate. Again, it’s not a deal by Labor and the Greens with the independent, it’s self-interest.
If the final pairing for this by-election ends up being Milthorpe v One Nation, would it be the first contest ever to not have either Labor or one of the coalition parties in the final pairing?
COMMENT: I don’t know off the top of my head. Federally it would have been a long time ago, and certainly long before I was following politics.
Definitely not the first, maybe the first since Menzies and the modern parties though.
It has happened 4 times in Federal history. 1931 in Hunter where both Labor and Lang Labor were competing and the final pairing was Lang Labor vs Independent. Then in Northern Territory it happened twice in 39 and 43 with Independent vs “Independent Labor” and Werriwa in 43 where it was Independent vs “Independent Country”. Then you have some examples of “Independent Country” vs “Independent Country”. But all are very long ago and you can argue the last three aren’t truly one of the coalition parties or Labor not being present.
Won’t be one nation mate. The Liberal and Labor voters will move towards Milthorpe. Albury was a conservative area but the hospital and lack of effort will see a total wave. One nation will just prove a nuisance for Milthorpes only competition the Nats.
How did the result work out for you? How can a safe LNP seat change to ON? Did they get in on National or Liberal preferences if so why didn’t they preference each other?
can almost guarantee neither Labor or Liberal will be in the final pairing. One Nation and Milthore seem likely. Nats and Dalton are wildcards. Dalton would surely make the pairing if she ran. If she runs with One Nation she will probably have it in the bag.
Helen Dalton has just announced she will not run. Preferring to stay and fight for water security for the region.
Will One Nation preference the Nationals ahead of the Liberals or vice versa? Greens as well?
COMMENT: The Liberals and Nationals will recommend preferences for each other on how-to-vote material ahead of every other candidate. There would be no point being in Coalition if they didn’t. I don’t know what One Nation and the Greens will recommend. It is uncommon these days for the Coalition parties to compete in seats where the two parties have strength so what others do in recommending preferences between the two parties could be important.
Of more interest might be what the Liberals and Nationals recommend for preferences between One Nation and Independents just in case both Coalition candidates are excluded.
What are the chances that the Nats and Libs do NOT preference anyone beyond their own? I am not sure that has ever happened outside of OPV contests. Normally you would think that they would put One Nation third perhaps but with the situation as it is an argument could be made to let an IND sit to contain the damage. That said, if it became known that the Liberals (I assume they would do it more than the Nats) preferenced an IND over ON and that was the decisive factor I can imagine the outcry. Some of that will depend on whether Helen Dalton runs as an IND or falls in with ON. I would imagine the Greens would put One Nation at or near the bottom as they usually do.
Sorting this out could make Calwell and Bradfield look like a walk in the park. Not only to determine the winner but the implications of what could happen. We all know that Casey Briggs has big shoes to fill but this will be a big one to walk us through for his first crack. I hope he is well stocked with beverages that night.
COMMENT: Major parties issue how-to-votes to attract first preferences and to maximise formal voting by those who vote for the party. It would be highly unusual for major parties not to fill all numbers. The nearest the major parties came to it was in South Australia at the 2016 Federal election when both issued how-to-vote with two preference options, one preferencing the other party and one to the Nick Xenophon Team.
Is Dalton a ‘conservative’ Independent? Must be if there’s a chance she’ll preference ON. I could Imagine Labor and Greens will preference Milthorpe. Labor will vote 1 Milthorpe if they don’t run.. Many Libs will vote Milthorpe too, especially in Albury. Whats the % of voters in Albury?
COMMENT: The enrolment is around 125,000. 41,000 are in the City of Albury, another 8,000 in surrounding Greater Hume Shire. There are around 10,000 in Federation Shire (Corowa), 17,000 further north in Griffith and 8,000 in Leeton.
Dalton was elected as a Shooters Fishers and Farmers candidate in 2019 defeating the Nationals and was re-elected as an Independent in 2023. Labor is not expected to contest the by-election.
Another thought – I wonder if there’ll be an ‘Indi’ efefct from across the border? Both Helen Haines herself and supporters helping out Milthorpe, and people in Farrer seeing that an Independent works in a rural seat. HH is a hard worker and has a good reputation.
No doubt Simon Holmes a Court will be throwing $$$ at Milthorpe’s campaign. Unfortunately, I’d rank her a good chance of picking up the seat. It is however just what this country doesn’t need .. another teal moderate sitting in the cross bench.
True, we don’t need the Teals on the crossbench, we need them on the treasury benches, or at the very least the opposition benches.
Listen Gronk the problem in that area is the consevatives who have done nothing a moderate is the answer. Or mayne another National who puts money into her own gun club.
And a One Nation wackjob or Coalition wet paper towel would be preferable? The less insanity the better, I would say.
COMMENT: OK, that’s a couple of comments both ways. No more. I’m not filling up this post with a back and forth on the respective qualities of teals and parties.
Yet Kevin, you seem to have no problem with Puppet Masters like the Minerals Association, Rinehart and Anthony Pratt et al donating millions to the Liberals and the Coal industry financially supporting the Nationals.
For the 2025 election, despite being a NSW electorate, Farrer had PPVCs in Victoria: Cobram, Echuca, Mildura and Yarrawonga.
Was this because not only are the four bigger towns or rural cities than the NSW ‘across the Murray’ towns of respectively Tocumwal, Moama, Buringa and Mulwala, but also due to the small size of these NSW halls used on election day? PPVCs must cater for big volumes of electors.
The small NSW towns of Murray Downs and Tooleybuc, NSW must not have warranted a PPVC in Victoria’s Swan Hill.
Since Albury was sufficiently large to have a good PPVC, there wasn’t one in Victoria’s Wodonga.
Is this the only Australian Federal electorate that has many PPVCs in a bordering state?
COMMENT: The PPVCs were already there for voters in Indi, Nicholas and Mallee. It was easy to make them joint pre-polls rather than force voters to complete declaration votes. The AEC has previous voting figures to judge whether to have a joint pre-poll.
Bean, and no doubt other ACT electorates had PPVCs in Queanbeyan. Eden Monaro had them in the ACT. Maybe around the Queensland border?
COMMENT: The only places in the country with cross border PPVCs are along the Murray River, around the borders of the ACT, and in small parts of the border between NSW and Queensland.
Justin Clancy, the NSW Liberal member for Albury is apparently considering a run which I assume would then trigger a state by-election as well.
COMMENT: Yes but under NSW electoral law a by-election isn’t triggered until after the Federal by-election. It gives an opportunity for a member to contest their former seat.
It will also be interesting to see the impact of the Lib/Nat/ONP and Millthorpe’s posturing messaging on Migration. The growth and diversification of migration workforce across the electoral region, not just in Ag, but importantly essential services like health. They may not significantly impact voting numbers directly (yet), but it will be an influence on voters who rely upon their presence and increasingly understand their value. Significantly while this influence may once have been concentrated to the Griffith/MIA region, it’s now far more widespread and embedded all along the NSW side of the Murray/Milewa. Its also younger, and both culturally and religiously diverse, including Christian – makes for a fascinating by election
I get giddy at the thought of all the data that this by-election will yield! Apart from determining if Farrer is a Nationals or Liberals seat:
– How low will the Lib primary be?
– Can One Nation sustain a campaign with a candidate who doesn’t cause embarrassment/offence or withdraw?
– What is One Nation’s real current primary vote?
– How much of Sussan Ley’s vote was tied to her profile/tenure?
– How many Libs will preference a (teal-ish?) independent over One Nation?
– Will One Nation pick ALP voters if party not running (hard to measure, I guess)
– Will ALP/Green voters (~20%) give primary vote to Michelle Milthorpe and see her primary at 40+%?
– How will Pauline Hanson react if One Nation wins primary vote but loses on preferences?
– Is there an anti-Pauline vote that outweighs her current strong polling?
Never mind all the assorted other candidates.
Very much looking forward to your analyses, Anthony. Love your work.
A number of well known commentators have speculated that they think there is a reasonable chance that the Liberals and the Nations won’t take this seat. I am not necessarily endorsing the viewpoint but this was from someone who was heavily involved in Liberal politics over the years. They (as well as I) foresee that Milthorpe will likely occupy one of the two final spots. I think it will come down to whether ON can recruit a candidate that can run a decent campaign and the ON vote actually sticks compared to the polls.
Im curious to see if this data help decisions about expansion of the parliament too.
Thanks for getting this one up, Antony.
It almost feels like a real magnifying glass is firmly over this bye election. And from a mug punters point of view, and the snippets I’ve seen on the various news outlets, ON has got a fairly popular following. And I’ll go so far as to say, there is a groundswell of the more quiet voters being very drawn to ON.
It seems this election will be a litmus test for the next Federal “bunfight”?!
I expect Sussan will do the right thing by the Libs and campaign for them…the Electorate is not Hicksville and Hanson will be lucky to get 10% imho.
What would it take for The Greens to win Farrer?
What is their biggest hurdle?
COMMENT: The biggest hurdle is getting its vote above 5%. Inland rural seats always record some of the Greens’ lowest level of support.
There is plenty of fear and loathing of One Nation in these comments. Numerous One Nation members will be arriving from well outside the electorate to do on the ground campaigning. Now that the election date is known transport arrangements can be made. Be afraid of the Orange Army.