A running post where I will log updates I am making to the ABC election site. For each update I include a link to the relevant page on the ABC website.
Results are updated regularly at the ABC results website. I’ll mainly add commentary where I change value that affect preferences.
Sunday 22 May
7:55pm – Ryan (QLD) – postal vote LNP v Green preference flow released showing 7.1.% to Independent and 28.9% to National. These flows now being applied to the total first preferences for Ryan.
7:45pm – Cowper (NSW) – postal vote National versus Independent preference flow released showing 66.5% to Independent and 33.5% to National. These flows now being applied to the total first preferences for Cowper.
4:45pm – Overall summary update. Labor has a definite 72 seats. At this stage Labor can reach 76 seats and majority government. Macnamara in inner Melbourne and Richmond on the NSW North Coast are complex three-cornered contests where Labor is better placed to win. Beyond those Labor is on 50.9% in both Bennelong in Sydney and Deakin in Melbourne. Victory in both seats would bring Labor to 76 seats. Labor currently lead in Lyons which has the potential to be a 77th seat.
Today has mainly been a day when the AEC is trying to reconcile the ballot papers and paperwork returned from polling places. Tomorrow the AEC will get down to some more serious new counting as well as check-counting all votes counted on Saturday.
both is possible. Labor is
3:20pm – Sydney (NSW) – Labor-Green preference estimate based on postal votes now in use.
1:55pm – Bradfield (NSW) – A preference count from postal votes splits 25.7% to Liberal Paul Fletcher and 74.3% to Independent Nicolette Boele. Applied to current first preference votes that produces a narrow Liberal two-party lead with Fletcher on 52.2%.
1:45pm – Calare (NSW) – A Postal vote preference count reveals that 64.6% of preferences are flowing to Independent Kate Hook and 35.4% to National Andrew Gee. These have been applied to the current first preference count cutting the National margin substantially though Gee will still win.
1:30pm – Lingiari (NT) – I am extremely close to calling this for Labor. Postal votes will be added later today at which point it may be possible to declare Labor’s Marion Scrymgour the winner.
1:20pm – Richmond (NSW) – there are several large pre-poll centres that could report today and this may close the gap between 2nd placed Labor and the 3rd placed National. The 4th to 5th placed candidates are One Nation, United Australia and Liberal Democrats and there are enough votes amongst them to allow the Nationals to reach second place which wou