Election result Updates

A running post where I will log updates I am making to the ABC election site. For each update I include a link to the relevant page on the ABC website.

Results are updated regularly at the ABC results website. I’ll mainly add commentary where I change value that affect preferences.

Sunday 22 May

7:55pmRyan (QLD) – postal vote LNP v Green preference flow released showing 7.1.% to Independent and 28.9% to National. These flows now being applied to the total first preferences for Ryan.

7:45pmCowper (NSW) – postal vote National versus Independent preference flow released showing 66.5% to Independent and 33.5% to National. These flows now being applied to the total first preferences for Cowper.

4:45pm – Overall summary update. Labor has a definite 72 seats. At this stage Labor can reach 76 seats and majority government. Macnamara in inner Melbourne and Richmond on the NSW North Coast are complex three-cornered contests where Labor is better placed to win. Beyond those Labor is on 50.9% in both Bennelong in Sydney and Deakin in Melbourne. Victory in both seats would bring Labor to 76 seats. Labor currently lead in Lyons which has the potential to be a 77th seat.

Today has mainly been a day when the AEC is trying to reconcile the ballot papers and paperwork returned from polling places. Tomorrow the AEC will get down to some more serious new counting as well as check-counting all votes counted on Saturday.

both is possible. Labor is
3:20pm – Sydney (NSW) – Labor-Green preference estimate based on postal votes now in use.

1:55pm – Bradfield (NSW) – A preference count from postal votes splits 25.7% to Liberal Paul Fletcher and 74.3% to Independent Nicolette Boele. Applied to current first preference votes that produces a narrow Liberal two-party lead with Fletcher on 52.2%.

1:45pm – Calare (NSW) – A Postal vote preference count reveals that 64.6% of preferences are flowing to Independent Kate Hook and 35.4% to National Andrew Gee. These have been applied to the current first preference count cutting the National margin substantially though Gee will still win.

1:30pm – Lingiari (NT) – I am extremely close to calling this for Labor. Postal votes will be added later today at which point it may be possible to declare Labor’s Marion Scrymgour the winner.

1:20pm – Richmond (NSW) – there are several large pre-poll centres that could report today and this may close the gap between 2nd placed Labor and the 3rd placed National. The 4th to 5th placed candidates are One Nation, United Australia and Liberal Democrats and there are enough votes amongst them to allow the Nationals to reach second place which wou

15 thoughts on “Election result Updates”

  1. Hi can you put up a current 2022 Federal pendulum and update accordingly please.

    COMMENT: Not before there is a result before every seat.

  2. There’s been a lot of talk in the media about Labor’s primary vote percentage this election. For comparison, what was the LNP primary vote percentage at the 2019 election?

    COMMENT: The Coalition’s first preference vote in 2019 was 41.4%.

  3. Antony, when you have a moment would you please explain when and how the prepoll votes were counted, and when they were included in total counts/ Thankyou.

    ANSWER: All pre-polls cast at pre-poll centres within a district are counted on election night. The much smaller category of outside district pre-polls are counted as declaration votes in the week after the election after being returned to their home district.

  4. Hi Anthony – where do you think the overall turnout % will end up?

    COMMENT: I expect it to finish slightly down due Covid but still over 90%.

  5. Robert Greenshields

    Would it be possible to accurately state the true party figures as a percentage of voting population, and not push misinformation under the guise of “Coalition”? Four parties make up the Coalition, and each stands alone on election day. Barnaby Joyce re confirmed that in the media yesterday when he stated he was not in the Libs, but a Nats member. The combined totals do not accurately identify the Nats position, ie, 4% of the vote, 4 out of every 100 citizens, When pointing out the decline in the ALP vote it would also be interesting to compare the decline in a but 4% vote of the Nats of .25%

    COMMENT: The data is published on the ABC Party Totals page. Select the “All parties” tab and the data is broken down to individual parties, including the four Coalition parties.

  6. Hi Antony,
    The analyses I’ve seen give only a coalition vote total. I’m interested in seeing the totals for Libs and Nats separately. Can you post that?

    COMMENT: The data is published on the ABC Party Totals page. Select the “All parties” tab and the data is broken down to individual parties, including the four Coalition parties.

  7. New AfterPreference3CP results/projection component on the ABC website? This would be awesome for seats like Brisbane, Ryan, Richmond, Macnamara next federal election. It is interesting to think about how to visualise a 3CP from a UX perspective.

    COMMENT: That is better done after the election when the preference distribution is available. There is a limit to the amount of data the AEC can publish while it is trying to carry out a complex physical count of ballot papers.

  8. I haven’t seen the publishing of three-candidate-preferred results before this election. Is it a new innovation?

    COMMENT: The AEC has carried out three-candidate counts two or three times in the past to resolve a final candidate pairing. This is the first election where the data was made available. It had to be published as a manual operation as the AEC’s election management system does not allow such totals to be recorded or published as part of its result site.

  9. I don’t know if the data reveals it but how many donkey votes were there?

    They are a legitimate vote but they also demonstrate an apathy in the electorate.

    Also has the data come through on how many candidates were elected on first preferences?

    COMMENT: A donkey vote is one where the voter simply numbers from 1 to the bottom of the ballot paper. It is a formal vote and counted as such. It is not always possible to determine if such a vote was an intentional expression of intention or just a simple numbering to get the vote obligation out of the way.

  10. Hi Antony,
    1. Just wondering when the AEC normally releases the theoretical 2PP (ALP vs LIB/NAT) count for seats for which the ALP or LIB/NAT didn’t make the final two (e.g. Mayo, Kooying, Melbourne etc.)?
    2. Is there any way to view the 3CP in Macnamara at the moment? Unfortunately, the AEC doesn’t seem to be publishing it anymore.
    Thanks and cheers.

    COMMENT: The two-party preferred counts won’t be available until some time after the election. The AEC stopped publishing it’s 3CP count once it had resolved that Macnamara would be a Labor versus Liberal contest. The final 3CP count can be resolved from the distribution of preferences when published.

  11. On election night the computer gives away seats, and sometimes takes them back based on further results (so party counts can sometimes go down) – were there any seats like that at this election where the computer actually got it wrong? (I.e. the computer gave the seat to one candidate, but then at the end of the count it was actually won by someone else). I expect most of the time the seat will move back to “In doubt”, but then end up going the way of the original prediction.

    COMMENT: There were none that were wrong after about 10% was counted.

  12. Hi Antony,
    Just wondering if you think the final runoff in the division of Richmond will end up being ALP vs NAT or ALP vs GRN? Currently is ALP vs NAT on the AEC website but was curious whether GRN can make it into second place once preferences from lower placed candidates are distributed.
    Many thanks.

    COMMENT: The AEC checked preference flows from lower placed candidates on the ballot paper and Richmond will finish as a Labor versus National contest.

  13. Hi Antony,
    Just wondering how the AEC counts the 2PP (Coalition vs ALP) in a seat like Nicholls where two Coalition parties (LIB and NAT) are contesting? Since NAT made the 2CP, would it be correct to say that the 2PP will be counted based on NAT vs ALP, irrelevant where voters put LIB on their ballot paper?
    I ask, as I am curious which pile (Coalition or ALP) a ballot is put into if it has preferenced candidates in an order such as 1. LIB, 2. ALP, 3. NAT.
    Many thanks.

    COMMENT: The National is the winning candidate so the two-party preferred count will be done as National versus Labor.

  14. Antony do you believe the liberals will have majorities on two party preferred votes in Wentworth, North Sydney and Indi or no ?

    COMMENT: I believe they will but we will found out in the next day or two. North Sydney would require more than 70% of all other candidate’s preferences. The preferences to Labor were 68% in Warringah, 74% in Goldstein and 75% in Kooyong.

Leave a Reply to sbiber Cancel reply