Draft Victorian State Electoral Boundaries Released

I have double checked all my calculations and this post has been re-written to include an electoral pendulum for the draft boundaries as well as an updated table of margin changes.

UPDATE: I’ve published a report on the make-up of all electorates. You can find it at this link.

You can find maps of all new districts, details of changes, and the Commissioner’s reasoning for the changes on the Electoral Boundaries Commission website.

In broad summary, the major changes produced by the redistribution are –

  • The Electoral Boundaries Commission listed 10 seats as abolished and 10 created, but some of these are merely name changes to represent shifts in boundaries.
  • In net terms, the redistribution has abolished two seats in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs and created a seat each in Melbourne’s outer west and outer north-west. One middle-distance south-east Melbourne seat has been abolished and replaced by a new seat on Melbourne’s south-east fringe.
  • Boundary changes are extensive in the eastern suburbs, but the impact can be summarised as follows. Burwood (ALP 3.3%) has been replaced by Ashwood (ALP 2.1%) and Forest Hill (LIB 1.2%) replaced by Glen Waverley (LIB 0.8%). Ferntree Gully (LIB 1.6%) and Mount Waverley (ALP 1.8%) have been abolished. Bayswater flips from being a Labor seat (ALP 0.4%) to a notional Liberal seat (LIB 0.9%).
  • South-eastern Keysborough (ALP 14.9%) has been abolished and the new seat of Pakenham (ALP 3.0%) created on Melbourne’s south-east fringe. In associated changes to create Pakenham, Gembrook (LIB 0.8%) is replaced by Berwick (LIB 1.0%), Bass flips from (ALP 2.4%) to (LIB 2.4%), and Hastings goes the opposite way, switching from (LIB 1.1%) to (ALP 0.4%).
  • Prahran (GRN 7.5% v LIB) has become a Labor seat based on the new boundaries, though this in no way suggests the Greens won’t win the contest in 2022. The change in first preferences on the new boundaries sees the Liberal vote slip from first place on 34.5% to second on 29.5%, Labor rises from 28.9% to 33.3%, while the Greens stay in third place with the party’s vote down slightly from 28.1% to 27.9%. This translates into a 5% two-party shift from Liberal to Labor and makes it harder for the Greens to win from third place on Labor preferences as they have at the last two elections. But again, this doesn’t mean the Greens can’t or won’t win on the new boundaries in 2022.
  • West of the Yarra, Altona (ALP 14.6%) is replaced by Point Cook (ALP 12.4%) and there is a new seat called Laverton (ALP 24.0%).
  • In Melbourne’s north-west, well over quota Yuroke (ALP 20.3%) has been split into two news seats, Greenvale (ALP 22.3%) and Kalkallo (ALP 20.4%). Further east, Mill Park (ALP 24.0%) has been replaced by Morang (ALP 25.2%).
  • In western Victoria, Wendouree (ALP 10.3%) is replaced by Eureka (ALP 13.4%), the changes involved also switching Ripon (LIB 0.02%) to (ALP 2.7%). The Labor margin for Buninyong slips from 12.2% to 7.3%.
  • Seats weakened for Labor include Albert Park (13.1% to 9.2%) and Buninyong (12.2% to 7.3%). Strengthened are Narre Warren South (6.9% to 10.7%) and the Premier’s seat of Mulgrave (12.7% to 16.4%).
  • The Liberal margin in Polwarth slips from 5.4% to 2.3% as the seat moves deeper into the Surf Coast.
  • The Green margin in Brunswick increases from 0.6% to 2.3%.
  • Labor won 55 seats at the 2018 election. They lose Keysborough and Mount Waverley (abolished) and Bass and Bayswater (become notional Liberal). They gain Hastings, Prahran and Ripon on the new boundaries, and the new seats of Greenvale and Kalkallo (in place of Yuroke), Laverton and Pakenham. Labor now has a notional 57 seats.
  • The Liberal Party have slipped from 21 to 20 seats. The party has lost Ferntree Gully (abolished), Hastings and Ripon are notional losses to Labor, but notional gains are Bass and Bayswater.
  • The Greens notionally lose Prahran.
  • There is no significant change in the swing required for a change of government.
    • Draft Electoral Pendulum

      Labor (57 seats) Liberal/National (20/6)
      Margin Electorate Margin Electorate
      ALP 0.4 Hastings (LIB MP) LIB 0.1 Caulfield
      ALP 0.4 Hawthorn LIB 0.4 Eildon
      ALP 0.6 Nepean LIB 0.4 Sandringham
      ALP 2.1 Ashwood LIB 0.6 Brighton
      ALP 2.7 Ripon (LIB MP) LIB 0.6 Croydon
      ALP 2.9 Box Hill LIB 0.7 Glen Waverley
      ALP 3.0 Pakenham LIB 1.0 Berwick
      ALP 3.5 Ringwood LIB 1.1 Bayswater (ALP MP)
      ALP 3.9 South Barwon LIB 1.9 Evelyn
      ALP 5.6 Melton LIB 2.3 Polwarth
      ALP 5.9 Richmond (v GRN) LIB 2.4 Bass (ALP MP)
      ALP 7.3 Buninyong LIB 3.3 South-West Coast
      ALP 8.4 Monbulk LIB 4.2 Warrandyte
      ALP 9.0 Cranbourne LIB 4.6 Kew
      ALP 9.2 Albert Park LIB 4.9 Rowville
      ALP 10.0 Eltham LIB 5.0 Mornington
      ALP 10.2 Frankston LIB 5.4 Bulleen
      ALP 10.3 Geelong LIB 6.2 Malvern
      ALP 10.5 Narre Warren North LIB 6.6 Narracan
      ALP 10.7 Narre Warren South LIB 9.4 Benambra
      ALP 11.4 Bellarine NAT 12.0 Ovens Valley
      ALP 11.5 Bentleigh NAT 13.7 Gippsland South
      ALP 12.0 Carrum NAT 15.3 Euroa
      ALP 12.1 Bendigo East NAT 17.6 Gippsland East
      ALP 12.4 Ivanhoe NAT 21.6 Lowan
      ALP 12.4 Point Cook NAT 24.0 Murray Plains
      ALP 12.5 Niddrie
      ALP 12.8 Prahran (GRN MP) Independent (3) / Green (2)
      ALP 13.2 Macedon IND 0.3 Mildura (v NAT)
      ALP 13.4 Eureka GRN 1.6 Melbourne (v ALP)
      ALP 13.4 Mordialloc IND 1.8 Morwell (v ALP)
      ALP 13.6 Werribee (9.2 v IND) GRN 2.1 Brunswick (v ALP)
      ALP 14.6 Sunbury IND 5.3 Shepparton (v LIB)
      ALP 15.0 Clarinda
      ALP 15.8 Essendon
      ALP 16.1 Oakleigh
      ALP 16.4 Mulgrave
      ALP 16.4 Yan Yean
      ALP 17.7 Sydenham
      ALP 17.7 Tarneit
      ALP 18.1 Bundoora
      ALP 18.6 Bendigo West
      ALP 18.8 St Albans
      ALP 19.0 Williamstown
      ALP 19.1 Lara
      ALP 20.4 Kalkallo
      ALP 20.7 Preston (v GRN)
      ALP 22.1 Pascoe Vale
      ALP 22.3 Greenvale
      ALP 23.4 Dandenong
      ALP 24.0 Laverton
      ALP 24.5 Kororoit
      ALP 25.2 Broadmeadows
      ALP 25.2 Morang
      ALP 27.4 Thomastown
      ALP 28.7 Footscray
      ALP 33.2 Northcote

      Old and Estimated New Margins for all Districts

      Note – all margins in this table are estimated two party preferred margins. Seats actually held by Greens and Independents are indicated. Estimated two-candidate preferred margins for selected seats are shown below the table.

      Division Old Margin New Margin Change
      Albert Park ALP 13.1% ALP 9.2% 3.9 to LIB
      Ashwood (ex-Burwood) ALP 3.3% ALP 2.1% 1.2 to LIB
      Bass ALP 2.4% LIB 2.4% 4.8 to LIB
      Bayswater ALP 0.4% LIB 1.1% 1.5 to LIB
      Bellarine ALP 11.5% ALP 11.4% 0.1 to LIB
      Benambra LIB 8.9% LIB 9.4% 0.5 to LIB
      Bendigo East ALP 12.1% ALP 12.1% no change
      Bendigo West ALP 18.6% ALP 18.6% no change
      Bentleigh ALP 11.9% ALP 11.5% 0.4 to LIB
      Berwick (ex-Gembrook) LIB 0.8% LIB 1.0% 0.2 to LIB
      Box Hill ALP 2.1% ALP 2.9% 0.8 to ALP
      Brighton LIB 1.1% LIB 0.6% 0.5 to ALP
      Broadmeadows ALP 30.3% ALP 25.2% 5.1 to LIB
      Brunswick (GRN held) ALP 34.4% ALP 34.6% 0.2 to ALP
      Bulleen LIB 5.8% LIB 5.4% 0.4 to ALP
      Bundoora ALP 17.4% ALP 18.1% 0.7 to ALP
      Buninyong ALP 12.2% ALP 7.3% 4.9 to LIB
      Carrum ALP 11.9% ALP 12.0% 0.1 to ALP
      Caulfield LIB 0.3% LIB 0.1% 0.2 to ALP
      Clarinda ALP 17.4% ALP 15.0% 2.4 to LIB
      Cranbourne ALP 11.0% ALP 9.0% 2.0 to LIB
      Croydon LIB 2.1% LIB 0.6% 1.5 to ALP
      Dandenong ALP 23.9% ALP 23.4% 0.5 to LIB
      Eildon LIB 2.4% LIB 0.4% 2.0 to ALP
      Eltham ALP 9.1% ALP 10.0% 0.9 to ALP
      Essendon ALP 15.9% ALP 15.8% 0.1 to LIB
      Eureka (ex-Wendouree) ALP 10.3% ALP 13.4% 3.1 to ALP
      Euroa NAT 15.4% NAT 15.3% 0.1 to ALP
      Evelyn LIB 2.6% LIB 1.9% 0.7 to ALP
      Ferntree Gully (abolished) LIB 1.6% .. ..
      Footscray ALP 28.1% ALP 28.7% 0.6 to ALP
      Frankston ALP 9.7% ALP 10.2% 0.5 to ALP
      Geelong ALP 10.1% ALP 10.3% 0.2 to ALP
      Gippsland East NAT 17.6% NAT 17.6% no change
      Gippsland South NAT 15.3% NAT 13.7% 1.6 to ALP
      Glen Waverley (ex-Forest Hill) LIB 1.2% LIB 0.7% 0.5 to ALP
      Greenvale (new seat) .. ALP 22.3% ..
      Hastings LIB 1.1% ALP 0.4% 1.5 to ALP
      Hawthorn ALP 0.4% ALP 0.4% no change
      Ivanhoe ALP 12.4% ALP 12.4% no change
      Kalkallo (new seat) .. ALP 20.4% ..
      Kew LIB 4.8% LIB 4.6% 0.2 to ALP
      Keysborough (abolished) ALP 14.9% .. ..
      Kororoit ALP 25.6% ALP 24.5% 1.1 to LIB
      Lara ALP 19.1% ALP 19.1% no change
      Laverton (new seat) .. ALP 24.0% ..
      Lowan NAT 23.5% NAT 21.6% 1.9 to ALP
      Macedon ALP 13.2% ALP 13.2% no change
      Malvern LIB 6.1% LIB 6.2% 0.1 to LIB
      Melbourne (GRN held) ALP 25.3% ALP 25.0% 0.3 to LIB
      Melton ALP 4.3% ALP 5.6% 1.3 to ALP
      Mildura (IND held) NAT 5.6% NAT 6.2% 0.6 to NAT
      Monbulk ALP 8.6% ALP 8.4% 0.2 to LIB
      Morang (ex-Mill Park) ALP 24.9% ALP 25.2% 0.3 to ALP
      Mordialloc ALP 12.9% ALP 13.4% 0.5 to ALP
      Mornington LIB 5.0% LIB 5.0% no change
      Morwell (IND held) ALP 2.4% ALP 2.4% no change
      Mount Waverley (abolished) ALP 1.8% .. ..
      Mulgrave ALP 12.7% ALP 16.4% 3.7 to ALP
      Murray Plains NAT 24.0% NAT 24.0% no change
      Narracan LIB 7.3% LIB 6.6% 0.7 to ALP
      Narre Warren North ALP 9.8% ALP 10.5% 0.7 to ALP
      Narre Warren South ALP 6.9% ALP 10.7% 3.8 to ALP
      Nepean ALP 0.9% ALP 0.6% 0.3 to LIB
      Niddrie ALP 12.6% ALP 12.5% 0.1 to LIB
      Northcote ALP 33.2% ALP 33.2% no change
      Oakleigh ALP 15.8% ALP 16.1% 0.3 to ALP
      Ovens Valley NAT 12.6% NAT 12.0% 0.6 to ALP
      Pakenham (new seat) .. ALP 3.0% ..
      Pascoe Vale ALP 18.3% ALP 22.1% 3.8 to ALP
      Point Cook (ex-Altona) ALP 14.6% ALP 12.4% 2.2 to LIB
      Polwarth LIB 5.4% LIB 2.3% 3.1 to ALP
      Prahran (GRN held) ALP 7.6% ALP 12.8% 5.2 to ALP
      Preston ALP 28.5% ALP 28.5% no change
      Richmond ALP 31.7% ALP 31.3% 0.4 to LIB
      Ringwood ALP 2.8% ALP 3.5% 0.7 to ALP
      Ripon LIB 0.0% ALP 2.7% 2.7 to ALP
      Rowville LIB 5.7% LIB 4.9% 0.8 to ALP
      Sandringham LIB 0.6% LIB 0.4% 0.2 to ALP
      Shepparton (IND held) LIB 11.7% LIB 11.7% no change
      South Barwon ALP 4.6% ALP 3.9% 0.7 to LIB
      South-West Coast LIB 2.3% LIB 3.3% 1.0 to LIB
      St Albans ALP 21.5% ALP 18.8% 2.7 to LIB
      Sunbury ALP 14.3% ALP 14.6% 0.3 to ALP
      Sydenham ALP 17.9% ALP 17.7% 0.2 to LIB
      Tarneit ALP 18.0% ALP 17.7% 0.3 to LIB
      Thomastown ALP 27.2% ALP 27.4% 0.2 to ALP
      Warrandyte LIB 3.9% LIB 4.2% 0.3 to LIB
      Werribee ALP 12.6% ALP 13.6% 1.0 to ALP
      Williamstown ALP 22.1% ALP 19.0% 3.1 to LIB
      Yan Yean ALP 17.0% ALP 16.4% 0.6 to LIB
      Yuroke (abolished) ALP 20.3% .. ..

      Estimated Labor/Green Margins

      Division Old Margin New Margin Change
      Brunswick (ALP v GRN) GRN 0.6% GRN 2.3% 1.7 to GRN
      Melbourne (ALP v GRN) GRN 1.3% GRN 1.6% 0.3 to GRN
      Northcote (ALP v GRN) ALP 1.7% ALP 1.7% no change
      Preston (ALP v GRN) ALP 20.7% ALP 20.7% no change
      Richmond (ALP v GRN) ALP 5.5% ALP 5.9% 0.4 to ALP

      Further notes on Non-2PP Contests

      Benambra – Liberal margin versus Independent nudges upwards from 2.4% to 2.6%.

      Geelong – Labor margin versus Independent 6.2% in 2018, new margin not calculated.

      Mildura – Independent Margin verses National 0.3%, gains 2,252 electors from Ripon, new margin not calculated

      Morwell – Unchanged, Independent margin versus Labor 1.8%.

      Pascoe Vale – Labor margin 8.6% versus Independent, major changes to boundaries make new margin impossible to calculate.

      Prahran – Green margin versus Liberal 7.5% in 2018. Greens won from third place on Labor preferences. Hard to work out a new margin. On first preferences, Liberal vote slips from first on 34.5% to second on 29.5%. Labor’s vote rises from 28.9% to 33.3% and the Green vote slips from 28.1% to 27.9%.

      Shepparton – Unchanged, Independent margin v Liberal 5.3%.

      Werribee – Labor margin versus Independent nudges up from 8.8% to 9.2%.

15 thoughts on “Draft Victorian State Electoral Boundaries Released”

  1. In the end, it seems the redistribution wasn’t as pro-Labor as it could have been. In the circumstances, I think the Liberals would be reasonably happy with this.

  2. How would the new boundaries for Footscray effect the 2CP margin? From a quick look at the booth results in 2018 it looks like it would be a ALP/GRN 2CP seat.

    COMMENT: The Greens lift by 4% on first preferences to reach second place on 20.5% but Labor still has 54.7% of the first preference vote.

  3. Hi Antony. Great work on this. Any idea on how the Greens primary vote would be looking in re-drawn Footscray? It looks to have not only lost Sunshine, but nibbled at some of their more favourable areas from Williamstown

    COMMENT: First preferences on the new boundaries would be Labor 54.7%, Greens 20.5% and Liberal 17.1%. The 2018 figures were Labor 57.1%, Liberal 18.5% and Green 16.7%.

  4. Hi Antony – not sure whether your calculations will allow a reliable read on Prahran. My first impression is that the changes make it more of a Greens vs Labor seat than a Greens OR Labor vs Libs seat, and that it would *probably* be stronger for the Greens than Labor. Does that match your view?

    COMMENT: The Greens are still third on first preferences, but Labor and Liberal have swapped position and Labor has the highest first preference. I think it is one of those seats where redistribution calculations don’t help you try and understand the numbers.

    1. I think the order of 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in Prahran will be unknown until the night as all 3 parties’ primary vote is likely to be very close now.

      Factors such as 2018 being a high watermark for Labor, possible loss of ALP support reflected in current polling, and the fact that St Kilda voters in former Albert Park booths previously having an incumbent Labor MP will now have an incumbent Greens MP so those booths may break more similarly to the St Kilda booths that were already in Prahran which were better for the Greens, mean a further 2-3% swing from ALP to Greens could be a very likely outcome.

      That would effectively place all 3 parties around the 30-31% range meaning any combination of a 2PP race could be equally possible – ALP v LIB, GRN v LIB or ALP v GRN. It’ll be a fascinating 3PP race to watch.

      The only thing that is made more certain on these boundaries, is that the Liberals have next to no chance of winning the 2PP vote (if they make it that far), they would almost certainly lose by double-digits or at least close to it. So I can’t see them throwing as many resources into this seat on these boundaries, which could also reduce their primary vote enough for an ALP v GRN race, a scenario I imagine would have to favour Labor as it does in Richmond.

  5. Tom the first and best

    I presume the Greens make a significant gain in Pascoe Vale, given the loss of low Green vote areas in the north and gain of comparatively high Green vote parts of Coburg, Pascoe Vale South and Brunswick West, although with it remaining a safe ALP seat. The Ind versus ALP contest last time making this harder to calculate.

    COMMENT: The Green vote rises from about 12% to 20%.

    1. Tom the first and best

      However, 2018 was almost certainly a higher water mark election for the Victorian ALP, so it is unlikely to fall to the ALP next time or the time after, due to electoral gravity. Then it will be time for the 2028 redistribution and a likely similar move by Polwarth or its replacement, as it becomes a more Geelong peri-urban and even suburban seat and looses more of Corangamite shire, likely further eroding the Liberals.

  6. The Prahran distribution to the 3CP Vote count, in make-up report, requires correction I think.

    COMMENT: It’s not a 3CP. It’s just an accumulation of 2CP totals from three electorates, Labor v Liberal from Albert Park and Caufield, and Liberal versus Green from Prahran.

  7. Polwarth now has considerable sea change areas in possible thar the alp position may improve even if there is a swing back to the liberals

  8. Hi Antony – Great coverage of the redistribution. I think all single member electorate voting systems are a gerrymander with some being more gerrymandered than others.Maybe we don’t get the politicians we deserve because the composition of the lower house does not accurately reflect overall voting intentions where one vote actually has one equal value. If proportional representation was used to elect 88 members from a statewide voting district the composition of the lower house would more accurately represent how voters voted. Libs 30.43% elects at least 27 members, Nationals 4.77% elects at least 4 members, Animal justice 1.82% elects at least 1 member, Greens 10.71% elects at least 9 members ALP 42.86% elects at least 38 members with 9 seats in doubt. On the Victorian 2018 election vote the ALP would need to form a coalition to form government as they did not gain 50% or more of the statewide primary vote.Do you think Proportional Representation should be used to elect members to the lower houses of State and Federal parliaments? Genuine coalition governments would also make the Executive more accountable.

    COMMENT: If 88 members were elected state-wide, then preferences and probably choice of candidates would disappear from the system. WA is wrestling with this problem in trying to reform its upper house.

  9. Looks like you’re saying Richmond goes from ALP 31.7% to ALP 31.3% with a 0.4 swing to LIB. And in your report you show a 2 party preferred, LAB against the L/NP.
    But there wasn’t a liberal candidate at the last election. Not sure it makes sense?

    COMMENT: If you know anything about Richmond you will know the two-party preferred figure for Richmond is irrelevant. Richmond is a seat where Labor competes with the Greens so the relevant number to look at is in the two-candidate preferred tables at the bottom of the post.

    In 2018 there was a Liberal party member who ran as an Independent. I have calculated a 2PP value for Richmond in 2018 by throwing Green preferences to create a Labor v Ind/Lib preference count. The 2PP is completely meaningless but is calculated as a bookkeeping entry so that every electorate has a 2PP value that can be used as input to the various software systems I supervise.

  10. Antony
    Is Mulgrave erroneously listed in dot point nine?

    COMMENT: No. Along with Narre Warren South it is one of the two seats substantially strengthened for Labor.

Leave a Reply