I have double checked all my calculations and this post has been re-written to include an electoral pendulum for the draft boundaries as well as an updated table of margin changes.
UPDATE: I’ve published a report on the make-up of all electorates. You can find it at this link.
You can find maps of all new districts, details of changes, and the Commissioner’s reasoning for the changes on the Electoral Boundaries Commission website.
In broad summary, the major changes produced by the redistribution are –
- The Electoral Boundaries Commission listed 10 seats as abolished and 10 created, but some of these are merely name changes to represent shifts in boundaries.
- In net terms, the redistribution has abolished two seats in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs and created a seat each in Melbourne’s outer west and outer north-west. One middle-distance south-east Melbourne seat has been abolished and replaced by a new seat on Melbourne’s south-east fringe.
- Boundary changes are extensive in the eastern suburbs, but the impact can be summarised as follows. Burwood (ALP 3.3%) has been replaced by Ashwood (ALP 2.1%) and Forest Hill (LIB 1.2%) replaced by Glen Waverley (LIB 0.8%). Ferntree Gully (LIB 1.6%) and Mount Waverley (ALP 1.8%) have been abolished. Bayswater flips from being a Labor seat (ALP 0.4%) to a notional Liberal seat (LIB 0.9%).
- South-eastern Keysborough (ALP 14.9%) has been abolished and the new seat of Pakenham (ALP 3.0%) created on Melbourne’s south-east fringe. In associated changes to create Pakenham, Gembrook (LIB 0.8%) is replaced by Berwick (LIB 1.0%), Bass flips from (ALP 2.4%) to (LIB 2.4%), and Hastings goes the opposite way, switching from (LIB 1.1%) to (ALP 0.4%).
- Prahran (GRN 7.5% v LIB) has become a Labor seat based on the new boundaries, though this in no way suggests the Greens won’t win the contest in 2022. The change in first preferences on the new boundaries sees the Liberal vote slip from first place on 34.5% to second on 29.5%, Labor rises from 28.9% to 33.3%, while the Greens stay in third place with the party’s vote down slightly from 28.1% to 27.9%. This translates into a 5% two-party shift from Liberal to Labor and makes it harder for the Greens to win from third place on Labor preferences as they have at the last two elections. But again, this doesn’t mean the Greens can’t or won’t win on the new boundaries in 2022.
- West of the Yarra, Altona (ALP 14.6%) is replaced by Point Cook (ALP 12.4%) and there is a new seat called Laverton (ALP 24.0%).
- In Melbourne’s north-west, well over quota Yuroke (ALP 20.3%) has been split into two news seats, Greenvale (ALP 22.3%) and Kalkallo (ALP 20.4%). Further east, Mill Park (ALP 24.0%) has been replaced by Morang (ALP 25.2%).
- In western Victoria, Wendouree (ALP 10.3%) is replaced by Eureka (ALP 13.4%), the changes involved also switching Ripon (LIB 0.02%) to (ALP 2.7%). The Labor margin for Buninyong slips from 12.2% to 7.3%.
- Seats weakened for Labor include Albert Park (13.1% to 9.2%) and Buninyong (12.2% to 7.3%). Strengthened are Narre Warren South (6.9% to 10.7%) and the Premier’s seat of Mulgrave (12.7% to 16.4%).
- The Liberal margin in Polwarth slips from 5.4% to 2.3% as the seat moves deeper into the Surf Coast.
- The Green margin in Brunswick increases from 0.6% to 2.3%.
- Labor won 55 seats at the 2018 election. They lose Keysborough and Mount Waverley (abolished) and Bass and Bayswater (become notional Liberal). They gain Hastings, Prahran and Ripon on the new boundaries, and the new seats of Greenvale and Kalkallo (in place of Yuroke), Laverton and Pakenham. Labor now has a notional 57 seats.
- The Liberal Party have slipped from 21 to 20 seats. The party has lost Ferntree Gully (abolished), Hastings and Ripon are notional losses to Labor, but notional gains are Bass and Bayswater.
- The Greens notionally lose Prahran.
- There is no significant change in the swing required for a change of government.
Draft Electoral Pendulum
| Labor (57 seats) | Liberal/National (20/6) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | Electorate | Margin | Electorate |
| ALP 0.4 | Hastings (LIB MP) | LIB 0.1 | Caulfield |
| ALP 0.4 | Hawthorn | LIB 0.4 | Eildon |
| ALP 0.6 | Nepean | LIB 0.4 | Sandringham |
| ALP 2.1 | Ashwood | LIB 0.6 | Brighton |
| ALP 2.7 | Ripon (LIB MP) | LIB 0.6 | Croydon |
| ALP 2.9 | Box Hill | LIB 0.7 | Glen Waverley |
| ALP 3.0 | Pakenham | LIB 1.0 | Berwick |
| ALP 3.5 | Ringwood | LIB 1.1 | Bayswater (ALP MP) |
| ALP 3.9 | South Barwon | LIB 1.9 | Evelyn |
| ALP 5.6 | Melton | LIB 2.3 | Polwarth |
| ALP 5.9 | Richmond (v GRN) | LIB 2.4 | Bass (ALP MP) |
| ALP 7.3 | Buninyong | LIB 3.3 | South-West Coast |
| ALP 8.4 | Monbulk | LIB 4.2 | Warrandyte |
| ALP 9.0 | Cranbourne | LIB 4.6 | Kew |
| ALP 9.2 | Albert Park | LIB 4.9 | Rowville |
| ALP 10.0 | Eltham | LIB 5.0 | Mornington |
| ALP 10.2 | Frankston | LIB 5.4 | Bulleen |
| ALP 10.3 | Geelong | LIB 6.2 | Malvern |
| ALP 10.5 | Narre Warren North | LIB 6.6 | Narracan |
| ALP 10.7 | Narre Warren South | LIB 9.4 | Benambra |
| ALP 11.4 | Bellarine | NAT 12.0 | Ovens Valley |
| ALP 11.5 | Bentleigh | NAT 13.7 | Gippsland South |
| ALP 12.0 | Carrum | NAT 15.3 | Euroa |
| ALP 12.1 | Bendigo East | NAT 17.6 | Gippsland East |
| ALP 12.4 | Ivanhoe | NAT 21.6 | Lowan |
| ALP 12.4 | Point Cook | NAT 24.0 | Murray Plains |
| ALP 12.5 | Niddrie | ||
| ALP 12.8 | Prahran (GRN MP) | Independent (3) / Green (2) | |
| ALP 13.2 | Macedon | IND 0.3 | Mildura (v NAT) |
| ALP 13.4 | Eureka | GRN 1.6 | Melbourne (v ALP) |
| ALP 13.4 | Mordialloc | IND 1.8 | Morwell (v ALP) |
| ALP 13.6 | Werribee (9.2 v IND) | GRN 2.1 | Brunswick (v ALP) |
| ALP 14.6 | Sunbury | IND 5.3 | Shepparton (v LIB) |
| ALP 15.0 | Clarinda | ||
| ALP 15.8 | Essendon | ||
| ALP 16.1 | Oakleigh | ||
| ALP 16.4 | Mulgrave | ||
| ALP 16.4 | Yan Yean | ||
| ALP 17.7 | Sydenham | ||
| ALP 17.7 | Tarneit | ||
| ALP 18.1 | Bundoora | ||
| ALP 18.6 | Bendigo West | ||
| ALP 18.8 | St Albans | ||
| ALP 19.0 | Williamstown | ||
| ALP 19.1 | Lara | ||
| ALP 20.4 | Kalkallo | ||
| ALP 20.7 | Preston (v GRN) | ||
| ALP 22.1 | Pascoe Vale | ||
| ALP 22.3 | Greenvale | ||
| ALP 23.4 | Dandenong | ||
| ALP 24.0 | Laverton | ||
| ALP 24.5 | Kororoit | ||
| ALP 25.2 | Broadmeadows | ||
| ALP 25.2 | Morang | ||
| ALP 27.4 | Thomastown | ||
| ALP 28.7 | Footscray | ||
| ALP 33.2 | Northcote | ||
Old and Estimated New Margins for all Districts
Note – all margins in this table are estimated two party preferred margins. Seats actually held by Greens and Independents are indicated. Estimated two-candidate preferred margins for selected seats are shown below the table.
| Division | Old Margin | New Margin | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Park | ALP 13.1% | ALP 9.2% | 3.9 to LIB |
| Ashwood (ex-Burwood) | ALP 3.3% | ALP 2.1% | 1.2 to LIB |
| Bass | ALP 2.4% | LIB 2.4% | 4.8 to LIB |
| Bayswater | ALP 0.4% | LIB 1.1% | 1.5 to LIB |
| Bellarine | ALP 11.5% | ALP 11.4% | 0.1 to LIB |
| Benambra | LIB 8.9% | LIB 9.4% | 0.5 to LIB |
| Bendigo East | ALP 12.1% | ALP 12.1% | no change |
| Bendigo West | ALP 18.6% | ALP 18.6% | no change |
| Bentleigh | ALP 11.9% | ALP 11.5% | 0.4 to LIB |
| Berwick (ex-Gembrook) | LIB 0.8% | LIB 1.0% | 0.2 to LIB |
| Box Hill | ALP 2.1% | ALP 2.9% | 0.8 to ALP |
| Brighton | LIB 1.1% | LIB 0.6% | 0.5 to ALP |
| Broadmeadows | ALP 30.3% | ALP 25.2% | 5.1 to LIB |
| Brunswick (GRN held) | ALP 34.4% | ALP 34.6% | 0.2 to ALP |
| Bulleen | LIB 5.8% | LIB 5.4% | 0.4 to ALP |
| Bundoora | ALP 17.4% | ALP 18.1% | 0.7 to ALP |
| Buninyong | ALP 12.2% | ALP 7.3% | 4.9 to LIB |
| Carrum | ALP 11.9% | ALP 12.0% | 0.1 to ALP |
| Caulfield | LIB 0.3% | LIB 0.1% | 0.2 to ALP |
| Clarinda | ALP 17.4% | ALP 15.0% | 2.4 to LIB |
| Cranbourne | ALP 11.0% | ALP 9.0% | 2.0 to LIB |
| Croydon | LIB 2.1% | LIB 0.6% | 1.5 to ALP |
| Dandenong | ALP 23.9% | ALP 23.4% | 0.5 to LIB |
| Eildon | LIB 2.4% | LIB 0.4% | 2.0 to ALP |
| Eltham | ALP 9.1% | ALP 10.0% | 0.9 to ALP |
| Essendon | ALP 15.9% | ALP 15.8% | 0.1 to LIB |
| Eureka (ex-Wendouree) | ALP 10.3% | ALP 13.4% | 3.1 to ALP |
| Euroa | NAT 15.4% | NAT 15.3% | 0.1 to ALP |
| Evelyn | LIB 2.6% | LIB 1.9% | 0.7 to ALP |
| Ferntree Gully (abolished) | LIB 1.6% | .. | .. |
| Footscray | ALP 28.1% | ALP 28.7% | 0.6 to ALP |
| Frankston | ALP 9.7% | ALP 10.2% | 0.5 to ALP |
| Geelong | ALP 10.1% | ALP 10.3% | 0.2 to ALP |
| Gippsland East | NAT 17.6% | NAT 17.6% | no change |
| Gippsland South | NAT 15.3% | NAT 13.7% | 1.6 to ALP |
| Glen Waverley (ex-Forest Hill) | LIB 1.2% | LIB 0.7% | 0.5 to ALP |
| Greenvale (new seat) | .. | ALP 22.3% | .. |
| Hastings | LIB 1.1% | ALP 0.4% | 1.5 to ALP |
| Hawthorn | ALP 0.4% | ALP 0.4% | no change |
| Ivanhoe | ALP 12.4% | ALP 12.4% | no change |
| Kalkallo (new seat) | .. | ALP 20.4% | .. |
| Kew | LIB 4.8% | LIB 4.6% | 0.2 to ALP |
| Keysborough (abolished) | ALP 14.9% | .. | .. |
| Kororoit | ALP 25.6% | ALP 24.5% | 1.1 to LIB |
| Lara | ALP 19.1% | ALP 19.1% | no change |
| Laverton (new seat) | .. | ALP 24.0% | .. |
| Lowan | NAT 23.5% | NAT 21.6% | 1.9 to ALP |
| Macedon | ALP 13.2% | ALP 13.2% | no change |
| Malvern | LIB 6.1% | LIB 6.2% | 0.1 to LIB |
| Melbourne (GRN held) | ALP 25.3% | ALP 25.0% | 0.3 to LIB |
| Melton | ALP 4.3% | ALP 5.6% | 1.3 to ALP |
| Mildura (IND held) | NAT 5.6% | NAT 6.2% | 0.6 to NAT |
| Monbulk | ALP 8.6% | ALP 8.4% | 0.2 to LIB |
| Morang (ex-Mill Park) | ALP 24.9% | ALP 25.2% | 0.3 to ALP |
| Mordialloc | ALP 12.9% | ALP 13.4% | 0.5 to ALP |
| Mornington | LIB 5.0% | LIB 5.0% | no change |
| Morwell (IND held) | ALP 2.4% | ALP 2.4% | no change |
| Mount Waverley (abolished) | ALP 1.8% | .. | .. |
| Mulgrave | ALP 12.7% | ALP 16.4% | 3.7 to ALP |
| Murray Plains | NAT 24.0% | NAT 24.0% | no change |
| Narracan | LIB 7.3% | LIB 6.6% | 0.7 to ALP |
| Narre Warren North | ALP 9.8% | ALP 10.5% | 0.7 to ALP |
| Narre Warren South | ALP 6.9% | ALP 10.7% | 3.8 to ALP |
| Nepean | ALP 0.9% | ALP 0.6% | 0.3 to LIB |
| Niddrie | ALP 12.6% | ALP 12.5% | 0.1 to LIB |
| Northcote | ALP 33.2% | ALP 33.2% | no change |
| Oakleigh | ALP 15.8% | ALP 16.1% | 0.3 to ALP |
| Ovens Valley | NAT 12.6% | NAT 12.0% | 0.6 to ALP |
| Pakenham (new seat) | .. | ALP 3.0% | .. |
| Pascoe Vale | ALP 18.3% | ALP 22.1% | 3.8 to ALP |
| Point Cook (ex-Altona) | ALP 14.6% | ALP 12.4% | 2.2 to LIB |
| Polwarth | LIB 5.4% | LIB 2.3% | 3.1 to ALP |
| Prahran (GRN held) | ALP 7.6% | ALP 12.8% | 5.2 to ALP |
| Preston | ALP 28.5% | ALP 28.5% | no change |
| Richmond | ALP 31.7% | ALP 31.3% | 0.4 to LIB |
| Ringwood | ALP 2.8% | ALP 3.5% | 0.7 to ALP |
| Ripon | LIB 0.0% | ALP 2.7% | 2.7 to ALP |
| Rowville | LIB 5.7% | LIB 4.9% | 0.8 to ALP |
| Sandringham | LIB 0.6% | LIB 0.4% | 0.2 to ALP |
| Shepparton (IND held) | LIB 11.7% | LIB 11.7% | no change |
| South Barwon | ALP 4.6% | ALP 3.9% | 0.7 to LIB |
| South-West Coast | LIB 2.3% | LIB 3.3% | 1.0 to LIB |
| St Albans | ALP 21.5% | ALP 18.8% | 2.7 to LIB |
| Sunbury | ALP 14.3% | ALP 14.6% | 0.3 to ALP |
| Sydenham | ALP 17.9% | ALP 17.7% | 0.2 to LIB |
| Tarneit | ALP 18.0% | ALP 17.7% | 0.3 to LIB |
| Thomastown | ALP 27.2% | ALP 27.4% | 0.2 to ALP |
| Warrandyte | LIB 3.9% | LIB 4.2% | 0.3 to LIB |
| Werribee | ALP 12.6% | ALP 13.6% | 1.0 to ALP |
| Williamstown | ALP 22.1% | ALP 19.0% | 3.1 to LIB |
| Yan Yean | ALP 17.0% | ALP 16.4% | 0.6 to LIB |
| Yuroke (abolished) | ALP 20.3% | .. | .. |
Estimated Labor/Green Margins
| Division | Old Margin | New Margin | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brunswick (ALP v GRN) | GRN 0.6% | GRN 2.3% | 1.7 to GRN |
| Melbourne (ALP v GRN) | GRN 1.3% | GRN 1.6% | 0.3 to GRN |
| Northcote (ALP v GRN) | ALP 1.7% | ALP 1.7% | no change |
| Preston (ALP v GRN) | ALP 20.7% | ALP 20.7% | no change |
| Richmond (ALP v GRN) | ALP 5.5% | ALP 5.9% | 0.4 to ALP |
Further notes on Non-2PP Contests
Benambra – Liberal margin versus Independent nudges upwards from 2.4% to 2.6%.
Geelong – Labor margin versus Independent 6.2% in 2018, new margin not calculated.
Mildura – Independent Margin verses National 0.3%, gains 2,252 electors from Ripon, new margin not calculated
Morwell – Unchanged, Independent margin versus Labor 1.8%.
Pascoe Vale – Labor margin 8.6% versus Independent, major changes to boundaries make new margin impossible to calculate.
Prahran – Green margin versus Liberal 7.5% in 2018. Greens won from third place on Labor preferences. Hard to work out a new margin. On first preferences, Liberal vote slips from first on 34.5% to second on 29.5%. Labor’s vote rises from 28.9% to 33.3% and the Green vote slips from 28.1% to 27.9%.
Shepparton – Unchanged, Independent margin v Liberal 5.3%.
Werribee – Labor margin versus Independent nudges up from 8.8% to 9.2%.
In the end, it seems the redistribution wasn’t as pro-Labor as it could have been. In the circumstances, I think the Liberals would be reasonably happy with this.
How would the new boundaries for Footscray effect the 2CP margin? From a quick look at the booth results in 2018 it looks like it would be a ALP/GRN 2CP seat.
COMMENT: The Greens lift by 4% on first preferences to reach second place on 20.5% but Labor still has 54.7% of the first preference vote.
Hi Antony. Great work on this. Any idea on how the Greens primary vote would be looking in re-drawn Footscray? It looks to have not only lost Sunshine, but nibbled at some of their more favourable areas from Williamstown
COMMENT: First preferences on the new boundaries would be Labor 54.7%, Greens 20.5% and Liberal 17.1%. The 2018 figures were Labor 57.1%, Liberal 18.5% and Green 16.7%.
Hi Antony – not sure whether your calculations will allow a reliable read on Prahran. My first impression is that the changes make it more of a Greens vs Labor seat than a Greens OR Labor vs Libs seat, and that it would *probably* be stronger for the Greens than Labor. Does that match your view?
COMMENT: The Greens are still third on first preferences, but Labor and Liberal have swapped position and Labor has the highest first preference. I think it is one of those seats where redistribution calculations don’t help you try and understand the numbers.
I think the order of 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in Prahran will be unknown until the night as all 3 parties’ primary vote is likely to be very close now.
Factors such as 2018 being a high watermark for Labor, possible loss of ALP support reflected in current polling, and the fact that St Kilda voters in former Albert Park booths previously having an incumbent Labor MP will now have an incumbent Greens MP so those booths may break more similarly to the St Kilda booths that were already in Prahran which were better for the Greens, mean a further 2-3% swing from ALP to Greens could be a very likely outcome.
That would effectively place all 3 parties around the 30-31% range meaning any combination of a 2PP race could be equally possible – ALP v LIB, GRN v LIB or ALP v GRN. It’ll be a fascinating 3PP race to watch.
The only thing that is made more certain on these boundaries, is that the Liberals have next to no chance of winning the 2PP vote (if they make it that far), they would almost certainly lose by double-digits or at least close to it. So I can’t see them throwing as many resources into this seat on these boundaries, which could also reduce their primary vote enough for an ALP v GRN race, a scenario I imagine would have to favour Labor as it does in Richmond.
I presume the Greens make a significant gain in Pascoe Vale, given the loss of low Green vote areas in the north and gain of comparatively high Green vote parts of Coburg, Pascoe Vale South and Brunswick West, although with it remaining a safe ALP seat. The Ind versus ALP contest last time making this harder to calculate.
COMMENT: The Green vote rises from about 12% to 20%.
Polwarth also weakened for the Liberals
However, 2018 was almost certainly a higher water mark election for the Victorian ALP, so it is unlikely to fall to the ALP next time or the time after, due to electoral gravity. Then it will be time for the 2028 redistribution and a likely similar move by Polwarth or its replacement, as it becomes a more Geelong peri-urban and even suburban seat and looses more of Corangamite shire, likely further eroding the Liberals.
This is terrific, thanks Antony. Any chance of running these 2PP on 2014 numbers?
COMMENT: No.
The Prahran distribution to the 3CP Vote count, in make-up report, requires correction I think.
COMMENT: It’s not a 3CP. It’s just an accumulation of 2CP totals from three electorates, Labor v Liberal from Albert Park and Caufield, and Liberal versus Green from Prahran.
OK thanks, first time I’ve seen this format
Polwarth now has considerable sea change areas in possible thar the alp position may improve even if there is a swing back to the liberals
Hi Antony – Great coverage of the redistribution. I think all single member electorate voting systems are a gerrymander with some being more gerrymandered than others.Maybe we don’t get the politicians we deserve because the composition of the lower house does not accurately reflect overall voting intentions where one vote actually has one equal value. If proportional representation was used to elect 88 members from a statewide voting district the composition of the lower house would more accurately represent how voters voted. Libs 30.43% elects at least 27 members, Nationals 4.77% elects at least 4 members, Animal justice 1.82% elects at least 1 member, Greens 10.71% elects at least 9 members ALP 42.86% elects at least 38 members with 9 seats in doubt. On the Victorian 2018 election vote the ALP would need to form a coalition to form government as they did not gain 50% or more of the statewide primary vote.Do you think Proportional Representation should be used to elect members to the lower houses of State and Federal parliaments? Genuine coalition governments would also make the Executive more accountable.
COMMENT: If 88 members were elected state-wide, then preferences and probably choice of candidates would disappear from the system. WA is wrestling with this problem in trying to reform its upper house.
Looks like you’re saying Richmond goes from ALP 31.7% to ALP 31.3% with a 0.4 swing to LIB. And in your report you show a 2 party preferred, LAB against the L/NP.
But there wasn’t a liberal candidate at the last election. Not sure it makes sense?
COMMENT: If you know anything about Richmond you will know the two-party preferred figure for Richmond is irrelevant. Richmond is a seat where Labor competes with the Greens so the relevant number to look at is in the two-candidate preferred tables at the bottom of the post.
In 2018 there was a Liberal party member who ran as an Independent. I have calculated a 2PP value for Richmond in 2018 by throwing Green preferences to create a Labor v Ind/Lib preference count. The 2PP is completely meaningless but is calculated as a bookkeeping entry so that every electorate has a 2PP value that can be used as input to the various software systems I supervise.
Antony
Is Mulgrave erroneously listed in dot point nine?
COMMENT: No. Along with Narre Warren South it is one of the two seats substantially strengthened for Labor.