Braddon 2021 – Updates on the Distribution of Preferences

Candidates Elected in Order

  1. Liberal – Jeremy Rockliff (Re-elected)
  2. Labor – Anita Dow (Re-elected)
  3. Labor – Shane Broad (Re-elected)
  4. Liberal – Roger Jaensch (Re-elected)
  5. Liberal – Adam Brooks (Elected)

Count Completed

Change in Elected Members – On the Liberal ticket, Adam Brooks will be elected defeating Felix Ellis. Remarkably for a man who looked defeated on election night, Roger Jaensch was elected ahead of Adam Brooks.

Update 15 May – so after all that effort, Adam Brooks has announced he will not take his seat. He has been charged with several offences by Queensland Police that can be read about on news sites. The consequences for the new Parliament is that he will resign and create a vacancy. In Tasmania vacancies are filled by a countback of the votes that elected the departing member. That countback will elect another Liberal from the party ticket. The most likely candidate to win the count is Felix Ellis, but we will see once the count is undertaken.

Links to Other Electorates: Bass | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

13 May Updates

3:30pm – final count and while the expected defeat of Felix Ellis occurred, there were still surprises in the flow of preferences. These voters who had used the ordering Garland then Dow then Broad on their ballot paper, then had least preferences for Adam Brooks. Jaensch passed Brooks to be elected fourth, quite a recovery for a candidate who on election night was fourth on the Liberal ticket. Having topped the ticket in the past, Adam Brooks has been elected fifth in 2021.

Party/Group Totals at Count 34 – surplus of Shane Broad (Labor)

Party/Group Party Change Votes Quotas
Liberal Total LIB +579 43,964 3.7702
Labor Total ALP -733 23,322 2.0000

Candidate Totals at Count 34 – surplus of Shane Broad (Labor)

Candidate (Order) Party Change Votes Quotas
Jeremy Rockliff (1 Elected) LIB 0 11,661 1.0000
Anita Dow (2 Elected ALP 0 11,661 1.0000
Shane Broad (3 Elected) ALP -733 11,661 1.0000
Roger Jaensch (4 Elected) LIB +278 10,897 0.9345
Adam Brooks (5 Elected) LIB +97 10,859 0.9312
Felix Ellis LIB +204 10,547 0.9045
Exhausted +154 2,675 0.2294

2:15pm – and the count goes on! Dow’s surplus flowed overwhelmingly to her party colleague Shane Broad putting him over a quota, so the next count will be the exclusion of his surplus. Felix Ellis is still behind on the Liberal ticket so still almost certain to lose.

Remember, the votes that elected Dow had all been with Craig Garland. So all of Dow’s surplus was votes that had a preference ordering of Craig Garland then Anita Dow. Broad’s surplus will be all votes that had the sequence Garland, Dow and Broad. The only way that Ellis can avoid defeat is if there are a lot of votes in Broad’s surplus that go Garland, Dow, Broad then Ellis. That seems extremely unlikely in the word of Hare-Clark ballot papers and Robson Rotation.

Just to clarify, I’m not suggesting the ballot papers would be 1 Garland, 2 Dow, 3 Broad and 4 Ellis. They could be 3,5,7,9 or any other possible numbering as long the preference numbers were in the same ordered sequence.

1:20pm – the exclusion of Craig Garland puts Labor’s Anita Dow over quota, her surplus like to then elect her colleague Shane Broad. That leaves Felix Ellis in last place with Adam Brookes and Roger Jaensch rounding out Liberal representation. Unless there is an extra-ordinary number of people who preferenced Garland, Dow, Broad and Ellis in that order.

12:15pm – Justine Keay’s preferences put both Shane Broad and Anita Dow ahead of all three remaining Liberal candidates but left both more than a thousand votes of a quota. On the Liberal ticket, Roger Jaensch maintains a narrow lead of his colleague Felix Ellis.

Next out is Independent Craig Garland. His preference may elect members to some of the seats yet to be filled. His exclusion should also determine which of Roger Jaensch and Felix Ellis miss out on election. The chances of four Liberals is still mathematically possible but extremely unlikely.

9:30am – counting resumes this morning and this page will be updated through the day. The totals by party and by candidate at the end of yesterday’s counting are shown in the count summary table.

Today’s counting will begin by distributing the preferences of Labor’s Justine Keay which should remove any final doubts over the election of the two sitting Labor MHAs, Shane Broad and Anita Dow. After that, ungrouped Independent Craig Garland will be excluded. After Garland, whoever is at that stage the lowest polling Liberal candidate will be excluded and elect the other two Liberal candidates.

12 May Updates

6:00pm – exclusion of the 5th placed Liberal Lara Hendriks puts Roger Jaensch back in front of Felix Ellis and also ensures that Adam Brooks will return to the Assembly, elected to the second Liberal seat. Three remaining Liberal candidates have more than 0.8 of a quota, a split that allowed the Liberal Party to win four seats in 2014. However, the Labor vote is stronger than in 2014 so a 3 Liberal 2 Labor finish is still the most likely.

Next out is Labor candidate Justine Keay. Labor will be hoping her 0.5355 quota of votes splits evenly between the remaining Labor candidates, Shane Broad and Anita Dow. If her votes favour one candidate over the other, there is an outside chance one Labor candidate could finish lower than the three remaining Liberals.

After that, no one has any idea how the preferences of Independent Craig Garland will flow. He has reached 0.5678 quotas thanks to sweeping up lots of preferences.

3:25pm Exclusion of the final Greens candidate Darren Briggs. Independent Craig Garland continues to do spectacularly well on preferences.

1:10pm – distribution of final SFF candidate Brenton Jones gives more preferences to Adam Brooks and Felix Ellis on the Liberal Ticket. Ellis is now 354 ahead of Jaensch in the race for the third Liberal seat.

Noon – Exclusion of the 6th placed Liberal Stacey Sheehan put Felix Ellis back in front of Roger Jaensch. Her preferences favoured Ellis 600 to 311 for Jaensch.

9:40am – I’ll be maintaining two tables to follow the count for the rest of the day. The first is totals by party, the second shows the totals by candidate. I’ll keep them at the top of the post with the latest commentary with earlier commentary below

11 May updates

7:00pm – final for the night. It still looks like 3 Liberal with Adam Brooks and Roger Jaensch ahead of Felix Ellis in the race for the two extra Liberal seats. Shane Broad and Anita Dow both have over half a quota and are set for re-election. Four Liberals is still possible but unlikely. There will be some big preference distributions tomorrow that will tell us more.

5:20pm – the exclusion of fifth placed Labor candidate Amanda Diprose favours Justine Keay over both Labor sitting members though she will still finish third on the ticket.

4:20pm3:55pm – Lower placed Green candidates being excluded and distributed without any significant impact on the count. Strong possibility no other candidates will reach quota today. I expect both Labor candidates are safe but it is difficult to work out who will win the second and third Liberal seats. Adam Brooks and Roger Jaensch are ahead though Jaensch’s lead over Felix Ellis is just 52 votes. There are around 5,000 votes with Lara Hendriks and Stacey Sheehan. They will determine the order of election but both will have to be excluded before another Liberal reaches quota. It may be that the final four candidates have to wait for the last count to be declared elected.

1:50pm – Rockliff’s preferences raise the outside chance the Liberals could yet win four in Braddon. The Liberals now have three candidates ahead of Labor’s lead candidates and Labor has 1.6 quotas in total. Broad has 0.52 quotas and Dow 0.49. If the preferences from 0.6 quotas with other Labor candidates split evenly, both candidates will be on about 0.8 towards the end of the count and not all three remaining Liberals can be ahead. However, if the Labor preferences split unevenly between the two Labor candidates, there is a chance three Liberals could get ahead of one Labor candidate. Green and Garland preferences may also help Labor’s two candidates stay ahead, but it will be interesting to see how internal Labor preferences flow, especially from Justine Keay. Four Liberals doesn’t look likely but Rockliff’s preferences have made it possible.

1:30pm – a big change in the count. Rockliff’s surplus heavily favoured Roger Jaensch and he has passed Felix Ellis. Adam Brooks is now a clear second place and heading for return to the House of Assembly. Brooks is on 0.72 quotas, Jaensch 0.6316, Ellis 0.6275 with 0.4294 with other Liberal candidates. The battle is between Jaensch and Ellis for the third Liberal seat.

12:50pm – Final first preference total published. Distribution underway.

Noon – final first preference figures added so the distribution of preferences will be underway.

10:25am – the count will start with the formal declaration of Jeremy Rockliff as elected with 1.65 quotas worth of votes. His large surplus will then be distributed. His ballot papers would have been pre-sorted for distribution before today. Rockliff’s surplus is unlikely to elect a second Liberal but will clarify which two of the three Liberals in contention are most likely to be elected.

After that the count will start excluding the lowest polling candidates, beginning with Matthew Morgan (Ungrouped), Liz Hamer (Ungrouped) and then the lowest polling Green candidates.

Thoughts in advance of the distribution

Prospects: Jeremy Rockliff’s surplus will be distributed as the first step of the count. The Liberals will win three seats, but which two of Felix Ellis, Adam Brooks and Roger Jaensch are elected will not become clear until Rockliff’s surplus has been distributed. Jaensch is likely to be the candidate who misses out, set to lose his seat to the returning Adam Brooks. Labor’s two sitting MHAs, Shane Broad and Anita Dow, should be re-elected later in the count.