Bass 2021 – Updates on the Distribution of Preferences

Candidates Elected in Order

  1. Liberal – Peter Gutwein (Re-elected)
  2. Liberal – Sarah Courtney (Re-elected)
  3. Liberal – Michael Ferguson (Re-elected)
  4. Labor – Michelle O’Byrne (Re-elected)
  5. Labor – Janie Finlay (Elected)

Count completed

Change in Elected Members – On the Labor ticket, Janie Finlay has defeated Jennifer Houston.

Links to Other Electorates: Braddon | Clark | Franklin | Lyons

13 May Updates

4:30pm – the final throw of the 156 remaining votes elect Janie Finlay to the final seat with just short of a full quota.

3:45pm – two more partial exclusions of Simon Wood. These are nearly all ballot papers with a first preference for Peter Gutwein. With the only choices left on the ballot paper being a Labor and a Green candidate, over half of these ballot papers are exhausting their preference sequences.

Party/Group Totals at Count 52 – full exclusion of Simon Wood (Liberal)

Party/Group Party Change Votes Quotas
Liberal Total LIB -156 33,678 3.0000
Labor Total ALP +62 22,409 1.9962
Green Total GRN +19 7,684 0.6845

Candidate Totals at Count 52 – full exclusion of Simon Wood (Liberal)

Candidate (Order) Party Change Votes Quotas
Peter Gutwein (1 Elected) LIB 0 11,226 1.0000
Sarah Courtney (2 Elected) LIB 0 11,226 1.0000
Michael Ferguson (3 Elected) LIB 0 11,226 1.0000
Michelle O’Byrne (4 Elected) ALP 0 11,226 1.0000
Janie Finlay (5 Elected) ALP +62 11,183 0.9962
Jack Davenport GRN +19 7,684 0.6845
Simon Wood LIB -156 0 0.0000
Exhausted +75 3,581 0.3190

2:25pm – partial exclusion of Liberal Simon Wood. I presume these are all his pull value preference votes. He will have many ballot paper at reduced transfer value courtesy of Peter Gutwein’s surplus.

1:50pm – O’Byrne’s small surplus distributed, most flowing to Janie Finlay but leaving her short of a quota. So Liberal Simon Wood will be distributed next as the last step of the count.

1:00pm – the rest of Harvey’s votes distributed. These all came from surplus votes for Gutwein, Courtney and Ferguson, so there would potentially have been many more ballot papers than votes that needed to be counted. The next count will be O’Byrne’s surplus which won’t be enough to elect Janie Finlay, so Liberal Simon Wood will be distributed after O’Byrne.

12:30pm – Missed a count while at the optometrist. Labor’s Adrian Hinds was excluded but did not elect either Michelle O’Byrne or Janie Finlay. So all first preferences for Andrew Harvey were distributed which put Michelle O’Byrne over quota. At the end of Count 43, Michelle O’Byrne had been elected to the fourth vacancy and the next count will distribute the rest of Harvey’s votes.

10:25am – Layton-Bennet (Greens) excluded. All remaining Green votes are now with Jack Devenport but he still trails both Labor’s lead candidates Michelle O’Byrne and Janie Finlay. The next candidate to be excluded will be Labor’s Adrian Hinds which might elect Michelle O’Byrne but is more likely to leave both O’Byrne and Finlay short of a quota.

9:30am – results will be updated through the day. The count will begin by distributing the preferences of the second Green candidate Anne Layton-Bennett. Totals by party and candidate are shown in the count summary tables.

12 May Updates

5:25pm – 5th placed Liberal Lara Alexander excluded.

3:15pm – exclusion of sitting Labor MHA Jennifer Houston.

2:30pm – exclusion of the Animal Justice Party.

12:45 – a very small count distributing Michael Ferguson’s quota.

12:35 – balance of Liberal Greg Kieser’s votes distributed.

11:30am – all full value votes for Liberal Greg Kieser are distributed, enough to elect Michael Ferguson to the third seat. Gutwein and Courtney preferences will be distributed in the next count.

11:05am 6th placed Liberal candidate Greg Kieser is currently being excluded which will election Michael Ferguson to the 3rd seat.

9:00am – I’ll be maintaining two tables to follow the count for the rest of the day. The first is totals by party, the second shows the totals by candidate. I’ll keep them at the top of the post with the latest commentary with earlier commentary below

11 May Updates

6:50pm – final update for today. Count 12 distributed the fifth placed Labor candidate Owen Powell. Liberal Michael Ferguson is now only 45 votes short of a quota and certain of election. The Labor total over four candidates is 1.68 quotas, but Michelle O’Byrne has 0.76 quotas and Janie Finlay 0.57. Both lead the Liberal surplus of 0.44 quotas and the total Green vote of 0.57 quotas with three candidates to exclude. The SFF have 0.18 quotas and Animal Justice 0.13, but these votes will not coalesce in a way that will allow any other candidate to pass O’Byrne or Finlay. So the result in Bass is clear cut but counting must continue to completion.

4:55pm – Ungrouped candidate Roy Ramage excluded with minimal impact on the likely result.

4:10pm – Count 3 is over and Sarah Courtney’s small surplus has been distributed with no significant impact on the count.

3:05pm – I was going to plot the quota of O’Byrne and Finlay against the Liberal surplus and Green total, but the leakage of Gutwein’s surplus has cut the Liberal total from 3.60 quotas to 3.42 and both O’Byrne and Finlay now lead any possible contender in the race for the final seats.

2:55pm – the Gutwein distribution of preferences has been published and it elected Sara Courtney to the second seat with Michael Ferguson just short of a quota. There has been quite a leakage out of the Liberal ticket ensuring that Labor’s two lead candidates will be elected.

12:50pm – Final first preference total published. Distribution underway.

10:20am – the first step of the count will be the formal declaration that Peter Gutwein has been elected with 2.89 quotas worth of votes. After the calculation of a transfer value, his ballot papers will be distributed at the reduced transfer value to other candidates remaining in the count. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) pre-sorts the ballot papers for candidates with more than a quota of votes, so this count should be reported relatively quickly and elect one of, or less likely both, Michael Ferguson and Sarah Courtney. That will create at least another surplus to distribute, but as all will be sourced from Gutwein’s surplus, they may also have been pre-sorted by the Commission.

After surpluses are distributed, the count will proceed by exclusion and distribution of preferences from the lowest polling candidate, Roy Ramage (Ungrouped,) followed by the exclusion and distribution of the lowest polling Green candidates.

9:30am – The only doubt about the result in Bass is whether the fourth Liberal candidate or lead Green candidate can win the final seat ahead of the second Labor candidate. I think this is unlikely because once the lower placed Labor candidates are excluded, both Michelle O’Byrne and Janie Finlay should be ahead of the Liberal surplus and total Green vote.

Prospects: The result is straightforward. Liberals Michael Ferguson and Sarah Courtney will be elected on Peter Gutwein’s surplus. Labor’s Michelle O’Byrne will win the fourth seat and the fifth seat should be won by Labor’s Janie Finlay, defeating her Labor colleague and sitting MHA Jennifer Houston.

What I’ll be tracking: The partial quotas for O’Byrne and Finlay against the total Green vote and the surplus beyond three quotas for the Liberal Party.