Antony Green

Antony Green - Election Analyst

How a Hare-Clark Count Works

10am today is the close-off time for receipt of Tasmanian election postal votes. After these votes have been added to the count, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will begin an amalgamation count, where ballot papers by candidate by polling place are amalgamated into bundles of ballot papers by candidate by electorate.

Once amalgamation is complete, the Electoral Commission will begin distributing preferences. Over the next few days I will have a dedicated post for each division where I will summarise the progress of the 2024 count.

To visualise how the distribution of preferences takes place, this post summarises the 2021 count progress for Bass. It explains why vote for parties is much more important under Hare-Clark than it is at Senate elections, where above-the-line party votes control the count. Both Senate and Hare-Clark counts are conducted as contests between candidates, but with Hare-Clark the split of party votes between candidates is much more than at Senate elections.

The chart below shows the party totals at Count 1, the final tally of first preference votes.

Read More »How a Hare-Clark Count Works

Dunstan By-election Updates plus problems with the SA Electoral Act

After looking the clear winner of the Dunstan by-election on Saturday night, Labor has finished with a narrower margin than expected.

Dunstan had been held by former Liberal Premier Steven Marshall since 2010. He squeaked home with a narrow 0.5% margin at the 2022 state election which meant the seat was always going to be a hotly contested by-election on his retirement. (For background on the by-election and the results see my profile on the ABC Elections website. Final figures published.)

On election night the Labor Party finished on 53.8%, boosted to 54.0% on Sunday by check counting. At that point, based on declaration vote trends at the 2022 state election, Labor would have expected to finish with 52.7% once all votes were counted.

In fact the race has been much closer. On Thursday 28 March, Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon is on 50.8% after preferences with a lead over Liberal Anna Finizio of 347 votes. The count is at 80.5% of enrolment with only a handful of outstanding postal votes remaining to be counted. Due to Good Friday, postal vote return closes on Tuesday 2 April to be followed by the formnal distribution of preferences.

Labor will win after a swing of 1.4%, down substantially on the 4.5% swing seen on election night.

The table below shows how the count narrowed with the release of each successive declaration vote count.Read More »Dunstan By-election Updates plus problems with the SA Electoral Act

Tasmanian Election – Post-Election Night Updates

In this post I go through last night’s Tasmanian election result to try and get a better handle on the final outcome. The full picture won’t emerge until after the full distribution of preferences begins on the Tuesday after Easter.

A comment on the overall results. With 83.5% counted (final turn out will be about 90%), the Liberal Party are polling 36.8% of the first preference vote, down 11.9% on 2021. Labor polled 29.2% (+1.0%), Greens 13.4% (+1.1%), the Jacqui Lambie Network 6.7% (up from zero), single Independents 8.2% (+3.0%) and other parties 5.7% (+0.1%).

The seat numbers are –

  • Liberal: have won 13 seats and could win extra seats in Braddon and Franklin to reach 15, three seats short of a majority.
  • Labor: 10 seat with the outside chance of reaching 11th seat
  • Greens: four with a strong chance of five.
  • Jacqui Lambie Network: two and an outside chance of a third
  • Independents: two likely to be elected in Kristie Johnston and David O’Byrne.

It is interesting to compare the election result to 2014 when Will Hodgman led the Liberal Party to a landslide victory. Compared to 2014, Labor’s vote is up 1.9%, the Greens down 0.4%, the Liberal Party down 14.4% and support for others +12.9%.

Support for parties other than Labor, Liberal and Greens reached 20.6%, almost double the previous record in 2021.

Read More »Tasmanian Election – Post-Election Night Updates

Coverage of Tasmanian State Election and Dunstan By-election

This is one of my usual posts on election night designed to deal with the surge of visitors to the site driven by Google searches.

I will not be posting here this evening as I am involved in the ABC’s live coverage of the Tasmanian election. The coverage is being broadcast live across Tasmania from 6pm eastern daylight time on the ABC’s main channel, and across Australia on the ABC News channel. There will also be updates of the important Dunstan by-election in South Australia during the Tasmanian coverage.

The ABC will also be publishing live results at ABC-online. Access the Tasmanian live results site here. You can also find the Dunstan by-election results here.

Inside this post I have information on the early vote at both elections.Read More »Coverage of Tasmanian State Election and Dunstan By-election

Live Coverage of Brisbane City Council, Inala and Ipswich West By-elections

ABC Results site is now live here.

Updated Tuesday 19 March 5pm AEDT

The tables below summarises the result. There are updates on latest figures being logged inside the post.

Results Summary

Inala by-election Labor retain
Ipswich West by-election LNP GAIN
Brisbane Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner re-elected
Brisbane Wards LNP retain majority

Brisbane Council – Wards Won by Party

LNP ALP GRN IND Doubt
Wards won 17 5 2 1 1
Leading 1 .. .. .. ..

Brisbane Wards – Councillors Elected

Ward Margin and Incumbent Result
Bracken Ridge LNP – Sandy Landers Re-elected
Calamvale LNP – Angela Owen Labor GAIN
Central LNP – Vicki Howard Re-elected
Chandler LNP – Ryan Murphy Re-elected
Coorparoo LNP – Fiona Cunningham Re-elected
Deagon ALP – Jared Cassidy Re-elected
Doboy LNP – Lisa Atwood Re-elected
Enoggera LNP – Andrew Wines Re-elected
Forest Lake ALP – Charles Strunk Re-elected
Hamilton LNP – Julia Dixon Re-elected
Holland Park LNP – Krista Adams Re-elected
Jamboree LNP – Sarah Hutton Re-elected
Macgregor LNP – Steven Huang Re-elected
Marchant LNP – Danita Parry Re-elected
McDowall LNP – Tracy Davis Re-elected
Moorooka ALP – Steve Griffiths Re-elected
Morningside ALP – Lucy Collier Re-elected
Northgate LNP – Adam Allan LNP ahead
Paddington LNP – Clare Jenkinson Greens GAIN
Pullenvale LNP – Greg Adermann Re-elected
Runcorn LNP – Kim Marx Re-elected
Tennyson IND – Nicole Jonhston Re-elected
The Gabba GRN – Trina Massey Re-elected
The Gap LNP – Steve Toomey Re-elected
Walter Taylor LNP – Penny Wolff Re-elected
Wynnum-Manly ALP – Sara Whitmee LNP gain


Read More »Live Coverage of Brisbane City Council, Inala and Ipswich West By-elections

Queensland By-elections since 1992

As well as voting in the Queensland local government elections this weekend, voters in the Labor-held seats of Inala and Ipswich West will vote at state by-elections to elect new MPs.

“Informed sources” are making predictions of big swings. There are hints from Labor at possible seat losses, from the LNP about falling short of the required swing. The sort of expectations management now common ahead of important by-elections.

The results of both by-elections, and the Brisbane City Council election, will be watched closely. On Saturday night you can follow my coverage of the elections at the ABC’s Brisbane City Council and By-elections live results site. I’ll also be joining Steve Austin on ABC Brisbane local radio analysing the results.

The election night dissections will be followed by the reports of the auguries on Sunday. What will they be able to divine about the fate of the Labor government and new Premier Steven Miles at the state election set for October?

The Inala by-election (preview here) is to select a replacement for former Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Inala has been Labor’s safest seat for three decades and its margin of 28.2% looks insurmountable.

At greater risk further along the Warrego Highway is Ipswich West (preview here). Former member Jim Madden has been followed by controversy before resigning and the seat’s margin of 14.3% is half that of Inala. It is a seat that both the LNP and One Nation have held in the past.

Looking back at Queensland by-elections since 1992, they provide a mixed bag of results to measure against this weekend’s results. There have been 21 by-elections since 1992, eight resulting in the incumbent party being defeated. Twelve of these by-elections were two-party preferred contests like this weekend’s pair, and six saw incumbents defeated.

In summary –

  • Of the 12 two-party preferred by-elections, the average swing against the government of the day was 6.5%.
  • The seven by-elections while Labor was in government saw an average swing of 5.0% against Labor government.
  • The five by-elections while the LNP was in government produced an average swing of 8.5% against the LNP government.
  • Of the seven by-elections in government held seats, the average swing against the government was 10.1% Five were in Labor seats in Labor governments and an average of 6.9%, the two LNP seats while the LNP governed averaging 18.2%.
  • The Beattie Labor government lost three seats after big swings at by-elections between 2005 and 2006. Labor lost Chatsworth in 2005 after a 13.9% swing, Redcliffe the same day with an 8.4% swing, and Gaven in April 2006 after an 8.3% swing. Despite the losses, Labor re-gained all three seats at the 2006 election.
  • The Newman LNP government lost two seats to huge swings at by-elections in 2014, losing Redcliffe to a 17.2% swing, and Stafford shortly after to an even bigger 19.1% swing. Both results accurately predicted the result of the next state election in January 2015.

Read More »Queensland By-elections since 1992

Queensland State By-elections – Inala and Ipswich West

As well as the Brisbane City Council elections on 16 March, the Queensland Labor Party faces two state by-elections the same day.

The Inala by-election has been brought on by the resignation of former Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Inala is Labor’s safest seat with a massive margin of 28.2% and the party’s primary vote in 2020 was 67%. Inala is so safe that it was one of the seven seats Labor retained at the party’s 2012 landslide defeat. You can read my by-election profile for Inala here.

The Ipswich West by-election has been caused by the resignation of backbencher Jim Madden. The Labor margin is 14.3% and the first preference vote in 2020 50.1%. It was one of the seats lost to the LNP for a single term in 2012 and was also lost to One Nation for a single term in 1998. One Nation finished second in Ipswich West as recently as 2017. You can read my by-election profile for Ipswich West here..

I will be covering both by-elections as part of my Brisbane City Council result coverage on 16 March. The reason for this separate post is to highlight material I’ve been adding to both by-election pages on preferences.Read More »Queensland State By-elections – Inala and Ipswich West

Update on Tasmanian nominations, Dunkley and Dunstan by-elections

It’s been a hectic week preparing for Saturday night’s coverage of the Dunkley by-election, as well as dealing with the close of nominations for the Tasmanian election and the Dunstan by-election in South Australia.

Here’s a pointer to what I’ve been up to.

Dunkley By-election – 2 March

Knowing that Google recommendations send thousands of people to my blog site whenever there is an electoral event, i’m putting a link here to my Dunkley coverage.

I will not be blogging Dunkley results at this site. I will be on the ABC News channel and iView on Saturday night covering the results. There will also be live results on my ABC Dunkley by-election page. This will include polling place results, a map of polling place results, and I also have a Commentary page where I will be doing… Commentary. If the count takes several days to resolve, I will be doing my vote updates and analysis on the Dunkley by-election Commentary page.

I’ve also been keeping up to date with the pre-poll and postal voting rates for Dunkley which you can find in this blog post.Read More »Update on Tasmanian nominations, Dunkley and Dunstan by-elections