Saturday 26 – Winners declared. I’ll update commentary once today’s Queensland election is over. The last spots discussed in the this blog went to the Greens’ Laura Nutall in Brindabella and Liberal Ed Cocks in Ginninderra.
The final party numbers are Labor ten, Liberal nine, Greens four, Independents for Canberra one, Fiona Carrick Independent one. The members re-elected, elected, defeated and retiring are as follows.
Brindabella
- (1) Mark Parton (LIB) re-elected
- (2) Deborah Morris (LIB) elected
- (3) Caitlin Tough (ALP) elected
- (4) Taimus Werner-Gibbings (ALP) elected
- (5) Laura Nutall (GRN) re-elected
- Defeated – Mick Gentleman (ALP)
- Retired – Joy Burch (ALP) and Nicole Lauder (LIB)
Ginninderra
- (1) Yvette Berry (ALP) re-elected
- (2) Tara Cheyne (ALP) re-elected
- (3) Peter Cain (LIB) re-elected
- (4) Jo Clay (GRN) re-elected
- (5) Chiaka Barry (LIB) re-elected
- Defeated – Elizabeth Kikkert (Family First candidate, ex-Liberal MLA)
Kurrajong
- (1) Andrew Barr (ALP) re-elected
- (2) Elizabeth Lee (LIB) re-elected
- (3) Rachel Stephen-Smith (ALP)
- (4) Shane Rattenbury (GRN)
- (5) Thomas Emmerson (IND)
- Defeated – Rebecca Vassarotti (GRN)
Murrumbidgee
- (1) Jeremy Hanson (LIB) re-elected
- (2) Chris Steel (ALP) re-elected
- (3) Fiona Carrick (IND) elected
- (4) Ed Cocks (LIB) re-elected
- (5) Marisa Paterson (ALP)
- Defeated – Emma Davidson (GRN)
Yerrabi
- (1) Michael Petterson (ALP) re-elected
- (2) Suzanne Orr (ALP) re-elected
- (3) Leanne Castley (LIB) re-elected
- (4) James Milligan (LIB) re-elected
- (5) Andrew Braddock (GRN) re-elected
The post below is yet to be updated but tracks some of my commentary over the past week. I won’t have time to review the content until after today’s Queensland election.
Update Friday 25 October – Today’s distribution of preferences has narrowed the lead of Greens’ candidate Laura Nutall to 75 votes in the race for the final seat. After a phenomenally long day working on preparations for the Queensland, I don’t have the focus power to work out why the lead has narrowed. But thereit appears there are very few votes left to count so I still believe that Nutall is far enough ahead to win the final seat. I believe the count will finish tomorrow. Ed Cocks again wins the second Liberal seat with a 174 vote lead over party colleague Armadeep Singh at the critical point in the count.
Update Thursday 24 October – Greens MLA Laura Nuttall has widened her lead beyond 300 votes and is now certain to win re-election to the final seat in Brindabella.
And in the other seat still in doubnt, today’s distribution of preferences elected Liberal Ed Cocks in Murrumbidgee instead of Amardeep Singh who had been elected in previous counts. Best to wait for the final count to call the second Liberal seat in Murrumbidgee.
Update Wednesday 23 October – the big news is that today’s distribution of preferences elected the Greens’ Laura Nuttall to the final seat in Brindabella where on Saturday night it appeared third Liberal candidate James Daniels would win. As I explained inside this post on Monday, the Liberal first preference vote in Saturday night’s distribution of preferences was around 0.15 quotas higher than the final first preference count on Saturday night. Today’s first preference count for the distribution of preferences finally reflected a declining Liberal vote and resulted in Nutall winning the final Brindabella seat.
The table below repeats my analysis from Monday showing the final seven candidates. The table shows the % votes and quotas from Monday and as well as today’s totals.
What has happened since Saturday is that the Liberal total vote has declined which has caused Daniels’ partial quota to slip. Labor’s vote has risen, support for both Caitlin Tough and Taimus Werner-Gibbings up but Mick Gentleman down. The vote for Laura Nutall has risen and put her ahead of Mick Gentleman, meaning Gentleman is the next excluded candidate. On Saturday night’s distribution Nutall was excluded.
So today’s count sees Gentleman’s preferences elect Tough and Werner-Gibbings, and a strong flow of preferences along with a higher Green vote and lower Liberal vote results in Nutall defeating Daniels in the race for the final seat.
In today’s count, Nuttall’s victory is by just 37 votes so we must wait for further counting to confirm the result. However, given the Liberal vote has further to fall, Nutall must now be listed as favourite to win the final seat in Brindabella..
Brindabella
Status: – Liberal 2, Labor 2, final seat currently goes to third Liberal James Daniels but there is still a chance that Greens Laura Nutall or even Labor’s Mick Gentleman could beat Daniels to the final seat. Liberal member Nicole Lawder and Labor member Joy Burch retired at the election. Definite new members are Deborah Morris (Liberal), Caitlin Tough (Labor) and Taimus Werner-Gibbings (Labor). At this stage Liberal James Daniels is a new member and Labor’s Mick Gentleman and Greens Laura Nutall are defeated but these final seats are yet to be resolved.
In Brindabella it will take time to resolve who has won the final seat. Early on election night, based on electronic pre-poll votes, it appeared certain that the Liberal Party would win three seats as the party’s total vote was around 2.75 quotas. But by the end of the evening, the addition of polling day votes saw the Liberal total decline to 2.57 quotas.
The table below shows the percentage vote and quotas by party based on the released election night electronic vote distribution of preferences, and the first preference votes by party at the end of election night.
| Distribution Totals (49.2% counted) | Final Election Night (69.5% counted) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | % Vote | Quotas | % Vote | Quotas |
| Liberal | 45.35 | 2.72 | 42.90 | 2.57 |
| Labor | 33.69 | 2.02 | 34.19 | 2.05 |
| Greens | 8.27 | 0.50 | 9.16 | 0.55 |
| Inds for Canberra | 6.88 | 0.41 | 7.50 | 0.45 |
| Otders | 5.81 | 0.35 | 6.24 | 0.37 |
With 49.2% of the vote counted and the Liberal Party on 2.72 quotas, the party elects three MLAs and Labor two. But as the final two columns above show, the Liberal total vote declined to 2.57 quotas by the end of the night. Labor’s total has risen slightly, as have the Greens and Independents for Canberra. These changes could have an important impact on the order of exclusion during the distribution of preferences.
The table below is drawn from Saturday night’s distribution of preferences and shows the votes, % vote and quotas by candidate when only seven candidates remained in the count. At this point of the count, Liberals Mark Parton and Deborah Morris had both reached quota and been elected. As shown in the final column, Saturday night’s preference distribution went on to elect a third Liberal and two Labor members.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % Vote | Quotas | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Parton | LIB | 5,492 | 16.67 | 1.00 | Elected 1 |
| Deborah Morris | LIB | 5,492 | 16.67 | 1.00 | Elected 2 |
| Caitlin Tough | ALP | 5,213 | 15.82 | 0.95 | to be Elected 3 |
| James Daniels | LIB | 4,356 | 13.22 | 0.79 | to be Elected 5 |
| Taimus Werner-Gibbings | ALP | 3,789 | 11.50 | 0.69 | to be Elected 4 |
| Mick Gentleman | ALP | 3,567 | 10.83 | 0.65 | to be Defeated |
| Laura Nutall | GRN | 3,478 | 10.56 | 0.63 | to be Defeated |
But we know that the Liberal vote could be around 0.15 quotas lower which could put James Daniels on 0.64 quotas, only just above Labor’s Mick Gentleman and Green Laura Nutall.
The next exclusion in the election night count distributes Nutall’s preferences, which would elect Caitlin Tough and leave the other candidate on James Daniels 0.82 quotas, Werner-Gibbings 0.80 and Gentleman 0.72. The distribution of Tough’s surplus makes the numbers Daniels 0.85, Werner-Gibbings 0.88 and Gentleman. If you total by party, at this point the Liberals have 2.85 quotas and Labor 2.64 quotas having done remarkably well on preferences.
With the drop in Liberal vote in the final election night tally, there is a chance that Gentleman could defeat Daniels. Or Laura Nutall could outlast Gentleman and hang on to a third seat at the expense of Liberal James Daniels.
All up a complex count I will try and find time to follow over the next few days.
Ginninderra
Status – No change, Labor two, Liberal two, Greens one
There is little doubt over the result in Ginninderra. Labor’s Yvette Berry and Tara Cheyne are re-elected, as is Liberal Peter Caine and the Greens Jo Clay. Liberal turned Independent Elizabeth Kikkert has been defeated and it appears certain that Liberal Chiaka Barry will be the new second Liberal MLA.
Kurrajong
Status – Labor two, Liberal one, Greens one, Independents for Canberra one, gaining one seat at the expense of the Greens.
No doubt over the result. Greens Rebecca Vassarotti defeated by Independent Tom Emerson.
Murrumbidgee
Status – Labor two, Liberal two, Fiona Carrick Independent one, gaining a seat at the expense of the Greens.
No doubt over the party composition of Murrumbidgee, but who wins the second Liberal seat remains in doubt. Labor’s Chris Steel and Marisa Paterson are re-elected along with Liberal Jeremy Hanson. The Greens’ Emma Davidson has been defeated, replaced by newly elected Independent Fiona Carrick. There is a tight battle between Liberals MLA Ed Cocks and party colleague Amardeep Singh for the second Liberal seat. On Saturday night’s preference count, Singh was elected, but his primary vote had slipped on the end of election night count.
Cocks and Singh were on the ticket in 2020 with Singh finishing third and Cocks fourth. Cocks defeated Singh at the re-count when Giulia Jones retired so this is the third contest between the pair.
Yerrabi
Status – Labor two, Liberal two, Greens one. No changes in elected members.
There have been suggestions that Independent for Canberra candidate David Pollard could defeat the Greens’ Andrew Braddock. That does not happen on the distribution of preferences as Pollard is excluded relatively early in the count. I see nothing in subsequent counting that suggests the gap between Braddock and Pollard narrows.
Antony
Thank you so much for the clear setting out of results to date and your analysis of likely outcomes of seats still in doubt . As always!!!
Thanks for this Antony. Appreciate your work.
I am wondering what the result might have been had we been using a first past the post system like the UK does?
COMMENT: Impossible to know. First you would have to divide the ACT into 25 electoral districts and then assume that the votes cast by party under proportional representation would be cast the same way under first past the post. The assumption is that under single member preferential voting Labor would almost always be elected with a majority in the ACT. How it would do under first past the post, a system not used in Australia for more than half a century, is nearly impossible to know.
You wouldn’t necessarily have to have 25 single member electorates.
Though it would be a very unusual arrangement you could still have the current 5 electorates each electing 5 members with each voter having 5 votes to allocate to individual candidates as they choose (or not).
COMMENT: Block voting? Worse than first past the post. Experience in NSW in the 1890s and the Senate from 1901 to 1917 is that block voting delivers all seats to the same party.
People in the England for example manage to spread their votes in multi member council wards amongst different parties. Some don’t even use all their votes. And it’s rare for all the candidates for the same party to get exactly the same amount of votes in the same ward.
The ward I currently live in has a Green and a Labour councillor
See here – https://democracy.brighton-hove.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=190&RPID=99410797
When I stood for office many years ago I got 200+ more votes than my party colleague. The vote spread for the 3 Tories that were elected was around 500 votes . People clearly didn’t vote as a block for all the candidates from the same party.
COMMENT: As I said previously, it was abandoned in Australia in the first years after the formation of political parties because of numerous examples where it filled all seats with representatives from the same party. PR-STV would always be used now.
To David Vickers – first past the ost would require single member electorates consisting of only 1500 voters. Or a much smaller number of members.
Unfortunately not very practical for ACT.
COMMENT: You’re a factor of ten out. If you drew 25 electorates in the ACT the average enrolment would be around 13,000.
Antony, I’m wondering if you have any reflections on the turnout rate?
Looking at the full count, Brindabella appears to be at 82.8% of enrolment, whereas it got to 90.7% in 2020, and this is the electorate with the best turnout. It makes me wonder if there is a bigger-than-usual chunk of declaration/mobile/telephone votes and extra postal votes yet to come, or if something else is going on?
(Disclaimer: Yes, I was a Greens candidate in Ginninderra, but have tried to just keep my nerd hat on for this.)
COMMENT: See what the final figure is. I’m working in Brisbane and haven’t got time to look at it.
Surprised Liberals have the reverse issue for Act elections. For other states, the votes counted later in the process (pre polls and postals) generally favour the coalition and allow the Liberals or nationals to win close races that Labor could be leading in on election night.
COMMENT: In the ACT the pre-poll vote is counted first because it is taken electronically. So the trend you refer to in other states is the reverse in the ACT.
Ok that makes sense that the Labor and Green vote is higher for the ordinary election day votes if they are counted last