2026 – Farrer By-election – Result Commentary

Final figures published.

On this page I will provide commentary on the results of the 2026 Farrer by-election when I get chance. Use the links below to navigate between the four results pages that I will be updating.

Links: Result Summary | Commentary | Swing Tables | Count Centre Results

Tuesday 26 May

[27 May – I’ve tightened the wording in the paragraphs below to make it clear I’m talking about preferences derived from the distribution, that is including intermediary steps, rather than precise flows from individual candidates to the final pairing of Farley (ONP) and Milthorpe (IND).]

The preference distribution has been published providing a picture of how preferences moved around. More precise data on preference flows to the final pairing of candidates from each of the excluded candidates will be published in early June.

• The first eight exclusions during the distribution left four candidates in the race, 42.4% for Farley (One Nation), 32.4% Milthorpe (Independent), 13.9% Butkowski (Liberal) and 11.2% Robertson (National).
• The distribution of the first eight candidates to this point included votes (10.2%). Preferences from these exclusions split 42.7% to Milthorpe (Independent), 28.2% Farley (One Nation), 15.0% Butkowski (Liberal) and 14.1% Robertson (National).
• At this point, Milthorpe would have required 70% of preferences on the exclusion of the Liberal and National candidates to win. I suspect the Coalition parties could not have generated such a preference flow wsith a how-to-vote recommendation, and recommending preferences to the Independent could have provoked internal party dissension. The late in the count distribution of Liberal preferences to One Nation discussed below was relatively weak.
• On the exclusion of Robertson (National), his preferences split 17.5% to One Nation, 17.1% to the Independent and 65.4% Liberal. That left the totals as Farley 44.4%, Milthorpe 34.3% and Butkowski 21.3%.
• Milthorpe would have required 74% on the exclusion of the Liberal to win from this point.
• On the exclusion of Butkowski (Liberal), 61.9% of preferences flowed to Farley and 38.1% to Milthorpe. That is not a particularly strong distribution of Liberal preferences to One Nation.
• Overall preferences split 55.6% to Farley (One Nation) and 44.4% to Milthorpe (Independent)
• What will be interesting to see when preference flow data is released in a fortnight is whether there is any difference between Liberal and National preference flows to One Nation. From the distribution we know that 61.9% of preferences flowed to One Nation on the Liberal exclusion. But at the previous exclusion, the Liberal had received just under two-thirds of National preferences. The flow data when released will provide separate flows to One Nation from the Liberal and National candidates, as well as the other eight candidates excluded. The 61.9% distribution to One Nation on the Liberal exclusion is low in my opinion. Does it include a higher figure for the Nationals and lower for the Liberals, or is the distribution figure diluted by essentially random preferences from other excluded candidates that passed through the Liberal before reaching One Nation or the Independent?

The graph below shows the percentage vote by remaining candidate as lower placed candidates were excluded during the distribution of preferences.

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Friday 22 May – counting about finished with today the cut-off for return of postal votes. A full distribution of preferences will take place next week to formally confirm that One Nation’s David Farley is the new member for Farrer.

Monday 3:45pm – update of further counting.

Sunday 10 May updates

7:30pm Updated with further check counting.

3:45pm – check counting of election night count centres counts underway. Extra postal votes added. No significant change in figures.

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Midnight – the preference count for the Griffith PPVC has arrived so tonight’s counting is all over.

11:20pm – all polling places have now reported. The addition of the Albury and Lavington pre-polls added around a percent to Milthorpe at the end of the night with One Nation’s David Farley dipping under 40% for the first time all evening. We now await only preferences counts for the Albury and Griffth pre-poll centres.

10:45pm – Albury pre-poll has arrived and boosted Milthorpe’s primary vote but not enough to shift the overall result.

9:40pm – with the result clear I’ll take the opportunity for a break and be back in 40 minutes to add more figures. There is clearly a gap till the pre-poll centres report.

9:00pm – I’ve turned off polling place comparison. Only pre-poll votes centres are yet to report and these can have a different pattern to results at a general election. On simple percentages the result remains clear as a victory for One Nation.

8:25pm – 20%. That’s all the Liberals and Nationals have managed to poll together in the Farrer by-election. In a seat that has been held one or of the other parties for eight decades. If the two parties can’t retain Farrer, what rural and regional seats can the two parties retain? And if One Nation sweeps up Coalition rural and regional seats, what is the alternative government to Labor?

I can see the Labor Party dragging out Queensland 2001 ads that portrayed Pauline Hanson as a back seat driver in a possible Coalition government. Labor under Beattie had a landslide win at that election and astonished everyone by sweeping most of the seats on the Gold Coast. Labor ran on the stability card which had a big appeal in south-east Queensland.

The Farrer result is so bad it could rule out any possibility of the Coalition winning a majority in its own right. That would mean the only alternative to a Labor government would be the Coalition dependent on the support of One Nation in the House. I think that would hinder rather than help Liberal Party efforts to recover urban seats.

8:15pm – nearly everything to come is a pre-poll voting centre but I don’t expect much change in the trend.

7:50pm – formally decided to call it. The trend is so clear now that Milthorpe is up on primaries but still trails One Nation by more than 10% and can’t make that up with preferences favouring One Nation.

7:45pm – Milthorpe gaining primary votes in Albury but going backwards after preferences. All the trends point to One nation finishing on around 41% and Milthorpe on 28% on which basis David farley will win for One Nation.

7:40pm – the Liberals and Nationals are currently struggling to achieve 20% between them. That is a truly woeful result for the parties that have held this seat for the last 80 years.

7:40pm – the result is firming up as a One Nation victory. The first Albury booths have arrived and Milthorpe’s vote not not up enough to compensate for missing Labor preferences. The primary pattern is settling in towards around 40% primary for One Nation and 28% for Milthorpe. On that trend David Farley for One Nation will win.

7:20pm – after preference swing to One Nation settling in at +6%, but the more progressed primary count continues to show the swing declining for One Nation and rising for Milthorpe.

7:15pm – as polling places report, the One Nation projected percentage primary vote is dipping to the low 40s and Michelle Milthorpe rising to the high 20s. Not enough to be anything other than a One Nation win at the moment but it suggests a significant difference between the primary vote swing in small and large booths.

7:07pm – On current trend the One Nation percentage primary vote is settling in the mid 40s and Michelle Milthorpe in the mid 20s. Of course not many of the major centres reporting yet.

6:50pm – still nothing but small rural booths.

6:40pm – so two small rural booths both reporting big swings to One Nation. Too early to call.

6:35pm – some of the loss of Liberal vote tonight will be soaked up by a National candidate also being in the seat. Remember that both Coalition parties are contesting the by-election.

6:30pm – first figures from Rankin Springs. Very small booth but good result for One Nation. I expect One Nation to do particularly well on early figures.
6:20pm – I won’t be publishing many comments tonight as I’m busy trying to publish results.

6:00pm – The AEC will be conducting an indicative preference count tonight between Independent Michelle Milthorpe and One Nation’s David Farley. For the purposes of my two-candidate preferred count, I’ve allocated the Liberal two-candidate vote from last year’s election to Farley. This may be an unreliable guide to swing. But I think we will be paying more attention to the first preference counts initially to estimate who is likely to finish top two.

Note that there are a lot of small rural booths likely to come in early where One Nation poll strongly. Liberal and Milthorpe vote will be stronger at the Albury end of the electorate. I will be publishing matched primary vote swings through the night, but the variety of polling place results means it will take some time for the swings and projected primary percentages results to settle down into a reliable pattern.

4:00pm Some numbers on votes already cast.

There have been 15,801 postal vote applications representing 12.7% of enrolment. Of those 10,008 have been returned representing 8.0% of enrolment and a 63.3% return rate of postal votes. Tonight there will be a batch of 4,000 postal votes pre-processed and ready to count.

There have been 47,591 pre-poll votes cast at early voting cen tres representing 38.2% of enrolment. The numbers by pre-poll centre are Albury (12,586), Barooga (1,456), Buronga (1,256), Corowa (3,303), Denilquin (3,001), Griffith (7,141), Lavington (8,857), Leeton (3,045), Moama (3,444), Mulwala (1,474) and Narrandera (2,209).

All that means we will receive most of the polling day votes before any pre-poll votes. There may only be around 40,000 votes cast today to be counted tonight. These will be most of the early figures.

Noon 9 May – I’ll be here publishing some preliminary information on the result from 5pm AEST with results live on other pages after 6pm. With a range of small booths in the electorate, we may receive first figures before 6:30pm.