2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Braddon Updates

Final Update – End of counting Saturday 6 April

NOTE: Got to this post for updated results on the final day of counting, Saturday 6 April.

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Felix Ellis (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 3 – Anita Dow (Labor)
  • Re-elected 4 – Roger Jaensch (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 5 – Shane Broad (Labor)
  • Elected 6 – Miriam Beswick (Jacqui Lambie Network)
  • Elected 7 – Craig Garland (Independent)

Other Updates: Bass ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

Table updates inside post.

Final Day Counting – Saturday 6 April

Detail on the final day of counting can be found in this post.

End of Counting Friday 5 April – After Count 71

Quota – 8,875 votes

The Party totals at this point are

  • Liberal 3.66 quotas, three quotas filled with the surplus 0.66 quotas held by one remaining candidate.
  • Labor 1.99 quotas, one quota filled with 0.99 quotas held by one remaining candidate.
  • Jacqui Lambie Network 1.10 quotas split over two candidates.
  • Independent Craig Garland has 5,479 votes or 0.61 quotas.
  • The Greens have 0.55 quotas held by a single candidate.

There are six candidate still alive in the count at Count 72 –

  • Shane Broad (ALP) – 8,808 votes – 0.99 quotas
  • Giovanna Simpson (LIB) – 5,870 votes – 0.66 quotas
  • Craig Garland (IND) – 5,479 votes – 0.61 quotas
  • Miriam Beswick (JLN) – 5,011 votes – 0.56 quotas
  • Darren Briggs (GRN) – 4,901 votes – 0.55 quotas
  • James Redgrave (JLN) – 4,781 votes – 0.54 quotas

Tomorrow the following counts will be undertaken –

  • At some point 67 votes will flow to Shane Broad (ALP) and put him over quota. Whenver this occurs it has little impact on the rest of the count.
  • James Redgrave (JLN) will be excluded and put Miriam Beswick (JLN) either just short or just over quota. Beswick will win one of the final seats.
  • Once Redgrave is excluded, and perhaps a JLN surplus distributed, we will know the final gap between Simpson and Garland.
  • Darren Briggs (GRN) will then be excluded. He will have 5,000 to 5,500 votes to distribute.
  • Giovanna Simpson (LIB) currently leads Craig Garland by 391 votes. I expect that this lead will narrow on JLN preferences.
  • Assuming a worst case higher gap, say Garland trails by 400 votes when Briggs is excluded. To win he only needs 400 more Greens preferences than Simpson (LIB) out of more than 5,000 ballot papers to be distributed. Taking account of JLN preferences, I suspect Garland will need to gain fewer than 400 votes.
  • Given that Green voters are more likely to number preferences beyond the seven Green candidates, and are least likely to preference the Liberals, there are certain to be enough preferences for Garland to gain the required votes to pass Simpson.
  • If Miriam Beswick (JLN) is short of a quota when Briggs is excluded, some Green preferences may leak to Beswick ahead of Garland.
  • In short, Garland is favoured to defeat Giovanna Simpson (LIB), but we won’t know for sure until the ballot papers are counted.

I’ll be back with commentary on the count on Saturday.

End of Counting Thursday 4 April – After Count 57

Party Totals – between Counts 1 and 57, party total quotas have changed as follows –

  • The Liberal total was risen slightly from 3.65 quotas to 3.67, recovering after leakage out of the ticket from Jeremy Rockliff’s surplus.
  • The Labor total rose from 1.98 quotas to 2.08.
  • Jacqui Lambie Network rose from 0.91 to 1.11 quotas spread across three candidates.
  • The Greens total has dipped from 0.53 quotas to 0.52.
  • Independent Craig Garland has risen from 0.41 quotas to 0.58, now leading the Greens. Garland has done well with preferences from every excluded minor party and independent.
  • The total for all other candidates and parties has slipped from 0.52 quotas to zero as all other candidates have been excluded.

News on how the party tickets have faired.

  • Liberal – Jeremy Rockliff was declared elected at Count 1 on Tuesday. The distribution of Rockliff’s surplus elected Felix Ellis to the second Liberal seat. Third Liberal MHA Roger Jaensch has 7,408 votes or 0.83 quotas and will be the third Liberal elected. The battle is then on for the Liberals to elect a fourth member. Giovanna Simpson had been the fourth placed candidate but has slipped to fifth place with 3,689 votes or 0.42 quotas, narrowly trailing Vonette Mead on 3,737 or 0.42 quotas. If Simpson were excluded and two-thirds of her preferences flowed to Mead, that would leave both Mead and Jaensch short of a quota and improve the chances of the Liberal Party winning a fourth seat. However, it is more likely that Simpson’s preferences will put Jaensch over a quota leaving Mead with the Liberal’s surplus of about 0.68 quotas in the race against Craig Garland for the final seat.
  • Labor – Both of Labor’s sitting MHA’s, Shane Broad and Anita Dow will be re-elected tomorrow when Amanda Diprose and Chris Lynch are excluded. With Labor almost exactly on two quotas, Labor’s preferences will play little part in the contest for the final seat.
  • Greens – The Greens’ ticket reduced to just lead candidate Darren Briggs with 4,652 or 0.52 quotas. He now trails Independent Craig Garland and Briggs will be excluded at some point.
  • Jacqui Lambie Network – JLN has more than a quota of votes but these are split across three candidates. The leakage of preferences out of the party’s ticket has been low in other divisions so the party should stay above a quota as its personnel is reduced to one. Craig Cutts is third on 2,897 votes and his preferences will determine which of Miriam Beswick on 3,612 or James Redgrave on 3,325 wins a seat for the party.
  • Independent Craig Garland – Garland nominated as a single candidate group and began the count with 0.41 quotas. Unworried by preference leakage, he has benefited from preference flows from every other excluded party and independent. He now leads the Greens with 0.58 quotas and only needs a moderate flow of preferences to beat the fourth Liberal and win election as an Independent member for Braddon.

If Garland is elected, the Liberal Party will be left to try and form government with only 14 lower house members.

Totals after Count 33 – end of Wednesday counting

The final seat in Braddon remains in doubt. Liberals Giovanna Simpson and Vonette Mead are competing to finish fourth on the Liberal ticket. The Greens total has declined to 0.49 quotas while Independent Craig Garland is now on 0.44 quotas.

Exclusions to come tomorrow include the second last Greens candidate leaving only lead candidate Darren Briggs. Ungrouped candidate Peter Freshney, the final SFF candidate plus the single Animal Justice candidate will be excluded and these could impact on Garland and Greens. Also tomorrow we will see the first Liberal candidates excluded and any leakage will damage Liberal prospects for a fourth seat.

The Liberals need to win a fourth seat in Braddon to bring the party to 15 seats. If the Liberals don’t win a fourth sea, the government will have only 14 seats and three JLN seats will not be enough to control the House of Assembly without also dealing with the two Independents.

Party Totals – between Counts 1 and 33, party total quotas have changed –

  • The Liberal total was declined from 3.65 quotas to 3.59 due to leakage out of the ticket from Jeremy Rockliff’s surplus.
  • The Labor total rose from 1.98 quotas to 2.01.
  • Jacqui Lambie Network rose from 0.91 to 0.95 quotas.
  • The Greens total has dipped from 0.53 quotas to 0.49.
  • Craig Garland’s totals have risen from 0.41 quotas to 0.44./li>
  • The total for all other candidates and parties slipped from 0.52 quotas to 0.51.
Count 33 Candidate Totals
Candidate/Group Party Votes Pct Quotas
Candidate competing for election
*Jeremy Rockliff (Elected 1) LIB 8,875 12.50 1.00
*Felix Ellis (Elected 2) LIB 8,875 12.50 1.00
Lambie Network (3 candidates) JLN 8,436 11.88 0.95
*Anita Dow ALP 6,097 8.59 0.69
*Roger Jaensch LIB 6,042 8.51 0.68
*Shane Broad ALP 4,802 6.76 0.54
Craig Garland IND 3,872 5.45 0.44
Darren Briggs GRN 3,241 4.57 0.37
Giovanna Simpson LIB 2,804 3.95 0.32
Candidates to be distributed as preferences
Other Liberal (3) LIB 2,681 3.78 0.30
Other Labor (5) ALP 6,969 9.82 0.79
Other Greens (6) GRN 1,141 1.61 0.13
Shooters Fishers Farmers (3) SFF 1,941 2.73 0.22
Animal Justice Party (1) AJP 1,020 1.44 0.11
Ungrouped (4) IND 1,537 2.17 0.17

Within the Jacqui Lambie Network ticket, Miriam Beswick on 3,087 is just ahead of James Redgrave on 2,900. The preferences of third placed Craig Cutts on 2,449 will determine whether Beswick or Redgrave will be elected.

After Count 2 – Rockliff Surplus Distributed

The distribution of Jeremy Rockliff’s surplus put Felix Ellis over quota to fill the second seat. There was also a strong flow of preferences to Roger Jaensch which will ensure he holds the Liberal Party’s third seat. There was a small leakage out of the Liberal ticket which reduced the Liberal Party’s surplus beyond three quotas to 0.57.

If the Liberals do not win the fourth seat in Braddon, then the Liberal Party cannot win more than 14 seats. That would leave a minority Liberal government that relied on three Jacqui Lambie Network MHAs one seat short of a majority. It would make the position of Speaker very important.

Braddon Count 2 – Candidate Totals
Candidate/Group Party Votes Pct Quotas
Candidate competing for election
*Jeremy Rockliff (Elected 1) LIB 8,875 12.50 1.00
*Felix Ellis (Elected 2) LIB 9,256 13.04 1.04
Lambie Network (3 candidates) JLN 8,222 11.58 0.93
*Anita Dow ALP 5,897 8.31 0.66
*Roger Jaensch LIB 5,808 8.18 0.65
*Shane Broad ALP 4,685 6.60 0.53
Craig Garland IND 3,686 5.19 0.42
Giovanna Simpson LIB 2,725 3.84 0.31
Darren Briggs GRN 2,517 3.55 0.28
Candidates to be distributed as preferences
Other Liberal (3) LIB 5,048 7.11 0.57
Other Labor (5) ALP 7,216 10.16 0.81
Other Greens (6) GRN 2,237 3.15 0.25
Shooters Fishers Farmers (3) SFF 2,117 2.98 0.24
Animal Justice Party (1) AJP 890 1.25 0.10
Ungrouped (4) IND 1,800 2.54 0.20

Totals at Count 1 – Final First Preference Tallies

Braddon – Count 1 Party Totals
Party (Candidates) Votes Pct Quotas
Liberal Party (7) 32,404 45.64 3.65
Australian Labor Party (7) 17,533 24.70 1.98
Jacqui Lambie Network (3) 8,079 11.38 0.91
Tasmanian Greens (7) 4,701 6.62 0.53
IND Craig Garland (1) 3,638 5.12 0.41
Shooters Fishers Farmers (3) 2,048 2.88 0.23
Ungrouped (4) 1,725 2.43 0.19
Animal Justice Party (1) 866 1.22 0.10

With Jeremy Rockliff elected with 2,21 quotas, the distribution of his surplus at Count 2 will help determine whether Roger Jaensch will retain the Liberal Party’s third seat. It will also reveal how much leakage out of the Liberal ticket will occur. Any loss of Liberal votes from Rockliff’s surplus will harm Liberal chances of winning a fourth seat.

The table below has been grouped into candidates and parties with a chance of being elected, and other candidates and parties that will be excluded and distributed as preferences.

Rather than separate the Jacquie Lambie Network into candidate totals, I have included the party total as it is the party total competing with candidates from other groups. As long as there is not too much leakage from the Lambie ticket, then one of the group’s candidates will be elected. That is likely to be either Miriam Beswick or James Redgrave.

Braddon Count 1 – Candidate Totals
Candidate/Group Party Votes Pct Quotas
Candidate competing for election
*Jeremy Rockliff (Elected 1) LIB 19,573 27.57 2.21
Lambie Network (3 candidates) JLN 8,079 11.38 0.91
*Anita Dow ALP 5,816 8.19 0.66
*Felix Ellis LIB 5,163 7.27 0.58
*Shane Broad ALP 4,589 6.46 0.52
Craig Garland IND 3,638 5.12 0.41
*Roger Jaensch LIB 2,704 3.81 0.30
Darren Briggs GRN 2,493 3.51 0.28
Giovanna Simpson LIB 1,852 2.61 0.21
Candidates to be distributed as preferences
Other Liberal (3) LIB 3,112 4.38 0.35
Other Labor (5) ALP 7,128 10.04 0.80
Other Greens (6) GRN 2,208 3.11 0.25
Shooters Fishers Farmers (3) SFF 2,048 2.88 0.23
Animal Justice Party (1) AJP 866 1.22 0.10

1 thought on “2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Braddon Updates”

  1. Is it possible to see the results from individual booths?

    COMMENT: They will be published on the Tasmanian Electoral Commission site soon.

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