2024 Tasmanian Election – Final Day of Counting

Today, Saturday 6 April, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission will finalise the distribution of preferences for last month’s Tasmanian election.

Counts were completed in Clark and Franklin yesterday with all seven vacancies filled and members formally declared elected. Three seats remain to be declared in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. You can check the overall election result summary at this link, or my posts following the distribution of preferences over the last week for each seat using the links below.

Updates by Division: Bass ! Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

The final three seats in Bass and Lyons are clear and today’s counting will merely confirm projected winners. The same applies to two of the three vacancies in Braddon.

This post will concentrate on the last seat in Braddon, a tight contest between fourth Liberal candidate Giovanna Simpson and Independent Craig Garland. It is predicted that Garland will catch and pass Simpson on preferences to win the final seat.

This will leave the Liberal Party with just 14 seats in the 35 seat House of Assembly. With Labor on 10 seats having ruled out taking office, the Rockliff government will need to negotiate with an 11 member crossbench, five Greens, three Independents and three first time members representing the Jacquie Lambie Network. There may be some votes where the Labor opposition votes with the government and is opposed by the crossbench.

I will take note other members declared elected today, but for the most part this post will concentrate on the race for the final seat in Braddon.

Braddon Updates

To follow the Braddon count I will use the table below. For the six remaining candidates, at each count the table will show votes held and the quotas those votes represent. As each new count is added, a total for change since the last count will also be shown.

The technically minded might want to now what the “Exh/LBF” column is. It is a total of ballot papers that have run out of further preferences up to and including the count shown. It also includes a small number of ‘loss-by-fraction” votes that are fractional votes created by the distribution of preferences for surplus to quota votes. As I said, for the technically minded.

I’ll have more to say once we start seeing new counts reported.

Final 2022 Braddon Counts – Saturday 6 April (Quota 8,875)
Count Detail Broad
(ALP)
Simpson
(LIB)
Garland
(IND)
Beswick
(JLN)
Briggs
(GRN)
Redgrave
(JLN)
Exh/LBF
72 Votes 8,808 5,870 5,479 5,011 4,901 4,781 643
Quota 0.992 0.661 0.617 0.565 0.552 0.539 0.072
77 Change +276 +147 +259 +3,788 +115 -4,781 +196
Votes 9,084 6,017 5,738 8,799 5,016 .. 839
Quota 1.024 0.678 0.647 0.991 0.565 .. 0.095
78 Change -209 +15 +27 +57 +19 .. +91
Votes 8,875 6,032 5,765 8,856 5,035 .. 930
Quota 1.000 0.680 0.650 0.998 0.567 .. 0.105
79 Change .. +281 +1,491 +1,125 -4,950 .. +2,053
Votes .. 6,313 7,256 9,981 85 .. 2,983
Quota .. 0.711 0.818 1.125 0.010 .. 0.336
84 Change .. +19 +24 +0 -85 +0 +42
Votes .. 6,332 7,280 9,981 0 .. 3,025
Quota .. 0.713 0.820 1.125 .. .. 0.341
85 Change .. +149 +581 -1,106 .. .. +376
Votes .. 6,481 7,861 8,875 .. .. 3,401
Quota .. 0.730 0.886 1.000 .. .. 0.383

Simpson’s lead over Garland
At count 72 – 391 votes
At count 77 – 279 votes
At count 78 – 267 votes
At count 79 – Garland ahead by 943 votes and will be elected
At count 84 – Garland ahead by 1,380 votes and fills the seventh seat.

Braddon

4:20pm – a final comment. In the last two days it became clear that Garland was doing well on preferences. There was caution in calling victory for him until the Greens votes were actually distributed. Two nights ago I estimated the Liberal lead at 400 and Garland needed to gain that many preferences over the Liberal. In the end he gained 1,200 on Green preferences. Of the Green preferences distributed, 41.5% exhausted, 30.0% to Garland, 22.7% to Beswick (JLN) and 5.7% to Liberal. The Beswick surplus was sourced from ballot papers from Briggs’ exclusion and these flowed even more strongly to Garland, 52.5% to Garland, Exhausted 34.0% and 13.5% to Simpson (LIB). In the end it wasn’t even close, Garland won easily.

4:00pm – Beswick’s (JLN) surplus lifts Garland to a lead of 1,380 votes over 4th Liberal Giovanna Simpson. Garland started the count with 0.41 quotas and finished with 0.88, doing spectacularly well on preferences from the Greens and all minor parties and independents across the ballot paper.

3:20pm – last bunch of reduced transfer value Green votes distributed adding 5 more votes to Garland’s lead. Next out will be surplus of Miriam Beswick (JLN). This surplus is 1,106 votes which in theory means it can overturn Garland’s lead, but in practice there are not enough votes to overcome Garland’s lead. Once Beswick’s surplus is distributed Garland will be officially declared elected to the 7th seat.

3:00pm – Briggs (GRN) has been excluded and after trailing by 267 votes before the exclusion, Craig Garland now leads by 943 votes with not enough votes in the count to change the result. Garland is elected and the Liberal Party miss out on the 4th seat the party looked like it would win on election night.

11:25 – Broad’s surplus narrowed the Liberal lead by another 12 votes to only 267. It also left Beswick (JLN) just short of the quota so the next step in the count will be the exclusion of Briggs (GRN) which will almost certainly put Garland ahead.

11:15 – a quick comment. Because the Lambie Network is short of a quota, it is likely they will not reach quota from the Labor surplus. That simplifies the count as after Broad is distributed, Briggs (GRN) will be excluded and that will determine whether Garland wins. Garland’s odds of victory are narrowing.

10:50 – Redgrave’s preferences did leak so Shane Broad (ALP) has passed quota but Miriam Beswick remains short of a quota. Broad is formally elected to the fifth seat in Braddon. More importantly, Garland gained 259 preferences to 147 for Simpson (LIB) narrowing her lead from 391 to just 279 vote. Garlands chances of victory increase further. The next step in the count will be exclusion of Broad’s 209 vote surplus.

9:30am – the count will start today with the exclusion of the Jacqui Lambie Network’s James Redgrave. Depending on the leakage rate of preferences, this may put Labor’s Shane Broad over quota. If the leakage rate stays under 19%, Redgrave’s preferences will put his colleague Miriam Beswick over quota and declared elected to Braddon’s fifth seat.

Bass Updates

3:00pm – Rebekah Pentland (Jacqui Lambie Network) passes quota and elected to the sixth seat. A surplus distribution to come after which Simon Wood will be re-elected in position 7.
2:45pm – the exclusion of Armstrong (JLN) did leave Rebekah Pentland short of a full quota on 0.91. Labor’s Geoff Lyons will be the next excluded.
12:45pm – the exclusion of Armstrong (JLN) did leave Rebekah Pentland short of a full quota on 0.91. Labor’s Geoff Lyons will be the next excluded.
11:45am – the second JLN candidate Angela Armstrong is currently being excluded but this will leave Rebekah Pentland short of a quota. Labor’s Geoff Lyons will be the next candidate out which should put Pentland over quota. The final seat will go to Liberal Simon Wood.
10:50 – The distribution of the 3,310 SFF votes saw 192 preference leak to the Greens and put Cecily Rosol over quota and declared elected. SFF preferences also put the Lambie Network in total over a quota but split across two candidates. The next count will distribute Rosol’s small surplus.
9:30am – the first counts this morning will be to exclude SFF candidate Michal Frydrych who has 3,310 votes. There is a good chance that SFF preferences will push the Lambie Network close to a quota, though that quota is split across two candidates.

Lyons Updates

2:45pm – all over in Lyons. Andrew Jenner (Jacqui Lambie Network) elected to the sixth seat, Tabatha Badger (Greens) to the seventh. Labor’s third placed Richard Goss was not excluded so Jenner and Badger were declared elected under the quota.
9:30am – a small count appeared early dealing with 99 reduced transfer value votes left over from the exclusion of the final SFF candidate yesterday. The next series of counts will exclude the 2nd placed Lambie Network candidate Troy Pfitzner. These will largely flow to party colleague, but leakage will probably result in Jenner falling short of a quota. After Jenner, the fourth placed Liberal candidate Stephanie Cameron will be excluded to the point where sitting Liberal Marc Shelton is declared elected to the fifth seat in Lyons.

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