2024 Tasmanian Election Results – Bass Updates

Final Update: End of the count Saturday 6 April

NOTE: Got to this post for updated results on the final day of counting, Saturday 6 April.

Elected and Projected Members

  • Re-elected 1 – Michael Ferguson (Liberal)
  • Re-elected 2 – Michelle O’Byrne (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Janie Finlay (Labor)
  • Elected 4 – Rob Fairs (Liberal)
  • Elected 5 – Cecily Rosol (Greens)
  • Elected 6 – Rebekah Pentland (Jacqui Lambie Network)
  • Re-elected 7 – Simon Wood (Liberal)
  • Defeated – Lara Alexander (Independent)

Other Updates: Braddon ! Clark ! Franklin ! Lyons

Updates inside post.


Final Day Counting – Saturday 6 April

Detail on the final day of counting can be found in this post.


End of Counting Friday 5 April – After Count 61

The Party totals at this point are

  • Liberal 3.17 quotas, two quotas filled with 1.17 split over two remaining candidates
  • Labor 2.49 quotas, two quotas filled with a surplus 0.49 quotas with a third candidate
  • Greens 0.90 quotas with one candidate
  • Jacquie Lambie Network, 0.90 quotas split over two candidates
  • Shooters Fishers and Farmers, 0.38 quotas with one candidate

In descending order the votes for the seven candidates still alive in the count at Count 61 are –

  • Cecily Rosol (Greens) – 8,370 votes – 0.99 quotas
  • Simon Wood (Liberal) – 5,341 votes – 0.63 quotas
  • Julie Sladden (Liberal) – 4,626 votes – 0.54 quotas
  • Geoff Lyons (Labor) – 4,170 votes – 0.49 quotas
  • Rebekah Pentland (Jacqui Lambie Network) – 4,115 votes – 0.48 quotas
  • Angela Armstrong (Jacqui Lambie Network) – 3,565 votes – 0.42 quotas
  • Michael Frydrych (Shooters Fioshers Farmers) – 3,310 votes – 0.39 quotas

Tomorrow the following counts will be undertaken –

  • Michael Frydrych (SFF) will be excluded and distributed which will most likely boost the total vote for JLN candidates
  • Angela Armstrong (JLN) will be excluded and distributed pushing Rebekah Pentland to 0.85-0.90 quotas
  • Geoff Lyons (ALP) will be excluded. If Cecily Rosol (GRN) hasn’t already been elected, Lyons surplus will put her over quota
  • Whenever Rosol is elected, her surplus at that point will be distributed before another exclusion
  • Julie Sladden (LIB) will be excluded and her preferences elect Simon Wood (LIB)
  • Rebekah Pentland will be elected, perhaps reaching a quota but possibly with less than a quota as the last candidate standing

End of Counting Thursday 4 April

News on how the party tickets have faired.

  • Liberal – Michel Ferguson was declared elected at Count 1 on Tuesday. One candidate was excluded today, Richard Trethewie. Newcomer Rob Fairs has twice the vote of any other Liberal candidate and will win the Liberal Party’s second seat. Sitting MHA Simon Wood is on 3,406 votes and 729 ahead of fourth placed Liberal Julie Slade. There are two other Liberal candidates with 4,504 between them and Wood should be able to maintain his lead and fill the third Liberal seat. The exclusion of Liberal candidates tomorrow will clarify the contest.
  • Labor – Both of Labor’s sitting MHA’s, Michelle O’Byrne and Janie Finlay, have been declared elected. Geoff Lyons is the third placed Labor candidate but there are not enough Labor votes left over beyond two quotas for him to be elected.
  • Greens – The Greens still have two candidates in the field, Cecily Rosol on 6,141 votes or 0.72 quotas, and Lauren Ball on 2,279 or 0.27 quotas. At some stage tomorrow Ball will be excluded and Rosol will be close enough to quota to be certain of victory.
  • Jacqui Lambie Network – The exclusion of third placed Jacqui Lambie Network candidate Ludwig Johnson will ensure that Rebekah Pentland will be elected. She is on 3,574 votes and Angela Armstrong has 3,090. The JLN ticket has 0.78 quotas which no other candidate can catch once the ticket is reduced to a single candidate.
  • Others – Only two candidates of other groups remain, Michal Frydrych (SFF) on 2,674 votes or 0.31 quotas, and Independent ex-Liberal Lara Alexander on 2,381 votes or 0.28 quotas. Their preferences will not change the outcome.

Totals after Count 2 – Distribution of Michael Ferguson Surplus Completed

3,801 votes were distributed as part of Michal Ferguson’s surplus and overwhelmingly stayed in the Liberal ticket. Of these, 1,175 flowed to Rob Fairs, 828 to Simon Wood, 408 to Julie Sladden and 1,108 distributed between the other three Liberal candidates. This put Simon Wood 622 votes ahead of Sladden and increased the chances that he will be re-elected to fill the third seat for the Liberal Party.

The new candidates totals are shown below.

Count 2 Candidate Totals
Candidate/Group Party Votes Pct Quotas
Candidates competing for election
*Michael Ferguson (Re-elected 1) LIB 8,491 12.50 1.00
*Michelle O’Byrne ALP 8,130 11.97 0.96
*Janie Finlay ALP 7,381 10.87 0.87
Rob Fairs LIB 6,902 10.16 0.81
Lambie Network (3 candidates) JLN 5,565 8.19 0.66
Cecily Rosol GRN 4,287 6.31 0.50
*Simon Wood LIB 2,777 4.09 0.33
Julie Sladden LIB 2,155 3.17 0.25
Candidates to be distributed as preferences
Other Liberals (3) LIB 5,208 7.67 0.61
Other Labor (5) ALP 4,869 7.17 0.57
Other Greens (6) GRN 3,882 5.72 0.46
Michal Frydrych SFF 1,637 2.41 0.19
Lara Alexander IND 1,534 2.26 0.18
Animal Justice AJP 1,004 1.48 0.12
Other Independents (5) IND 4,084 6.01 0.48

Within the Jacqui Lambie Network ticket, Rebekah Pentland on 2,589 is far enough ahead of Angela Armstrong on 2,240 to be sure of winning the party’s Bass seat.


Totals at Count 1 – Final First Preference Tallies

Count 1 Party Totals
Party (Candidates) Votes Pct Quotas
Liberal Party (7) 25,817 38.01 3.04
Australian Labor Party (7) 20,250 29.81 2.38
Tasmanian Greens (7) 8,156 12.01 0.96
Jacqui Lambie Network (3) 5,530 8.14 0.65
Ungrouped (2) 2,760 4.06 0.33
Shooters Fishers Farmers (1) 1,616 2.38 0.19
IND Lara Alexander (1) 1,518 2.23 0.18
Animal Justice Party (1) 994 1.46 0.12
IND Tim Walker (1) 571 0.84 0.07
IND Mark Brown (1) 436 0.64 0.05
IND Jack Davenport (1) 278 0.41 0.03

With Michael Ferguson elected with 1.45 quotas, the distribution of his surplus at Count 2 will help determine which of Simon Wood or Julie Sladden will win the third Liberal seat.

The table below has been grouped into candidates and parties with a chance of being elected, and other candidates and parties that will be excluded and distributed as preferences.

Rather than separate the Jacquie Lambie Network into candidate totals, I have included the party total as it is the party total competing with candidates from other groups. As long as there is not too much leakage from the Lambie ticket, then the group’s highest polling candidate Rebekah Pentland will be competing for the final seat.

Count 1 Candidate Totals
Candidate/Group Party Votes Pct Quotas
Candidates competing for election
*Michael Ferguson (Re-elected 1) LIB 12,294 18.10 1.45
*Michelle O’Byrne ALP 8,073 11.88 0.95
*Janie Finlay ALP 7,337 10.80 0.86
Rob Fairs LIB 5,727 8.43 0.67
Lambie Network (3 candidates) JLN 5,530 8.14 0.65
Cecily Rosol GRN 4,283 6.31 0.50
*Simon Wood LIB 1,949 2.87 0.23
Julie Sladden LIB 1,747 2.57 0.21
Candidates to be distributed as preferences
Other Liberals (3) LIB 4,100 6.04 0.48
Other Labor (5) ALP 4,840 7.13 0.57
Other Greens (6) GRN 3,873 5.70 0.46
Michal Frydrych SFF 1,616 2.38 0.19
Lara Alexander IND 1,518 2.23 0.18
Animal Justice AJP 994 1.46 0.12
Other Independents (5) IND 4,045 5.96 0.48

Leave a Reply