- Re-elected 1 – Sue Lines (Labor)
- Re-elected 2 – Michaelia Cash (Liberal)
- Re-elected 3 – Glenn Sterle (Labor)
- Re-elected 4 – Dean Smith (Liberal)
- Re-elected 5 – Dorinda Cox (Greens)
- Elected 6 – Fatima Payman (Labor)
- Defeated – Ben Small (Liberal) – see notes below
Party Outcome: Probably Liberal (-1), Labor (+1)
All votes have now been counted and allocated as first preferences to ticket votes or to individual candidates. A table of these votes is included min the post along with an analysis of the final distribution of preferences that elected Fatima Payman (Labor) to the final vacancy ahead of Paul Filing (One Nation).
In brief, Liberal preferences on the exclusion of the third Liberal candidate determined the outcome. On first preferences, Labor’s third candidate Fatima Payman was on 0.42 quotas to One Nation’s Paul Filing on 0.24. By the time only three candidates were left, the lead had narrowed with Payman on 0.72 and Filing on 0.61, 155,170 votes to 133,111 with the third Liberal Ben Small to be excluded with 99,327 votes. Small’s preferences split 31.0% to Payman, 29.6% to Filing and 39.4% exhausting. The final totals were Payman 185,992 or 0.8531 quotas to Filing 162,502 or 0.7454 quotas.
Commentary on Result
There were three Liberal, two Labor and one Green positions up for election in 2022. These were the positions allocated six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution election.
The result saw the Liberal Party lose its third seat to Labor. This result represented a significant shift in the Senate balance of power. Rather than the traditional 3-left to 3-right split of Senate positions, Western Australia elected only two right Senators and four from the left. It is the first time since the Senate was expanded in 1984 that Labor elected three Senators from Western Australia at a half-Senate election, and also the first where the Liberal Party elected only two.
Labor’s two sitting Senators, Sue Lines and Glenn Sterle, were re-elected. Labor’s surplus was also large enough to elect the party’s third candidate, Fatima Payman.
The Liberal Party had three positions facing election. Re-elected were Michaelia Cash and Dean Smith. Defeated was Ben Small, who had been appointed to replace the departing Mathias Cormann. Small’s path to becoming a defeated Senator was complex. He resigned from the Senate before nominations closed after it was discovered he had inherited New Zealand citizenship from his father, putting him in breach of Section 44 of the Constitution. Small had to renounce his New Zealand citizenship to nominate, also forcing his resignation as a Senator. On 18 May the WA Parliament re-appointed him to the casual vacancy his resignation had caused, meaning that Small was again an incumbent Senator on election day and therefore a defeated Senator.
The re-elected Green Senator is Dorinda Cox, who was appointed to replace Rachel Siewert in September 2021.
Enrolment – 1,773,969
Total Votes / Turnout – 1,571,899, 88.6% of enrolment
Informal Votes – 45,776 (2.9%)
Provisional Quota – 218,018
Below-the-line Vote – 4.8%
Last Update – Sunday, 19 June 2022, 08:52
|Party Name (Group)||Votes||Pct||Change||Quotas||% BTL|
|LINES, Sue (Re-elected 1)||11,913||0.78|
|STERLE, Glenn (Re-elected 3)||1,285||0.08|
|PAYMAN, Fatima (Elected 6)||1,681||0.11|
|CASH, Michaelia (Re-elected 2)||7,389||0.48|
|SMITH, Dean (Re-elected 4)||1,191||0.08|
|The Greens (A)||217,571||14.26||+2.44||0.9979||8.5|
|COX, Dorinda (Re-elected 5)||14,626||0.96|
|One Nation (G)||53,260||3.49||-2.39||0.2443||7.8|
|FILING, Paul Anthony||3,701||0.24|
|Legalise Cannabis (I)||51,568||3.38||+1.69||0.2365||5.3|
|JOHNSON, Nicola Julia||2,484||0.16|
|Australian Christians (B)||33,143||2.17||+0.51||0.1520||11.3|
|United Australia (C)||32,543||2.13||+0.38||0.1493||7.3|
|Liberal Democrats (L)||29,511||1.93||+1.21||0.1354||5.9|
|Western Australia Party (T)||26,555||1.74||+0.55||0.1218||6.8|
|Great Australian Party (J)||15,958||1.05||+0.82||0.0732||19.3|
|CULLETON, Rodney Norman||2,980||0.20|
|VINCI, Samantha Lee||93||0.01|
|Animal Justice (O)||14,186||0.93||-0.05||0.0651||6.5|
|McCASKER, Elizabeth Gay||88||0.01|
|Federation Party (Q)||8,339||0.55||+0.55||0.0382||17.1|
|Sustainable Australia (E)||5,827||0.38||+0.04||0.0267||11.1|
|Australian Democrats (F)||4,630||0.30||+0.30||0.0212||12.9|
|Informed Medical Options (M)||3,494||0.23||-0.03||0.0160||16.3|
|Socialist Alliance (H)||2,494||0.16||+0.04||0.0114||16.7|
|Australian Values Party (N)||2,305||0.15||+0.15||0.0106||12.8|
|Group K (K)||2,254||0.15||+0.15||0.0103||27.2|
|McDONALD, Peter Robert||193||0.01|
|Citizens Party (U)||1,789||0.12||+0.04||0.0082||11.8|
|Federal ICAC Now (V)||1,540||0.10||+0.10||0.0071||19.9|
|Group P (P)||993||0.07||+0.07||0.0046||25.9|
On first preferences the Greens were just short of a quota. It took until the exclusion of the low-polling Socialist Alliance at counts 173-177 for Greens senator Dorinda to reach a quota and fill the fifth seat. Being so close to the quota meant that the Greens played little role in the preference distribution required to fill the sixth vacancy.
The race for the final Senate seat was a contest between third Labor candidate Fatima Payman, who began the count on 0.4187 quotas, and a chasing pack led by One Nation’s Paul Filing on 0.2443 quotas, Nicola Johnson of Legalise Cannabis on 0.2365 quotas, and third Liberal candidate Ben Small on 0.2171 quotas. Payman led her eventual main challenger Paul Filing by 0.1744 quotas. Gaps of around 0.2 quotas have proved difficult to close on preferences under the Senate’s new electoral system.
The WA Senate distribution of preferences was the last conducted. Counts in other states had shown higher flows of preferences between One Nation, the Liberal Democrats and United Australia than had been evident at previous elections. As it was likely the more disciplined Liberal preferences could play a party, the counts in other states raised the prospect that Payman’s initial lead could be closed on preferences.
By Count 226, only nine groups remained in the race. The total votes, percentages and quotas are shown in the table below. The ‘Transfers’ column shows the preferences transferred to each party since the party totals at Count 1. The totals for Labor and Liberal exclude the votes set aside as quotas for elected candidates.
So far preferences had favoured Legalise Cannabis and Labor, allowing Nicola Johnson (Legalise Cannabis) to pass Paul Filing (One Nation). Payman’s quota lead over Filing increased to 0.1955 quotas. From this point of the count, United Australia, Australian Christian, Liberal Democrat and Great Australian Party preferences were likely to favour Filing over Payman, and it was likely that Liberal preferences would also be distributed. The question was whether Payman’s lead was enough to withstand likely hostile preference flows.
|PAYMAN, Fatima (ALP)||+9,069||100,352||6.58||0.4603|
|JOHNSON, Nicola (LCA)||+11,183||62,751||4.11||0.2878|
|FILING, Paul (ONP)||+5,067||58,327||3.82||0.2675|
|SMALL, Ben (LIB)||+3,411||50,739||3.32||0.2327|
|CRICHTON, Mike (AUC)||+2,470||35,613||2.33||0.1633|
|McDONALD, James (UAP)||+2,997||35,540||2.33||0.1630|
|McDOWALL, Matthew (WAP)||+8,461||35,016||2.29||0.1606|
|FANTINEL, Kate (LDP)||+2,887||32,398||2.12||0.1486|
|CULLETON, Rodney (GAP)||+5,951||21,909||1.44||0.1005|
|Exhausted/Loss by Fraction||+3,388||3,388||0.22||0.0155|
Counts 221-226 excluded Rod Culleton of the Great AustralianParty. His preferences flowed 29.0% to One Nation, 16.6% to United Australia and 16.9% to the Liberal Democrats. Filing remained third behind Legalise Cannabis but had narrowed Payman’s lead to 0.1670 quotas.
|PAYMAN, Fatima (ALP)||+739||101,091||6.62||0.4637|
|JOHNSON, Nicola (LCA)||+3,134||65,885||4.32||0.3022|
|FILING, Paul (ONP)||+6,364||64,691||4.24||0.2967|
|SMALL, Ben (LIB)||+501||51,240||3.36||0.2350|
|McDONALD, James (UAP)||+3,632||39,172||2.57||0.1797|
|McDOWALL, Matthew (WAP)||+2,053||37,069||2.43||0.1700|
|CRICHTON, Mike (AUC)||+885||36,498||2.39||0.1674|
|FANTINEL, Kate (LDP)||+3,694||36,092||2.36||0.1655|
|CULLETON, Rodney (GAP)||-21,909||0||0.00||0.0000|
|Exhausted/Loss by Fraction||+907||4,295||0.28||0.0197|
Counts 227-232 excluded Kate Fantinel (Liberal Democrats). Her preferences flowed 27.2% to Ben Small (Liberal), 17.6% to Filing, 15.3% to Payman and 10.1% to United Australia. These flows pushed Filing back into second place, but his lead over Payman only narrowed slightly to 0.1632 quotas.
|PAYMAN, Fatima (ALP)||+5,533||106,624||6.99||0.4891|
|FILING, Paul (ONP)||+6,363||71,054||4.66||0.3259|
|JOHNSON, Nicola (LCA)||+3,140||69,025||4.52||0.3166|
|SMALL, Ben (LIB)||+9,809||61,049||4.00||0.2800|
|McDONALD, James (UAP)||+3,653||42,825||2.81||0.1964|
|McDOWALL, Matthew (WAP)||+3,004||40,073||2.63||0.1838|
|CRICHTON, Mike (AUC)||+1,720||38,218||2.50||0.1753|
|FANTINEL, Kate (LDP)||-36,092||0||0.00||0.0000|
|Exhausted/Loss by Fraction||+2,870||7,165||0.47||0.0329|
Counts 233-238 excluded Mike Crichton (Australian Christians). His preferences flowed 29.4% to Liberal, 26.2% to Filing, 16.2% to Payman and 11.7% to United Australia. Liberal Ben Small moved into third place ahead of Legalise Cannabis. Payman’s lead over Filing slipped further to 0.1457 quotas.
|PAYMAN, Fatima (ALP)||+6,207||112,831||7.39||0.5175|
|FILING, Paul (ONP)||+10,010||81,064||5.31||0.3718|
|SMALL, Ben (LIB)||+11,217||72,266||4.74||0.3315|
|JOHNSON, Nicola (LCA)||+1,362||70,387||4.61||0.3228|
|McDONALD, James (UAP)||+4,476||47,301||3.10||0.2170|
|McDOWALL, Matthew (WAP)||+3,304||43,377||2.84||0.1990|
|CRICHTON, Mike (AUC)||-38,218||0||0.00||0.0000|
|Exhausted/Loss by Fraction||+1,642||8,807||0.58||0.0404|
Counts 239-244 excluded Matthew McDowall of the Western Australian Party. His preferences favoured the major parties, 25.4% to Liberal, 22.3% to Labor and only 13.2% to One Nation. Payman’s lead over Paul Filing widened slightly to 0.1640 quotas.
|PAYMAN, Fatima (ALP)||+9,693||122,524||8.03||0.5620|
|FILING, Paul (ONP)||+5,705||86,769||5.69||0.3980|
|SMALL, Ben (LIB)||+11,037||83,303||5.46||0.3821|
|JOHNSON, Nicola (LCA)||+7,075||77,462||5.08||0.3553|
|McDONALD, James (UAP)||+3,107||50,408||3.30||0.2312|
|McDOWALL, Matthew (WAP)||-43,377||0||0.00||0.0000|
|Exhausted/Loss by Fraction||+6,760||15,567||1.02||0.0714|
Counts 245-250 produced a major change to the count. The exclusion of James McDonald (United Australia) saw 55.3% of votes for him flow as preferences to One Nation and only 14.2% to Labor. This caused a dramatic reduction on Fatima Payman’s lead. She was now on 0.5949 quotas to Paul Filing’s 0.5258, a narrowed lead of just 0.0691 quotas.
|PAYMAN, Fatima (ALP)||+7,169||129,693||8.50||0.5949|
|FILING, Paul (ONP)||+27,860||114,629||7.51||0.5258|
|SMALL, Ben (LIB)||+4,699||88,002||5.77||0.4036|
|JOHNSON, Nicola (LCA)||+5,095||82,557||5.41||0.3787|
|McDONALD, James (UAP)||-50,408||0||0.00||0.0000|
|Exhausted/Loss by Fraction||+5,585||21,152||1.39||0.0970|
Counts 251-256 saw Nicola Johnson (Legalise Cannabis) excluded. 33.0% of her preferences exhausted, 30.9% flowed to Payman, 22.4% to One Nation and 13.7% to Liberal. Payman’s lead over Filing rose to 0.1011 quotas. With Liberal Ben Small with 0.4556 quotas worth of votes to be excluded next, his preferences still had the chance to push Paul Filing ahead of Fatima Payman and into the final Senate seat.
|PAYMAN, Fatima (ALP)||+25,477||155,170||10.17||0.7117|
|FILING, Paul (ONP)||+18,482||133,111||8.72||0.6106|
|SMALL, Ben (LIB)||+11,325||99,327||6.51||0.4556|
|JOHNSON, Nicola (LCA)||-82,557||0||0.00||0.0000|
|Exhausted/Loss by Fraction||+27,273||48,425||3.17||0.2221|
Counts 257-262 excluded Ben Small (Liberal) but preferences from his votes were of no help to Paul Filing. 39.4% exhausted without choosing between Labor and One Nation, 31.0% flowed to Payman and only 29.6% to Filing. With no more candidates remaining to be excluded, Payman was declared elected with less than a quota. 0.8531 quotas versus 0.7454 for Filing. The final margin of victory for Payman over Filing was 0.1077 quotas, 1.54% or 23,490 votes.
|PAYMAN, Fatima (ALP)||+30,822||185,992||12.19||0.8531|
|FILING, Paul (ONP)||+29,391||162,502||10.65||0.7454|
|SMALL, Ben (LIB)||-99,327||0||0.00||0.0000|
|Exhausted/Loss by Fraction||+39,114||87,539||5.74||0.4015|
Between Counts 220 and 262, seven candidates/parties were excluded and 273,966 votes distributed as preferences, 18% of all votes, 1.26 quotas worth. Of these, 31.3% reached Fatima Payman (Labor), 38.0% Paul Filing (One Nation) and 30.7% exhausted without choosing between the two.