2022 Victorian Senate Election

  • Re-elected 1 – Sarah Henderson (Liberal)
  • Elected 2 – Linda White (Labor)
  • Re-elected 3 – Bridget McKenzie (National)
  • Re-elected 4 – Jana Stewart (Labor)
  • Re-elected 5 – Lidia Thorpe (Greens)
  • Elected 6 – Ralph Babet (United Australia Party)
  • Defeated – Greg Mirabella (Liberal)

Party Outcome: Coalition (-1), United Australia Party (+1).

A table of final first preferences is included inside this post along with an analysis of the distribution of preferences sheets.

Commentary on Result

There were three Coalition, two Labor and one Green positions facing election in 2022. These were the positions allocated six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution election.

Such is the turnover of sitting Senators since 2016 that Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie is the only Senator elected in 2016 who will be re-elected in 2022.

On the Coalition ticket, Liberal Sarah Henderson has been re-elected along with McKenzie. Henderson was a former member for Corangamite and was appointed to the Senate in September 2019 after the appointment of Mitch Fifield as Australia’s representative to the United Nations.

Greg Mirabella has been defeated from number three on the Coalition ticket. Mirabella was appointed in December 2021 in place of retiring Senate President Scott Ryan. Mirabella led United Australia Party candidate Ralph Babet early in the count but slipped behind as the count finalised. Babet’s lead was maintained by good flows of preferences from like-minded small right-of-centre parties.

Labor retains its two seats with two candidates who have not previously faced election. Lead candidate Linda White is elected in place of the retiring Kim Carr. Jana Stewart is re-elected to the second seat to which she was recently appointed in place of the late Kimberley Kitching.

Green Senator Lidia Thorpe is easily re-elected. She was appointed in September 2020 to replace retiring former party leader Richard Di Natale.

An analysis of the preferences is set out below the Results table.

Results Table

Enrolment – 4,344,208
Total Votes / Turnout – 3,960,958, 91.2% of enrolment
Informal Votes – 139,419 (3.5%)
Provisional Quota – 545,935
Below-the-line Vote – 5.2%
Last Update – Sunday, 19 June 2022, 08:52

Party Name (Group) Votes Pct Change Quotas % BTL
Liberal/The Nationals (D) 1,233,930 32.29 -3.61 2.2602 2.8
Ticket votes 1,199,425 31.39
HENDERSON, Sarah (Re-elected 1) 24,973 0.65
McKENZIE, Bridget (Re-elected 3) 4,094 0.11
MIRABELLA, Greg Defeated 2,127 0.06
KMETJ, Chrestyna 550 0.01
HARRINGTON, Mick 893 0.02
BURGESS, David 1,868 0.05
Labor (K) 1,201,830 31.45 +0.33 2.2014 3.4
Ticket votes 1,160,465 30.37
WHITE, Linda (Elected 2) 30,674 0.80
STEWART, Jana (Re-elected 4) 3,115 0.08
NUNN, Casey 1,871 0.05
BRIDGER-DARLING, Megan 1,803 0.05
McFARLANE, Josh 3,902 0.10
The Greens (U) 529,429 13.85 +3.23 0.9698 8.5
Ticket votes 484,561 12.68
THORPE, Lidia (Re-elected 5) 40,174 1.05
FROGLEY, Adam 2,272 0.06
AUSTIN, Sissy 1,235 0.03
PAYNE, Zeb 1,187 0.03
United Australia (L) 153,231 4.01 +1.53 0.2807 3.9
Ticket votes 147,330 3.86
BABET, Ralph Elected 6 4,425 0.12
MORAN, Kelly 1,133 0.03
GRIMMOND, Kenneth 343 0.01
Legalise Cannabis (E) 114,805 3.00 +1.50 0.2103 5.6
Ticket votes 108,383 2.84
SMITH, Elissa 5,816 0.15
TAYLOR, Wayne 606 0.02
One Nation (P) 111,176 2.91 +0.05 0.2036 6.9
Ticket votes 103,506 2.71
PICKERING, Warren 7,300 0.19
HUXHAM, Stuart 370 0.01
Liberal Democrats (W) 92,295 2.42 +1.46 0.1691 9.1
Ticket votes 83,940 2.20
LIMBRICK, David 7,730 0.20
MITCHELL, Krystle 418 0.01
WHITE, Caroline 207 0.01
Animal Justice (I) 57,836 1.51 -0.02 0.1059 5.5
Ticket votes 54,640 1.43
CURRIE, Bronwyn 2,863 0.07
DELFORCE, Chris 333 0.01
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party (H) 54,366 1.42 -1.40 0.0996 7.7
Ticket votes 50,187 1.31
HINCH, Derryn 4,107 0.11
STANFIELD, Ruth 72 0.00
Shooters Fishers Farmers (O) 49,750 1.30 -0.55 0.0911 6.2
Ticket votes 46,675 1.22
CONSTANTINOU, Ethan 2,642 0.07
BOURMAN, Nicole 433 0.01
Reason Australia (A) 37,402 0.98 +0.98 0.0685 19.4
Ticket votes 30,157 0.79
VEGA, Yolanda 6,690 0.18
MILLWARD, Harry 555 0.01
Australian Democrats (C) 28,693 0.75 +0.49 0.0526 12.0
Ticket votes 25,246 0.66
GREEN, Leonie 3,182 0.08
JAGOE, Stephen Peter 265 0.01
Victorian Socialists (Z) 21,739 0.57 +0.57 0.0398 12.8
Ticket votes 18,950 0.50
MYLVAGANAM, Aran 2,391 0.06
RICCARDI, Laura 398 0.01
Sustainable Australia (F) 17,594 0.46 +0.08 0.0322 9.3
Ticket votes 15,965 0.42
WEARNE, Madeleine 1,434 0.04
LONG, Robert 195 0.01
Group R (R) 15,057 0.39 +0.39 0.0276 23.8
Ticket votes 11,467 0.30
JONAS, Morgan C 2,519 0.07
SMIT, Monica 1,071 0.03
FUSION (S) 13,920 0.36 -0.15 0.0255 12.0
Ticket votes 12,251 0.32
CORDNER HUNT, Kammy 1,372 0.04
FARRANT, Tahlia 297 0.01
Great Australian Party (V) 13,648 0.36 +0.22 0.0250 9.7
Ticket votes 12,320 0.32
O’BRYAN, Darryl 1,214 0.03
WHITEHEAD, Geoff 114 0.00
Federation Party (N) 12,357 0.32 +0.32 0.0226 15.1
Ticket votes 10,487 0.27
HUGHES, Vern 1,288 0.03
KIM, Karen 198 0.01
LACEY, Cheryl 104 0.00
MARA, Chris 74 0.00
SEWAK, Neerja 56 0.00
O’CONNELL, Mark 150 0.00
Group B (B) 12,161 0.32 +0.32 0.0223 26.9
Ticket votes 8,885 0.23
RICHARDSON, Damien 3,099 0.08
McBRIDE, John 177 0.00
Australian Values Party (G) 11,809 0.31 +0.31 0.0216 9.2
Ticket votes 10,723 0.28
BURSON, Chris 943 0.02
ASSER, Samantha 143 0.00
Ungrouped (UNG) 8,252 0.22 +0.22 0.0151 100.0
FLOYD, Glenn 1,362 0.04
RIDGEWAY, Allen 78 0.00
BOND, James 537 0.01
SMITH, Neal 321 0.01
DICKS, Max 2,593 0.07
ATKINSON, Bernardine 432 0.01
ROSS, Paul 328 0.01
DE FRANCESCO, Nat 216 0.01
TOSCANO, Joseph 706 0.02
TRAN, Tara 631 0.02
DILLON, David John 129 0.00
GONSALVEZ, Geraldine 919 0.02
Informed Medical Options (X) 8,134 0.21 +0.21 0.0149 15.5
Ticket votes 6,875 0.18
CLONARIDIS, Nick 1,086 0.03
CURNOW, Robyn 173 0.00
Socialist Alliance (M) 6,841 0.18 +0.18 0.0125 13.1
Ticket votes 5,947 0.16
DANCE, Felix 660 0.02
CARR, Angela 234 0.01
Citizens Party (Q) 5,307 0.14 +0.05 0.0097 9.7
Ticket votes 4,791 0.13
BARWICK, Robbie 458 0.01
ISHERWOOD, Craig 58 0.00
Australian Progressives (J) 5,206 0.14 +0.14 0.0095 10.4
Ticket votes 4,667 0.12
PITT, Antoinette 448 0.01
KNIGHT, David 91 0.00
Group T (T) 3,768 0.10 +0.10 0.0069 41.5
Ticket votes 2,206 0.06
BENEDYKA, Susan 1,502 0.04
RICHARDS, Christine 60 0.00
Group Y (Y) 1,003 0.03 +0.03 0.0018 13.7
Ticket votes 866 0.02
BYRNE, Peter 112 0.00
WARDLE, Jason 25 0.00
…. (DLP) 0 -2.53
…. (Others) 0 -4.46

The race for the sixth seat in Victoria began with five parties between 0.2036 and 0.2807 quotas. Which of the parties would win the sixth seat would be determined by preferences.

But first the fifth seat had to be filled. The Greens began the count with 0.97 quotas and eventually reached a quota at Count 293 after flows of preferences from Fusion and Sustainable Australia voters.

By count 324, only eight candidates remained in the race. Ralph Babet (UAP) was still slightly ahead of Greg Mirabella (LIB), though neither candidate had done well on preferences. Casey Nunn (ALP) and Elissa Smith (Legalise Cannabis) had both attracted more preferences. The table below shows the totals at Count 324, and the changes in party totals since count 1, comparing the one remaining candidate with the initial party total. The Labor and Coalition totals have been adjusted to set aside elect candidate quotas.

Victoria Senate Count – After Count 324
Candidate (Party) Transfers Votes Pct Quotas
BABET, Ralph (UAP) +20,606 173,837 4.55 0.3184
MIRABELLA, Greg (LIB) +28,524 170,584 4.46 0.3125
NUNN, Casey (ALP) +42,644 152,604 3.99 0.2795
SMITH, Elissa (LCA) +35,587 150,392 3.94 0.2755
PICKERING, Warren (ONP) +32,937 144,113 3.77 0.2640
LIMBRICK, David (LDP) +22,028 114,323 2.99 0.2094
CURRIE, Bronwyn (AJP) +32,794 90,630 2.37 0.1660
HINCH, Derryn (DHJP) +20,500 74,866 1.96 0.1371
Exhausted/Loss by fraction +20,515 20,515 0.54 0.0376

Counts 325-330 excluded Derry Hinch, preferences from his voters generally favouring Labor , Animal Justice and the Liberal Party, helping put Greg Mirabella back at the top of the list.

Victoria Senate Count – After Count 330
Candidate (Party) Transfers Votes Pct Quotas
MIRABELLA, Greg (LIB) +11,308 181,892 4.76 0.3332
BABET, Ralph (UAP) +6,282 180,119 4.71 0.3299
NUNN, Casey (ALP) +16,773 169,377 4.43 0.3103
SMITH, Elissa (LCA) +7,982 158,374 4.14 0.2901
PICKERING, Warren (ONP) +10,533 154,646 4.05 0.2833
LIMBRICK, David (LDP) +3,104 117,427 3.07 0.2151
CURRIE, Bronwyn (AJP) +13,796 104,426 2.73 0.1913
HINCH, Derryn (DHJP) -74,866 0 0.00 0.0000
Exhausted/Loss by fraction +5,088 25,603 0.67 0.0469

Counts 331-336 excluded Animal Justice’s Bronwyn Currie, and 33.1% of voters preferenced Labor at this point and 26.2% Legalise Cannabis. This boost pushed Labor’s Casey Nunn ahead of Liberal Greg Mirabella.

Victoria Senate Count – After Count 336
Candidate (Party) Transfers Votes Pct Quotas
NUNN, Casey (ALP) +34,535 203,912 5.34 0.3735
MIRABELLA, Greg (LIB) +8,209 190,101 4.97 0.3482
BABET, Ralph (UAP) +8,037 188,156 4.92 0.3446
SMITH, Elissa (LCA) +27,310 185,684 4.86 0.3401
PICKERING, Warren (ONP) +8,313 162,959 4.26 0.2985
LIMBRICK, David (LDP) +3,320 120,747 3.16 0.2212
CURRIE, Bronwyn (AJP) -104,426 0 0.00 0.0000
Exhausted/Loss by fraction +14,702 40,305 1.05 0.0738

Next out was David Limbrick of the Liberal Democrats. Preferences from his votes flowed 28.1% to One Nation, 23.1% to United Australia, 21.7% to Liberal and only 10.9% to Labor and 5.4% to Legalise Cannabis. The totals at the end of Count 342 are shown in the table below.

Only five candidates and parties remain in the race for the final seat. These were the same five candidates that lay between 0.2036 and 0.2807 at the start of the count, and were now clustered even closer together between 0.3520 quotas and 0.3977 quotas.

Victoria Senate Count – After Count 342
Candidate (Party) Transfers Votes Pct Quotas
NUNN, Casey (ALP) +13,212 217,124 5.68 0.3977
MIRABELLA, Greg (LIB) +26,220 216,321 5.66 0.3962
BABET, Ralph (UAP) +27,911 216,067 5.65 0.3958
PICKERING, Warren (ONP) +33,873 196,832 5.15 0.3605
SMITH, Elissa (LCA) +6,486 192,170 5.03 0.3520
LIMBRICK, David (LDP) -120,747 0 0.00 0.0000
Exhausted/Loss by fraction +13,045 53,350 1.40 0.0977

Counts 343-348 excluded Elissa Smith (Legalise Cannabis). 31.6% of her votes had next preference for Labor, 29.4% exhausted their preferences at this point, and the other three parties received between 12.0% and 14.8%. As the totals at Count 348 below show, Labor now had 0.5089 quotas, Liberal Greg Mirabella on 0.4485 quotas, UAP’s Ralph Babet 0.4379 and One Nation’s Warren Pickering last on 0.4036 quotas.

Victoria Senate Count – After Count 348
Candidate (Party) Transfers Votes Pct Quotas
NUNN, Casey (ALP) +60,701 277,825 7.27 0.5089
MIRABELLA, Greg (LIB) +28,506 244,827 6.41 0.4485
BABET, Ralph (UAP) +22,978 239,045 6.26 0.4379
PICKERING, Warren (ONP) +23,532 220,364 5.77 0.4036
SMITH, Elissa (LCA) -192,170 0 0.00 0.0000
Exhausted/Loss by fraction +56,453 109,803 2.87 0.2011

The exclusion of One Nation’s Warren Pickering at Counts 349-354 was the critical exclusion that determined who won the final seat. Of Pickering’s 220,364 votes, 50.2% now flowed to Babet (UAP), 25.4% exhausted, 13.9% flowed to Mirabella (LIB) and 10.4% to Nunn (ALP). This pushed Babet into the lead, Mirabella to third and set to be the next candidate excluded. Labor’s Nunn now needed to win more of Mirabella’s preferences than Babet to win the final seat.

Victoria Senate Count – After Count 354
Candidate (Party) Transfers Votes Pct Quotas
BABET, Ralph (UAP) +110,764 349,809 9.15 0.6408
NUNN, Casey (ALP) +22,973 300,798 7.87 0.5510
MIRABELLA, Greg (LIB) +30,682 275,509 7.21 0.5047
PICKERING, Warren (ONP) -220,364 0 0.00 0.0000
Exhausted/Loss by fraction +55,945 165,748 4.34 0.3036

Mirabella’s distributed votes flowed as preferences 39.4% to Babet, 26.7% to Nunn and 35.0% exhausted. With no more candidates to excluded and only two candidates in the race for one seat, United Australia’s Babet was declared elected to the sixth seat with 0.8344 quotas ahead of Labor’s Nunn on 0.6855.

Babet’s victory was due to the strong flows of preferences he received on the exclusion of One Nation. This put Babet ahead of both Nunn and Mirabella, resulting in Mirabella being excluded. With Babet ahead of Labor at that point, the only way Babet could not win would be if Mirabella’s preferences had flowed to Labor. That was always unlikely given the Coalition’s how-to-vote recommended a second preference for United Australia.

At the start of the count, with the Greens close to one quota, there were few other parties on the ballot paper that could deliver strong preference flows to Labor. With a Liberal surplus and several other right-of-centre parties having their preferences distributed, it was always likely that either Mirabella or Babet would win the sixth seat. As the count unfolded, it was the strong One Nation flows to Babet that resulted in him rather than Mirabella being elected.

Victoria Senate Count – After Count 360
Candidate (Party) Transfers Votes Pct Quotas
BABET, Ralph (UAP) +105,719 455,528 11.92 0.8344
NUNN, Casey (ALP) +73,436 374,234 9.79 0.6855
MIRABELLA, Greg (LIB) -275,509 0 0.00 0.0000
Exhausted/Loss by fraction +96,354 262,102 6.86 0.4801

8 thoughts on “2022 Victorian Senate Election”

  1. Are you going to call the final senate for the liberals with 84.9% of vote counted in Victoria

    COMMENT: The lower house turnout is currently at 88.30% and will go slightly higher. There will be very little change in the first preference percentages from here. I hope to do an analysis of preferences in the Vic Senate race in the next two days. I think the third Coalition candidate is the clear favourite.

  2. The 2019 breakdown is fascinating. It stands out that voters for the Sustainability, Health and Republican parties are in large part voting on the name that suggests the first two are left wing (left wing issues) and the Republicans are right wing (think USA) whereas they don’t really sit that way. Sustainability preferences went green… But it’s anti immigration. Health went Green/Labor… But it’s anti science. Republican went UAP/LNP… But it’s about an Australian Republic!

  3. Informal Votes – 146,418 (3.7%) shown in the 2022 poll , it that figure higher than usual ? Seems a heck of a lot of wasted votes!

    ANSWER: It is down 0.34% on informal voting in 2019.

  4. So, is the UAP likely at all to win a Senate seat? Or is the final result ultimately between Labor and Liberal due to preferences?

    COMMENT: The UAP leads the third Liberal candidate but I would expect the Liberals to do better than the UAP on preferences. We will see what happens when the preference button is pushed. All of the partial quotas in the race for the final seat start on less than a quarter of a quota.

  5. Hi Antony!

    I’ve read several articles claiming Liberal/The Nationals preferences could help elect United Australia to the final seat. My understanding of single transferable votes and the current first preferences count leads me to believe this is very unlikely. I’m aware you’ve essentially provided the answer in your post, but would you be able to resolve this dispute here?

    Thank you so much for your informative analyses!

    COMMENT: Liberal/National preferences can only help elect a UAP candidate if the UAP stay ahead during the distribution of preferences. I’m not convinced the UAP can maintain their lead over the Coalition ticket.

  6. Thank you for data, Antony. but where are final quota figures, and preference flows of surplus quotas and under-quotas? PS you can’t possibly ‘retire’ – half of what is left of the ABC’s reputation rests on your shoulders (the other half on Laura Tingle). kindest.

    COMMENT: The information on the distribution of preferences is not yet available. Three Senators retired/resigned in the last term. Using ‘retiring’ rather than ‘resigning’ makes more sense given the structure of the sentences.

  7. Dear Antony.
    Two questions.
    1. pardon my ignorance, but how do we go from two candidates, each w/o a quota, to a ‘winner’?
    2. can we have a % col for the transfers? in fact, a percent col actually replace the raw + distrib numbers

    btw, pref distrib and flows is fascinating, isn’t it? you can see how just a small change in the data makes a, what’s the word, binary change in the result.

    COMMENT: I’ve done up the tables and published them ahead of adding some commentary. The only way I could save the post without publishing the tables was to unpublish the post. On your first question, if at the end of the count no candidate has a quota, the candidate with the highest vote is declared the winner.

  8. I’m quite surprised how many of the votes exhaust, considering the two majors were in the final three candidates. With the margin at final count of 85k (or 25k at the last exclusion), having 260k voters not having their preferences captured doesn’t seem ideal. I wonder if it is worth the ALP, for example, reaching out to minor party voters, recognising their preference but ensuring that Labor is in their preferences. Also, it seems many people think 6 boxes is the min AND max and they can’t keep numbering beyond this. Maybe more education on this?

    COMMENT: I don’t see it would have made much difference. One third of the exhausted preferences were from Coalition voters at the last exclusion who hadn’t made a choice between Labor and the UAP. To have had any impact on the result all of the Coalition preferences would have had to flow to Labor and they weren’t going to do that. With the Greens right on one quota, Labor was always going to struggle to win a third seat as there were not many helpful preferences floating around. I think the rate of exhausted preferences is perfectly acceptable.

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