This post has the final national Senate vote totals table that fixes a few issues with the AEC’s Senate totals. The main difference is the table below accumulates the Coalition into a single national total.
I’ve combined the Coalition parties into a single total as it is the only sensible way to do a national comparison. The alternative would be a Liberal/National total covering only NSW and Victoria, a Liberal total for ACT, SA, WA and Tasmania, LNP for Queensland and CLP for Northern Territory. There is even less justification for separating the Coalition parties in the Senate than there is for the House.
I’ve provided some commentary on the Senate result below the table.
p.s. – I can’t help but notice that Legalise Cannabis Australia polled almost the same as the United Australia Party despite a substantially smaller advertising budget.
|Shooters Fishers Farmers||147,737||0.98||-0.35|
|Great Australian Party||82,237||0.55||+0.31|
|Indigenous – Aboriginal Party||71,811||0.48||+0.48|
|Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party||54,366||0.36||-0.36|
|Informed Medical Options||48,830||0.32||+0.21|
|Australian Values Party||41,351||0.27||+0.27|
|Jacqui Lambie Network||31,203||0.21||-0.01|
|Western Australia Party||26,555||0.18||+0.06|
|Rex Patrick Team||23,425||0.16||+0.16|
|Federal ICAC Now||18,508||0.12||+0.12|
|Seniors United Party||12,790||0.09||+0.04|
|Kim for Canberra||12,622||0.08||+0.08|
|Total Votes / Turnout||15,572,661||90.39|
The notes below will be updated after the final seats are determined on Monday. It appears Labor is still favourite to win the final seat in Western Australia but the last seat in Victoria is genuinely in doubt.
Commentary on Result
The overall Senate result sees a significant shift away from the Coalition. The change in party representation will give the new Labor government a Senate through which it can negotiate the passage of legislation.
Labor has 26 seats, unchanged from the last parliament. Labor has lost a seat to the Greens in New South Wales but gained a seat from the Liberal Party in Western Australia.
The Greens have 12 seats, a gain of three. The Greens have gained one seat from Labor in New South Wales, one at the expense of the LNP in Queensland, and another through the defeat of former Nick Xenophon Team representatives in South Australia.
Labor plus the Greens have 38 seats, enough to block hostile Senate motions, but not enough to pass legislation.
To pass Legislation Labor will need the support of the Greens and one crossbench Senator. There may be occasions where Labor will be supported by the Coalition, or at least by the Liberal Party.
This is where the victory of ACT Independent David Pocock could be critical, taking a seat from the Liberal Party and breaking the major parties’ monopoly on ACT Senate seats. Campaigning on many of the issues backed by ‘teal’ independents in the lower house, Pocock could on some issues be the critical 39th seat Labor needs to pass legislation.
Others on the cross bench are two Jacqui Lambie Network Senators from Tasmania, with Jacqui Lambie joined after the 2022 election by a former member of her staff, Tammy Tyrrell.
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation should continue with two Senators, though the party has lost support in Queensland and Pauline Hanson will fall well short of a quota in her own right. Hanson is favoured to win despite still being in a tight contest with the LNP’s Amanda Stoker.
The South Australian Senate race has seen the demise of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance with both Rex Patrick and Stirling Griff defeated, the Greens winning one seat and the Liberals the other.
Coalition representation will be reduced from 36 seats to 32 seats, though that will increase to 33 if the third Liberal holds on to win the final seat in Victoria. The Coalition has lost four seats, one each to Labor in Western Australia, to the Jacqui Lambie Network in Tasmania, to David Pocock in the ACT and to the Greens in Queensland. The Liberal Party gains a seat in South Australia at the expense of the former Nick Xenophon Team and hopes to retain its third seat in Victoria.