2022 SA Election – Pre-Poll and Postal Voting Rates

The final figures for pre-poll and postal votes were as follows –

• 29.9% of enrolled voters have either applied for a postal vote or cast a pre-poll vote.
• 208,136 pre-poll votes have been cast representing 16.4% of enrolment. This is a 75% increase on the 120,468 pre-polls taken in 2018 representing 10.0% of enrolment. There were 35,820 on the final Friday of pre-polling.
• There were 170,081 postal vote applications including around 25,000 permanent postal voters. This is twice the 82,213 applications in 2018 (not including 20,00 permanent postal votes) representing 6.8% of enrolment. Voters in Covid isolation can collect a postal vote pack from Covid testing centres which may add a few thousand extra postal votes.

Unlike every other Australian jurisdiction, Pre-Poll and Postal votes cannot be counted on election night in South Australia. The higher the rate of pre-poll and postal voting, the fewer the votes available for counting on election night and the lower the likelihood we will know the winners on election night.

In this post I explain the rate of pre-poll and postal voting at previous South Australian elections. I also provide charts of the rate of pre-poll voting by day, and the rate of postal and pre-poll voting by electoral district.

Most urban electorates should record a 50-60% vote count on election night which should be enough to call most seats. The seat with the lowest on the day vote will include Finniss (35%), Mount Gambier (45%), and Hartley, Colton, Stuart and Hammond under 50%.

Pre-Poll Votes Taken by Day at the 2022 Election

The two charts below will track pre-poll voting up to election day. The first chart shows the total pre-poll votes taken each day. The second shows the cumulative pre-polls by day as a percentage of enrolled votes against the percentage of pre-polls taken in 2018.

Early Voting by Electoral District

The chart below shows the total of postal applications and pre-polls as a percentage of enrolment by district, as well as separate entries for both postals and pre-polls. You can sort the table by any of the four columns in the table.

Postal and Pre-Poll Voting at the 2018 Election

At the 2018 election. 82,213 applications for postal votes were received, representing 6.8% of all voters. Of these, 7,756 were rejected leaving 74,457 applications accepted with postal vote packs being dispatched. In addition, postal vote packs were sent to 20,374 electors on the permanent postal register, meaning 94,831 postal vote packs were sent in total.

A total of 80,939 postals were returned, representing an 85.4% return rate. Of these 6,958 were rejected, leaving 73,981 postal votes admitted to the count, a lower 78.0% return rate compared to dispatched postals. Postals admitted to the count represented 6.8% of all votes or 6.2% of enrolment.

There were 120,468 Pre-poll votes taken in South Australia at the 2018 election, representing 10.0% of enrolment. This was a 50% increase compared to the 2014 election when only 80,087 in-state pre-polls were taken.

Declaration Voting at South Australian Elections Since 1989

South Australia is the only state where the Electoral Commission does not break down election results by vote type. The Commission provides totals for Ordinary or in-district polling day votes, and a total for Declaration Votes. Declaration votes include Postal votes, Pre-Poll votes (including Declared Institutions and Remotes) and Absent votes (out of district polling day votes).

Using these two categories, the table below shows the proportion of Ordinary versus Declaration votes at elections since 1989. These percentages are calculated as a percentage of total votes. The percentages also include only Declaration votes admitted to the count, not Declaration votes returned. The previous tables in this post used returned Declarations and calculated percentages against the number of enrolled voters to allow a comparison of percentages between return rates at previous elections and postals and pre-poll rates in the 2022 campaign.

The next table uses Declaration votes admitted to the count, not the number cast and returned. The chart highlights that the increase in Declaration votes at recent elections has been driven by the increase in Pre-poll voting. This is the same trend seen across the country. Other states have converted Pre-poll votes to ordinary votes, that is votes without a declaration envelope. This has allowed Pre-poll votes to be counted on election night. This change to pre-poll voting was in a bill to amend the Electoral Act that did not pass before the election.

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Previous Updates

The summary statistics with one day of pre-polling to go - Thursday 17 March

• 26.4% of voters have either applied for a postal vote or cast a pre-poll vote.
• 172,316 pre-poll votes have been cast representing 13.6% of enrolment. This has now surpassed the 120,468 pre-polls taken in 2018 representing 10.0% of enrolment. There were 36,763 pre-polls taken on Thursday.
• 162,467 postal vote applications have been received representing 12.8% of enrolled voters. This compares to 82,213 applications in 2018 representing 6.8% of enrolment. Postal vote applications have now closed though those in isolation can still obtain a postal vote pack from Covid testing centres.
• Going on other elections, the number of pre-poll votes will surge on the last two days of pre-polling. Note that not all postal votes will be returned or be admitted to the count.

The summary statistics after 8 days of pre-polling - Wednesday 16 March

• 23.5% of voters have either applied for a postal vote or cast a pre-poll vote.
• 135,417 pre-poll votes have been cast representing 10.7% of enrolment. This has nor surpassed the 120,468 pre-polls taken in 20187 representing 10.0% of enrolment. There were 24,774 pre-polls taken on Wednesday.
• 162,467 postal vote applications have been received representing 12.8% of enrolled voters. This compares to 82,213 applications in 2018 representing 6.8% of enrolment. Postal vote applications have now closed though though is isolation can still obtain a postal vote pack from Covid testing centres.
• Going on other elections, the number of pre-poll votes will surge on the last two days of pre-polling. Note that not all postal votes will be returned or be admitted to the count.

The summary statistics after 7 days of pre-polling - Tuesday 15 March

• 20.9% of voters have either applied for a postal vote or cast a pre-poll vote.
• 110,643 pre-poll votes have been cast representing 8.7% of enrolment. In 2018 there were a total of 120,468 pre-polls taken representing 10.0% of enrolment. There were 23,915 pre-polls taken on Tuesday.
• 154,341 postal vote applications have been received representing 12.2% of enrolled voters. This compares to 82,213 applications in 2018 representing 6.8% of enrolment. With no postal deliveries on a weekend, this number is unchanged compared to Friday.
• Wednesday 16 March is the last day postal vote applications can be processed. There will likely be a surge of pre-poll votes in the last three days before polling day. Note that not all postal votes will be returned or be admitted to the count.

The summary statistics after 6 days of pre-polling - Saturday 12 March

• 18.7% of voters have either applied for a postal vote or cast a pre-poll vote.
• 86,615 pre-poll votes have been cast representing 6.8% of enrolment. In 2018 there were a total of 120,468 pre-polls taken representing 10.0% of enrolment. There were 10,696 pre-polls taken on Saturday, the lowest number to date.
• 149,670 postal vote applications have been received representing 11.8% of enrolled voters. This compares to 82,213 applications in 2018 representing 6.8% of enrolment. With no postal deliveries on a weekend, this number is unchanged compared to Friday.
• 811 postal votes have been returned.
• The increase in numbers from here will mostly be for pre-poll votes rather than postals. Note that not all postal votes will be returned or be admitted to the count.

Summary statistics after 5 days of pre-polling - Friday 11 March

• 17.8% of voters have either applied for a postal vote or cast a pre-poll vote.
• 75,919 pre-poll votes have been cast representing 6.0% of enrolment. In 2018 there were a total of 120,468 pre-polls taken representing 10.0% of enrolment.
• 149,670 postal vote applications have been received representing 11.8% of enrolled voters. This compares to 82,213 applications in 2018 representing 6.8% of enrolment.
• 811 postal votes have been returned.
• The increase in numbers from here will mostly be for pre-poll votes rather than postals. Note that not all postal votes will be returned or be admitted to the count.

Summary statistics after 4 days of pre-polling - Thursday 10 March

• 15.7% of voters have either applied for a postal vote or cast a pre-poll vote.
• 59,805 pre-poll votes have been cast representing 4.7% of enrolment. In 2018 there were a total of 120,468 pre-polls taken representing 10.0% of enrolment.
• 139,483 postal vote applications have been received representing 11.0% of enrolled voters. This compares to 82,213 applications in 2018 representing 6.8% of enrolment.
• The increase in numbers from here will mostly be for pre-poll votes rather than postals. Note that not all postal votes will be returned or be admitted to the count.