- Re-elected 1 – James McGrath (LNP)
- Re-elected 2 – Murray Watt (Labor)
- Re-elected 3 – Matt Canavan (LNP)
- Elected 4 – Penny Allman-Payne (Greens)
- Re-elected 5 – Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
- Re-elected 6 – Anthony Chisholm (Labor)
- Defeated – Amanda Stoker (LNP)
Party Summary: Greens (+1), LNP (-1).
A full table of first preference votes is included in the post as well as an analysis of the preference flows.
The critical point in the count was the exclusion of Clive Palmer (UAP). More than half of his preferences flowed to Pauline Hanson (ONP), allowing Hanson to open a wide lead over Amanda Stoker (LNP) in the contest for the third conservative seat.
Commentary on Result
Liberal James McGrath and National Matt Canavan are re-elected from the LNP ticket, with Labor’s sitting Senators Murray Watt and Anthony Chisholm also re-elected. Preferences were required to fill Chisholm’s quota, and he was elected despite being passed by Pauline Hanson on UAP preferences.
The Greens have gained a seat with the election of Penny Allman-Payne, needing some preferences but far enough ahead of other contestants to be elected to the fourth seat. The Green victory took a seat from the right and restored the traditional Queensland half-Senate split of 3-right and 3-left Senators.
The final vacancy was a race between two sitting senators. The LNP’s third candidate Amanda Stoker and One Nation’s Pauline Hanson both began the count with around half a quota of votes. Hanson was the victor thanks to strong flows of preferences on the exclusion of Clive Palmer (United Australia). Hanson received enough preferences to win the fifth seat with Anthony Chisholm (Labor) winning the sixth.
Result Table
Enrolment – 3,503,609
Total Votes / Turnout – 3,111,034, 88.8% of enrolment
Informal Votes – 97,166 (3.1%)
Provisional Quota – 430,553
Below-the-line Vote – 7.0%
Last Update – Friday, 17 June 2022, 10:30
| Party Name (Group) | Votes | Pct | Change | Quotas | % BTL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal National Party (S) | 1,061,638 | 35.23 | -3.68 | 2.4658 | 4.6 |
| Ticket votes | 1,013,227 | 33.62 | |||
| McGRATH, James (Re-elected 1) | 21,411 | 0.71 | |||
| CANAVAN, Matt (Re-elected 3) | 11,822 | 0.39 | |||
| STOKER, Amanda (Defeated) | 11,981 | 0.40 | |||
| TOBIN, Nicole | 636 | 0.02 | |||
| CRIPPS, Andrew | 794 | 0.03 | |||
| WARD, Fiona | 1,767 | 0.06 | |||
| Labor (Y) | 744,212 | 24.69 | +2.13 | 1.7285 | 4.2 |
| Ticket votes | 713,051 | 23.66 | |||
| WATT, Murray (Re-elected 2) | 21,847 | 0.72 | |||
| CHISHOLM, Anthony (Re-elected 6) | 2,183 | 0.07 | |||
| ANDREW, Edwina | 2,405 | 0.08 | |||
| WARRY, Christina | 1,724 | 0.06 | |||
| HENDERSON, Jen | 1,779 | 0.06 | |||
| PASCOE, Richard | 1,223 | 0.04 | |||
| The Greens (J) | 373,460 | 12.39 | +2.45 | 0.8674 | 7.5 |
| Ticket votes | 345,470 | 11.46 | |||
| ALLMAN-PAYNE, Penny (Elected 4) | 21,671 | 0.72 | |||
| SRI, Anna | 1,718 | 0.06 | |||
| PENNINGS, Ben | 1,002 | 0.03 | |||
| SIDHU, Navdeep Singh | 970 | 0.03 | |||
| NELLIGAN, Alyce | 657 | 0.02 | |||
| HALEY, Rebecca | 1,972 | 0.07 | |||
| One Nation (X) | 222,925 | 7.40 | -2.87 | 0.5178 | 14.3 |
| Ticket votes | 191,156 | 6.34 | |||
| HANSON, Pauline (Re-elected 5) | 26,550 | 0.88 | |||
| GURUSWAMY, Raj | 182 | 0.01 | |||
| CHRISTENSEN, George | 5,037 | 0.17 | |||
| Legalise Cannabis (C) | 161,899 | 5.37 | +3.62 | 0.3760 | 5.9 |
| Ticket votes | 152,329 | 5.05 | |||
| BRADLEY, Bernard Anthony | 8,644 | 0.29 | |||
| LUYKEN, Suzette | 926 | 0.03 | |||
| United Australia (R) | 126,343 | 4.19 | +0.67 | 0.2934 | 7.7 |
| Ticket votes | 116,569 | 3.87 | |||
| PALMER, Clive Frederick | 9,318 | 0.31 | |||
| BREWSTER, Martin | 169 | 0.01 | |||
| ADIDI, Desmond | 111 | 0.00 | |||
| McCABE, Jack | 176 | 0.01 | |||
| Liberal Democrats (W) | 75,158 | 2.49 | +1.67 | 0.1746 | 10.8 |
| Ticket votes | 67,063 | 2.23 | |||
| NEWMAN, Campbell | 7,493 | 0.25 | |||
| GRAINGER, Tegan | 602 | 0.02 | |||
| Animal Justice (P) | 38,765 | 1.29 | -0.04 | 0.0900 | 5.4 |
| Ticket votes | 36,661 | 1.22 | |||
| SEVERNS, Mackenzie | 1,724 | 0.06 | |||
| WEBER, Sue | 380 | 0.01 | |||
| Indigenous – Aboriginal Party (K) | 32,841 | 1.09 | +1.09 | 0.0763 | 10.1 |
| Ticket votes | 29,531 | 0.98 | |||
| HENAWAY, Lionel | 2,610 | 0.09 | |||
| CARR, Jenny-Lee | 700 | 0.02 | |||
| Great Australian Party (M) | 24,262 | 0.81 | +0.62 | 0.0564 | 19.7 |
| Ticket votes | 19,481 | 0.65 | |||
| MILES, Jason | 4,622 | 0.15 | |||
| COTTAM, Elise | 159 | 0.01 | |||
| Sustainable Australia (D) | 19,146 | 0.64 | +0.34 | 0.0445 | 9.0 |
| Ticket votes | 17,425 | 0.58 | |||
| MARTIN, Rhett | 1,507 | 0.05 | |||
| FIRESTONE, Timotheos | 214 | 0.01 | |||
| Australian Values Party (N) | 18,194 | 0.60 | +0.60 | 0.0423 | 12.6 |
| Ticket votes | 15,897 | 0.53 | |||
| RUSSELL, Heston | 2,167 | 0.07 | |||
| HANSEN, Jay | 130 | 0.00 | |||
| Ungrouped (UNG) | 14,096 | 0.47 | +0.47 | 0.0327 | 100.0 |
| LYON, Robert | 5,693 | 0.19 | |||
| SCHEFE, David John | 688 | 0.02 | |||
| TEMPLE, Lindsay | 5,462 | 0.18 | |||
| HAMILTON, Chey Geoffrey | 185 | 0.01 | |||
| SMITH, Lorraine | 399 | 0.01 | |||
| QUINLIVAN, Laurence | 315 | 0.01 | |||
| KOCHARDY, Karakan Karoly | 387 | 0.01 | |||
| ROGERS, Peter | 967 | 0.03 | |||
| Informed Medical Options (T) | 13,916 | 0.46 | +0.18 | 0.0323 | 15.6 |
| Ticket votes | 11,749 | 0.39 | |||
| LAHN, Allona | 1,708 | 0.06 | |||
| MELHOP, Jasmine | 279 | 0.01 | |||
| LAMBETH, Peter | 180 | 0.01 | |||
| Group A (A) | 13,205 | 0.44 | +0.44 | 0.0307 | 25.0 |
| Ticket votes | 9,904 | 0.33 | |||
| HARRIS, Len | 2,833 | 0.09 | |||
| YUILLE, Debra | 468 | 0.02 | |||
| Australian Democrats (Q) | 11,473 | 0.38 | +0.38 | 0.0266 | 8.8 |
| Ticket votes | 10,461 | 0.35 | |||
| ARBUCKLE, Luke | 886 | 0.03 | |||
| SIMPSON, Chris | 126 | 0.00 | |||
| FUSION (U) | 11,079 | 0.37 | -0.10 | 0.0257 | 9.2 |
| Ticket votes | 10,059 | 0.33 | |||
| SELIC, Brandon | 869 | 0.03 | |||
| WHATLING, Roger | 151 | 0.01 | |||
| Socialist Alliance (B) | 10,538 | 0.35 | +0.35 | 0.0245 | 14.8 |
| Ticket votes | 8,977 | 0.30 | |||
| LEES, Renee | 1,339 | 0.04 | |||
| EMANUEL, Kamala | 222 | 0.01 | |||
| Federation Party (O) | 7,330 | 0.24 | +0.24 | 0.0170 | 10.7 |
| Ticket votes | 6,547 | 0.22 | |||
| TILYARD, Isabel | 518 | 0.02 | |||
| BENNETT, Jackie | 198 | 0.01 | |||
| SMYTH, Michael Francis | 67 | 0.00 | |||
| Reason Australia (E) | 6,514 | 0.22 | +0.22 | 0.0151 | 14.3 |
| Ticket votes | 5,584 | 0.19 | |||
| WILLIAMS, Ron | 806 | 0.03 | |||
| JORDAN, Frank | 124 | 0.00 | |||
| Federal ICAC Now (G) | 6,199 | 0.21 | +0.21 | 0.0144 | 14.1 |
| Ticket votes | 5,323 | 0.18 | |||
| PAYNE, Kerin | 775 | 0.03 | |||
| CARROLL, Ken | 101 | 0.00 | |||
| Citizens Party (L) | 6,123 | 0.20 | +0.13 | 0.0142 | 10.6 |
| Ticket votes | 5,473 | 0.18 | |||
| PUKALLUS, Jan | 585 | 0.02 | |||
| DOEL, Rod | 65 | 0.00 | |||
| Group H (H) | 4,566 | 0.15 | +0.15 | 0.0106 | 41.2 |
| Ticket votes | 2,685 | 0.09 | |||
| DICKSON, Steve | 927 | 0.03 | |||
| LLOYD, Rebecca | 954 | 0.03 | |||
| Democratic Alliance (V) | 4,555 | 0.15 | +0.15 | 0.0106 | 18.2 |
| Ticket votes | 3,726 | 0.12 | |||
| PAVLOU, Drew | 808 | 0.03 | |||
| LEITCH, Simon | 21 | 0.00 | |||
| TNL (F) | 4,302 | 0.14 | +0.14 | 0.0100 | 22.4 |
| Ticket votes | 3,339 | 0.11 | |||
| BRENNAN, Bess | 719 | 0.02 | |||
| KENNISH, Hannah | 88 | 0.00 | |||
| HOPLEY, Steven | 51 | 0.00 | |||
| MOMSEN, Jonathon | 30 | 0.00 | |||
| INGRAM, Lloyd | 27 | 0.00 | |||
| CREIGHTON, Jack | 48 | 0.00 | |||
| Group I (I) | 1,129 | 0.04 | +0.04 | 0.0026 | 18.8 |
| Ticket votes | 917 | 0.03 | |||
| HEAD, Mike | 157 | 0.01 | |||
| DAVIS, John | 55 | 0.00 | |||
| …. (Katter) | 0 | -1.77 | |||
| …. (Fraser Anning) | 0 | -1.28 | |||
| …. (SFF) | 0 | -1.01 | |||
| …. (Conservative) | 0 | -1.00 | |||
| …. (DLP) | 0 | -0.99 | |||
| …. (Others) | 0 | -3.54 |
Note: Around 5,000 votes for an Ungrouped Katter’s Australian Party candidate has been included in the Ungrouped total.
After the election of James McGrath (LNP), Murray Watt (Labor) and Matt Canavan (LNP), no other candidate had more than a quota of votes. Anthony Chisholm (Labor) and Penny Allman-Payne (Greens) were well ahead in the race to the next two positions, while Pauline Hanson (One Nation) was narrowly ahead of Amanda Stoker (LNP) in the race for a single seat. The count now proceeded by the successive exclusion of the lowest polling candidate and the distribution of their preferences.
By count 247, only eight candidates remained in the contest. The total votes, percentage and quota for each candidate is shown in the table below. The ‘Transfers’ column shows the votes gained compared to the candidate’s party total at Count 1. The LNP and Labor totals and change column exclude the quota of votes set aside for the elected candidate.
The table shows clearly that Legalise Cannabis, the Greens and One Nation were far and away the most popular destinations for preferences from excluded candidates.
| Candidate (Party) | Transfers | Votes | Pct | Quotas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLMAN-PAYNE, Penny (GRN) | +36,334 | 409,794 | 13.60 | 0.9518 |
| CHISHOLM, Anthony (ALP) | +15,625 | 329,284 | 10.93 | 0.7648 |
| HANSON, Pauline (ONP) | +32,291 | 255,216 | 8.47 | 0.5928 |
| STOKER, Amanda (LNP) | +16,450 | 216,982 | 7.20 | 0.5040 |
| BRADLEY, Bernard (LCA) | +37,726 | 199,625 | 6.62 | 0.4636 |
| PALMER, Clive (UAP) | +21,108 | 147,451 | 4.89 | 0.3425 |
| NEWMAN, Campbell (LDP) | +11,303 | 86,461 | 2.87 | 0.2008 |
| SEVERNS, Mackenzie (AJP) | +23,688 | 62,453 | 2.07 | 0.1451 |
| Exhausted/Loss by fraction | +14,943 | 14,943 | 0.50 | 0.0347 |
Counts 248 to 251 excluded Mackenzie Severns (Animal Justice). The Greens and Legalise Cannabis were the most popular next preference.
| Candidate (Party) | Transfers | Votes | Pct | Quotas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLMAN-PAYNE, Penny (GRN) | +15,353 | 425,147 | 14.11 | 0.9874 |
| CHISHOLM, Anthony (ALP) | +7,106 | 336,390 | 11.16 | 0.7813 |
| HANSON, Pauline (ONP) | +6,267 | 261,483 | 8.68 | 0.6073 |
| STOKER, Amanda (LNP) | +5,731 | 222,713 | 7.39 | 0.5173 |
| BRADLEY, Bernard (LCA) | +12,484 | 212,109 | 7.04 | 0.4926 |
| PALMER, Clive (UAP) | +6,589 | 154,040 | 5.11 | 0.3578 |
| NEWMAN, Campbell (LDP) | +1,939 | 88,400 | 2.93 | 0.2053 |
| SEVERNS, Mackenzie (AJP) | -62,453 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0000 |
| Exhausted/Loss by fraction | +6,984 | 21,927 | 0.73 | 0.0509 |
Counts 252-255 excluded former Queensland Premier Campbell Newman (Liberal Democrats). Despite the party’s how-to-vote having a well-reported second preference for United Australia, only 11.2% of voters followed the preference recommendation to United Australia. One-third flowed to Amanda Stoker (LNP) and a quarter to Pauline Hanson (ONP) though Hanson maintained her lead over Stoker.
| Candidate (Party) | Transfers | Votes | Pct | Quotas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLMAN-PAYNE, Penny (GRN) | +5,374 | 430,521 | 14.28 | 0.9999 |
| CHISHOLM, Anthony (ALP) | +13,511 | 349,901 | 11.61 | 0.8127 |
| HANSON, Pauline (ONP) | +22,293 | 283,776 | 9.42 | 0.6591 |
| STOKER, Amanda (LNP) | +29,273 | 251,986 | 8.36 | 0.5853 |
| BRADLEY, Bernard (LCA) | +3,855 | 215,964 | 7.17 | 0.5016 |
| PALMER, Clive (UAP) | +9,917 | 163,957 | 5.44 | 0.3808 |
| NEWMAN, Campbell (LDP) | -88,400 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0000 |
| Exhausted/Loss by fraction | +4,177 | 26,104 | 0.87 | 0.0606 |
On the exclusion of Clive Palmer (United Australia), only 6.1% of preferences flowed to the Greens, but this was just enough to put the Greens over quota and elect Penny Allman-Payne to the fourth vacancy.
More importantly, 56.6% of the votes with Palmer flowed to Pauline Hanson. This pushed Hanson ahead of Anthony Chisholm (Labor) and opened up a wide lead over Amanda Stoker (LNP) that would be impossible to close.
| Candidate (Party) | Transfers | Votes | Pct | Quotas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLMAN-PAYNE, Penny (GRN) | +10,014 | 440,535 | 14.62 | 1.0232 |
| HANSON, Pauline (ONP) | +92,790 | 376,566 | 12.49 | 0.8746 |
| CHISHOLM, Anthony (ALP) | +12,375 | 362,276 | 12.02 | 0.8414 |
| STOKER, Amanda (LNP) | +25,328 | 277,314 | 9.20 | 0.6441 |
| BRADLEY, Bernard (LCA) | +12,091 | 228,055 | 7.57 | 0.5297 |
| PALMER, Clive (UAP) | -163,957 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0000 |
| Exhausted/Loss by fraction | +11,359 | 37,463 | 1.24 | 0.0870 |
Count 260 distributed the small Green surplus, half of which flowed to Labor.
| Candidate (Party) | Transfers | Votes | Pct | Quotas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLMAN-PAYNE, Penny (GRN) | -9,982 | 430,553 | 14.29 | 1.0000 |
| HANSON, Pauline (ONP) | +410 | 376,976 | 12.51 | 0.8756 |
| CHISHOLM, Anthony (ALP) | +4,933 | 367,209 | 12.18 | 0.8529 |
| STOKER, Amanda (LNP) | +919 | 278,233 | 9.23 | 0.6462 |
| BRADLEY, Bernard (LCA) | +2,731 | 230,786 | 7.66 | 0.5360 |
| Exhausted/Loss by fraction | +989 | 38,452 | 1.28 | 0.0893 |
The last exclusion was Bernard Bradley (Legalise Cannabis). 41.2% of his preferences exhausted, the rest splitting 22.7% to Labor, 22.4% to Hanson and Stoker 13.7%. At this point both Hanson and Chisholm were just short of a quota. With only three candidate left in the race for the final two seats, there was no need to exclude and distribute Amanda Stoker’s preferences. With the higher vote, Pauline Hanson (One Nation) was declared elected to the fifth vacancy and Anthony Chisholm (Labor)to the sixth with Amanda Stoker (LNP) defeated in her quest for re-election.
Only 4.43% of the vote (0.31 quotas) had exhausted preferences by the end of the count.
| Candidate (Party) | Transfers | Votes | Pct | Quotas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HANSON, Pauline (ONP) | +51,742 | 428,718 | 14.22 | 0.9957 |
| CHISHOLM, Anthony (ALP) | +52,274 | 419,483 | 13.92 | 0.9743 |
| STOKER, Amanda (LNP) | +31,631 | 309,864 | 10.28 | 0.7197 |
| BRADLEY, Bernard (LCA) | -230,786 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0000 |
| Exhausted/Loss by fraction | +95,139 | 133,591 | 4.43 | 0.3103 |
How significant is the impact of column assignment on preferencing, and how is it measured as distinct from genuine voter sentiment?
Is the view that the Legalise Cannabis vote was a protest vote?
COMMENT: I like to see preference flows as a measure of where voters see an affinity between parties, what I call an affinity preference. This is very difficult to test, but in my opinion there is more likely to be an affinity preference between two parties placed close together where voters can see both parties, than there will be where voters must seek out the second party. So in 2019 the very strong preference flows between the LNP, UAP and One Nation in Queensland was aided by the fact they were placed next to each other at the left hand end of the ballot paper.
As Glenn Druery always says, any party with ‘Marijuana’ or ‘Cannabis” in the party name is guaranteed of 1-2% of the vote.
Nonetheless, Legalise Cannabis tripled their vote in Qld since the last election. Perhaps the name change from the somewhat jokey “H.E.M.P” did them some good. Looks like they will be the 5th last party eliminated, probably on around 0.6 quotas or thereabout.
The Legalise Cannabis vote wasn’t a protest vote! For me anyway. It was a vote to wipe out a century of stupidity in regards to Cannabis. Perhaps the greatest fraud of the 20th Century perpetrated on an uninformed and unaware general public. There’s an excellent tome on the whole subject by the author Martin Booth entitled “Cannabis – A History”.
Antony, do you think there is a case for separate Liberal and National senate tickets under the current system, just as Labor and Greens have? Say, instead of LNP getting 2.47 quotas, the Liberals got 1.73 and Nationals got 0.74. That puts both a second and third candidate well ahead of Pauline Hanson’s 0.52. I understand they are no longer separate parties, but perhaps they need to look at demerging for federal elections. They caucus separately in Canberra, anyway.
COMMENT: But if you run split tickets and the partial quotas work out badly, you can end up losing a seat. With the current Senate system, you will lose preferences between tickets so you would have to be very confident that separate tickets will work in your favour. If you run two tickets and draw columns at opposite ends of the ballot paper you can be certain to have a higher rate of exhaustion.