2022 ACT Senate Election

• Re-elected 1 – Katy Gallagher (Labor)
• Elected 2 – David Pocock (Independent)
• Defeated – Zed Seselja (Liberal)

Party Outcome: Liberal (-1), Independent (+1)

The final first preferences table and a summary of the preferences distributions are published inside the post.

David Pocock trailed on first preferences, but with the Liberal Party having polled only three-quarters of a quota, Pocock was easily able to overtake Zed Seselja and win on preferences. Overall Pocock received around 72.5% of preferences while Zed Seselja received only 18.9% with 8.6% exhausted. Seselja finished with 0.86 quotas while Pocock was elected with 1.09 quotas.

Commentary on Result

The ACT has only two Senate seats meaning the quota to elect a Senator is 33.3% of the vote. Since the ACT first elected Senators in 1975, every election has produced the same pairing, one Labor Senator and one Liberal Senator.

Labor’s Katy Gallagher has been easily re-elected to the first Senate vacancy. Labor’s total vote was slightly above the quota at 33.4%, but the votes for Gallagher were about 440 votes short of a quota. Several candidates low on party lists, including the second Labor candidate, were excluded before Gallagher achieved a quota.

Winning the second ACT seat is Rugby Union international David Pocock, winning as an Independent and breaking the four decades major party grip on ACT Senate seats. Pocock’s ticket polled 21.2% of the vote or 0.64 quotas. Preferences from the Greens with 0.31 of a quota and Kim Rubenstein with 0.13 of a quota were enough to allow Pocock to easily pass sitting Senator Zed Seselja and win the second ACT seat. Pocock’s election could be crucial in a finely balanced Senate where Labor plus the Greens will have 38 of the 76 seats and one more vote would be needed to pass legislation.

Liberal Senator Zed Seselja has been defeated. The Liberal vote is 24.8% or 0.74 quotas, not enough to overcome the strong flows of preferences to Pocock.

First Preference Result Table

Enrolment – 314,329
Total Votes / Turnout – 290,308, 92.4% of enrolment
Informal Votes – 5,091 (1.8%)
Provisional Quota – 95,073
Below-the-line Vote – 18.9%
Last Update – Saturday, 11 June 2022, 21:41

With no candidate having a quota, the count proceeded by excluded the lowest polling candidates. Initially these were the second candidate on each ticket. Labor’s second candidate Maddy Northam was excluded at Count 11 but there were enough votes leaking out of the Labor ticket to leave Katy Gallagher short of a quota. Count 12 excluded the Ungrouped candidate, enough to put Gallagher over quota. Count 13 distributed the 164 vote Labor surplus, counts 14-15 excluded the Australian Progressives ticket, then counts 16-17 excluded the second Liberal candidate Kacey Lam.

With only one candidate remaining from each group after Count 17, the total votes, percentages and quotas stood as below. The ‘Transfers’ column shows the change in group vote totals since the first preference tally. Zed Seselja on the Liberal ticket had 0.74 of a quota to David Pocock 0.64.

Counts 18 through 27 excluded in order the final candidates from Informed Medical Options, Sustainable Australia, Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis and the United Australia Party. Taken together, these preference exclusions slightly favoured Seselja.

Counts 28-29 excluded Kim Rubenstein, dramatically closing the gap between Seselja and Pocock to just 1,235 votes. Of Rubenstein’s votes, 64.7% flowed to Pocock as preferences, 21.9% to the Greens, 9.4% to Seselja and 4.1% exhsusted.

Count 30 now excluded the vast bulk of Green votes putting Pocock over quota and into the second Senate seat. Of the Green votes distributed, 77.8% flowed to Pocock and only 12.9% to Seselja.