2021 Federal Redistribution – Draft Boundaries for Victoria

26 July 2021 – google searches still find this post but a much more complete analysis of the final boundaries has now been published at 2021 Federal Redistribution – Boundaries Finalised for Victoria This includes maps of the major boundary changes.

UPDATE 29 June 2021 – The boundaries have been finalised with various nips and tucks. New maps haven’t been published yet which makes it hard to calculate new margins. The major change appear to be the changes to Macnamara have been undone, and Tucker has reverted back to being known as Corangamite. I’ll review all the calculations after the map details are published on 26 July.

Last year’s review of state representation in the House of Representatives recommended that Victoria gain a seat, increasing its number of members from 38 to 39 seats.

The short story is the seat of Corangamite has been re-named Tucker and becomes a more urban seat centred on southern Geelong.

There is a new seat called Hawke covering Melbourne’s outer west and north-west fringe including Sunbury, Melton, Bacchus Marsh and Ballan.

Most urban seats have had some boundary changes. The transfer of Springvale and Noble Park from Bruce to Hotham means the two seats more or less swap margins. Chisholm is slightly weakened for Liberal Gladys Liu and suburb swaps between Macnamara and Higgins opens an opportunity for the Greens to pass Labor and win Macnamara.

The table below is set out entirely based on two-party preferred margins. Note that Indi is Independent held and Melbourne is held by the Greens.

I don’t have the capacity to do first preference estimates at the moment but there are versions around See the Tallyroom site and the Poll Bludger site.

Division Old Margin New Margin Change
Aston LIB 10.1% L/NP 10.1% no change
Ballarat ALP 11.0% ALP 10.1% 0.9 to L/NP
Bendigo ALP 9.0% ALP 8.9% 0.2 to L/NP
Bruce ALP 14.2% ALP 7.5% 6.6 to L/NP
Calwell ALP 18.8% ALP 19.6% 0.8 to ALP
Casey LIB 4.6% L/NP 4.6% no change
Chisholm LIB 0.6% L/NP 0.2% 0.4 to ALP
Cooper ALP 26.3% ALP 26.2% 0.1 to L/NP
Corio ALP 10.3% ALP 10.3% no change
Deakin LIB 4.8% L/NP 4.7% 0.1 to ALP
Dunkley ALP 2.7% ALP 2.7% no change
Flinders LIB 5.6% L/NP 5.6% no change
Fraser ALP 14.2% ALP 18.1% 3.9 to ALP
Gellibrand ALP 14.8% ALP 13.0% 1.8 to L/NP
Gippsland NAT 16.7% L/NP 16.7% no change
Goldstein LIB 7.8% L/NP 7.8% no change
Gorton ALP 15.4% ALP 14.3% 1.1 to L/NP
Hawke (New seat) .. ALP 10.4% ..
Higgins LIB 3.9% L/NP 3.7% 0.2 to ALP
Holt ALP 8.7% ALP 8.5% 0.2 to L/NP
Hotham ALP 5.9% ALP 11.3% 5.4 to ALP
Indi LIB 12.7% L/NP 12.7% no change
Isaacs ALP 6.4% ALP 6.2% 0.2 to L/NP
Jagajaga ALP 6.6% ALP 5.9% 0.7 to L/NP
Kooyong LIB 6.7% L/NP 6.6% 0.1 to ALP
La Trobe LIB 4.5% L/NP 4.9% 0.4 to L/NP
Lalor ALP 12.4% ALP 12.4% no change
Macnamara ALP 6.2% ALP 6.3% no change
Mallee NAT 16.2% L/NP 15.7% 0.6 to ALP
Maribyrnong ALP 11.2% ALP 10.3% 0.9 to L/NP
McEwen ALP 5.0% ALP 5.3% 0.3 to ALP
Melbourne ALP 17.1% ALP 17.8% 0.7 to ALP
Menzies LIB 7.5% L/NP 7.0% 0.5 to ALP
Monash LIB 7.4% L/NP 6.9% 0.5 to ALP
Nicholls NAT 20.0% L/NP 20.0% no change
Scullin ALP 21.7% ALP 21.7% no change
Tucker (formerly Corangamite) ALP 1.1% ALP 1.1% no change
Wannon LIB 10.4% L/NP 10.2% 0.2 to ALP
Wills ALP 25.9% ALP 25.7% 0.1 to L/NP