Last year’s review of state representation in the House of Representatives recommended that Victoria gain a seat, increasing its number pof members from 38 to 39 seats.
The draft boundaries are released at noon eastern time and I will update this post through the day with information on the new boundaries and estimated new margins.
In short, the seat of Corangamite has been re-named Tucker and becomes a more urban seat centred on southern Geelong.
There is a new seat called Hawke covering Melbourne’s outer fringe including Sunbury, Melton, Bacchus Marsh and Ballan.
Most urban seats have had some boundary changes. The transfer of Springvale and Noble Park from Bruce to Hotham means the two seats more or less swap margins. Chisholm is slightly weakened for Liberal Gladys Liu and suburb swaps between Macnamara and Higgins opens an opportunity for the Greens to pass Labor and take the seat.
The table below is set out entirely based on two-party preferred margins. Note that Indi is Independent held and Melbourne is held by the Greens.
|Division||Old Margin||New Margin||Change|
|Aston||LIB 10.1%||L/NP 10.1%||no change|
|Ballarat||ALP 11.0%||ALP 10.1%||0.9 to L/NP|
|Bendigo||ALP 9.0%||ALP 8.9%||0.2 to L/NP|
|Bruce||ALP 14.2%||ALP 7.5%||6.6 to L/NP|
|Calwell||ALP 18.8%||ALP 19.6%||0.8 to ALP|
|Casey||LIB 4.6%||L/NP 4.6%||no change|
|Chisholm||LIB 0.6%||L/NP 0.2%||0.4 to ALP|
|Cooper||ALP 26.3%||ALP 26.2%||0.1 to L/NP|
|Corio||ALP 10.3%||ALP 10.3%||no change|
|Deakin||LIB 4.8%||L/NP 4.7%||0.1 to ALP|
|Dunkley||ALP 2.7%||ALP 2.7%||no change|
|Flinders||LIB 5.6%||L/NP 5.6%||no change|
|Fraser||ALP 14.2%||ALP 18.1%||3.9 to ALP|
|Gellibrand||ALP 14.8%||ALP 13.0%||1.8 to L/NP|
|Gippsland||NAT 16.7%||L/NP 16.7%||no change|
|Goldstein||LIB 7.8%||L/NP 7.8%||no change|
|Gorton||ALP 15.4%||ALP 14.3%||1.1 to L/NP|
|Hawke (New seat)||..||ALP 10.4%||..|
|Higgins||LIB 3.9%||L/NP 3.7%||0.2 to ALP|
|Holt||ALP 8.7%||ALP 8.5%||0.2 to L/NP|
|Hotham||ALP 5.9%||ALP 11.3%||5.4 to ALP|
|Indi||LIB 12.7%||L/NP 12.7%||no change|
|Isaacs||ALP 6.4%||ALP 6.2%||0.2 to L/NP|
|Jagajaga||ALP 6.6%||ALP 5.9%||0.7 to L/NP|
|Kooyong||LIB 6.7%||L/NP 6.6%||0.1 to ALP|
|La Trobe||LIB 4.5%||L/NP 4.9%||0.4 to L/NP|
|Lalor||ALP 12.4%||ALP 12.4%||no change|
|Macnamara||ALP 6.2%||ALP 6.3%||no change|
|Mallee||NAT 16.2%||L/NP 15.7%||0.6 to ALP|
|Maribyrnong||ALP 11.2%||ALP 10.3%||0.9 to L/NP|
|McEwen||ALP 5.0%||ALP 5.3%||0.3 to ALP|
|Melbourne||ALP 17.1%||ALP 17.8%||0.7 to ALP|
|Menzies||LIB 7.5%||L/NP 7.0%||0.5 to ALP|
|Monash||LIB 7.4%||L/NP 6.9%||0.5 to ALP|
|Nicholls||NAT 20.0%||L/NP 20.0%||no change|
|Scullin||ALP 21.7%||ALP 21.7%||no change|
|Tucker (formerly Corangamite)||ALP 1.1%||ALP 1.1%||no change|
|Wannon||LIB 10.4%||L/NP 10.2%||0.2 to ALP|
|Wills||ALP 25.9%||ALP 25.7%||0.1 to L/NP|
Named after former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke, the new seat of Hawke has been fashioned from the satellite communities to the north and north-west of Melbourne. It takes in Sunbury from McEwen, Melton from Gorton, and Bacchus March and Ballan from Ballarat. It has an estimated Labor margin of 10.4%.
Tucker is the new name for Corangamite. This is the second attempt to re-name the seat, the previously proposed name Cox having been universally derided when put forward in 2018. The electorate no longer contains Lake Corangamite or Corangamite Shire, and despite being a federation seat, has been named to avoid geographic confusion.
The new name commemorates Margaret (Lilardia) Elizabeth Tucker MBE (1904–1996), a Yorta Yorta woman, for her significant work to create a more equal and understanding society for Aboriginal people. She was a founding member and treasurer of the Australian Aborigines League and campaigned in support of citizenship rights for Aboriginal people. She was also the the first woman appointed to the Victorian Aborigines Welfare Board in 1964 and the first Aboriginal woman to join the Commonwealth’s Ministry of Aboriginal Affairs in 1968. Her leadership and support played a vital role in establishing the Victorian Aboriginal Health Service in 1973.
The new Tucker loses parts of the Surf Coast end of the former Corangamite, but despite the boundary changes, has no change to its 1.4% Labor margin.
Already the Liberal Party’s most marginal seat in Victoria, Liberal MP Gladys Liu sees her narrow margin of 0.6% eroded to just 0.2%.
Previously known as Melbourne Ports, this seat has had its boundary with neighbouring Higgins re-arranged. The seat’s peninsula extending east to Caufield has been transferred to Higgins, in exchange for South Yarra and Prahran going in the opposite direction. While this has only minor impact on the seat’s two-party preferred vote, the change alters the balance of support between Labor and the Greens. The significant Jewish vote in Caufield was long harnessed by former Labor MP Michael Danby in his battle with the Greens. With Caufield removed, the dynamic of left politics in Macnamara may change.