2021 Federal Redistribution – Draft Boundaries for Victoria

Last year’s review of state representation in the House of Representatives recommended that Victoria gain a seat, increasing its number pof members from 38 to 39 seats.

The draft boundaries are released at noon eastern time and I will update this post through the day with information on the new boundaries and estimated new margins.

In short, the seat of Corangamite has been re-named Tucker and becomes a more urban seat centred on southern Geelong.

There is a new seat called Hawke covering Melbourne’s outer fringe including Sunbury, Melton, Bacchus Marsh and Ballan.

Most urban seats have had some boundary changes. The transfer of Springvale and Noble Park from Bruce to Hotham means the two seats more or less swap margins. Chisholm is slightly weakened for Liberal Gladys Liu and suburb swaps between Macnamara and Higgins opens an opportunity for the Greens to pass Labor and take the seat.

The table below is set out entirely based on two-party preferred margins. Note that Indi is Independent held and Melbourne is held by the Greens.

I don’t have the capacity to do first preference estimates at the moment but there are versions around See the Tallyroom site and the Poll Bludger site.

Division Old Margin New Margin Change
Aston LIB 10.1% L/NP 10.1% no change
Ballarat ALP 11.0% ALP 10.1% 0.9 to L/NP
Bendigo ALP 9.0% ALP 8.9% 0.2 to L/NP
Bruce ALP 14.2% ALP 7.5% 6.6 to L/NP
Calwell ALP 18.8% ALP 19.6% 0.8 to ALP
Casey LIB 4.6% L/NP 4.6% no change
Chisholm LIB 0.6% L/NP 0.2% 0.4 to ALP
Cooper ALP 26.3% ALP 26.2% 0.1 to L/NP
Corio ALP 10.3% ALP 10.3% no change
Deakin LIB 4.8% L/NP 4.7% 0.1 to ALP
Dunkley ALP 2.7% ALP 2.7% no change
Flinders LIB 5.6% L/NP 5.6% no change
Fraser ALP 14.2% ALP 18.1% 3.9 to ALP
Gellibrand ALP 14.8% ALP 13.0% 1.8 to L/NP
Gippsland NAT 16.7% L/NP 16.7% no change
Goldstein LIB 7.8% L/NP 7.8% no change
Gorton ALP 15.4% ALP 14.3% 1.1 to L/NP
Hawke (New seat) .. ALP 10.4% ..
Higgins LIB 3.9% L/NP 3.7% 0.2 to ALP
Holt ALP 8.7% ALP 8.5% 0.2 to L/NP
Hotham ALP 5.9% ALP 11.3% 5.4 to ALP
Indi LIB 12.7% L/NP 12.7% no change
Isaacs ALP 6.4% ALP 6.2% 0.2 to L/NP
Jagajaga ALP 6.6% ALP 5.9% 0.7 to L/NP
Kooyong LIB 6.7% L/NP 6.6% 0.1 to ALP
La Trobe LIB 4.5% L/NP 4.9% 0.4 to L/NP
Lalor ALP 12.4% ALP 12.4% no change
Macnamara ALP 6.2% ALP 6.3% no change
Mallee NAT 16.2% L/NP 15.7% 0.6 to ALP
Maribyrnong ALP 11.2% ALP 10.3% 0.9 to L/NP
McEwen ALP 5.0% ALP 5.3% 0.3 to ALP
Melbourne ALP 17.1% ALP 17.8% 0.7 to ALP
Menzies LIB 7.5% L/NP 7.0% 0.5 to ALP
Monash LIB 7.4% L/NP 6.9% 0.5 to ALP
Nicholls NAT 20.0% L/NP 20.0% no change
Scullin ALP 21.7% ALP 21.7% no change
Tucker (formerly Corangamite) ALP 1.1% ALP 1.1% no change
Wannon LIB 10.4% L/NP 10.2% 0.2 to ALP
Wills ALP 25.9% ALP 25.7% 0.1 to L/NP

Hawke

Named after former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke, the new seat of Hawke has been fashioned from the satellite communities to the north and north-west of Melbourne. It takes in Sunbury from McEwen, Melton from Gorton, and Bacchus March and Ballan from Ballarat. It has an estimated Labor margin of 10.4%.

Tucker

Tucker is the new name for Corangamite. This is the second attempt to re-name the seat, the previously proposed name Cox having been universally derided when put forward in 2018. The electorate no longer contains Lake Corangamite or Corangamite Shire, and despite being a federation seat, has been named to avoid geographic confusion.

The new name commemorates Margaret (Lilardia) Elizabeth Tucker MBE (1904–1996), a Yorta Yorta woman, for her significant work to create a more equal and understanding society for Aboriginal people. She was a founding member and treasurer of the Australian Aborigines League and campaigned in support of citizenship rights for Aboriginal people. She was also the the first woman appointed to the Victorian Aborigines Welfare Board in 1964 and the first Aboriginal woman to join the Commonwealth’s Ministry of Aboriginal Affairs in 1968. Her leadership and support played a vital role in establishing the Victorian Aboriginal Health Service in 1973.

The new Tucker loses parts of the Surf Coast end of the former Corangamite, but despite the boundary changes, has no change to its 1.4% Labor margin.

Chisholm

Already the Liberal Party’s most marginal seat in Victoria, Liberal MP Gladys Liu sees her narrow margin of 0.6% eroded to just 0.2%.

Macnamara

Previously known as Melbourne Ports, this seat has had its boundary with neighbouring Higgins re-arranged. The seat’s peninsula extending east to Caufield has been transferred to Higgins, in exchange for South Yarra and Prahran going in the opposite direction. While this has only minor impact on the seat’s two-party preferred vote, the change alters the balance of support between Labor and the Greens. The significant Jewish vote in Caufield was long harnessed by former Labor MP Michael Danby in his battle with the Greens. With Caufield removed, the dynamic of left politics in Macnamara may change.

24 thoughts on “2021 Federal Redistribution – Draft Boundaries for Victoria”

  1. I have some discrepancies with some of your figures in the “old margin” column listed below. I agree with your “old margin” figures except for what I have listed below.

    Cooper should be 14.65% not 26.3%.
    Indi should be 1.39% not 12.7%
    Kooyong should be 5.7% not 6.7%
    Melbourne should be 21.8% not 17.1%
    Wills should be 8.17% not 25.9%

    My “old margin” figures are taken from the TPP results of the 2019 federal election. How did you reach the above “old margin” figures?

    COMMENT: My old figures are the TPP results, that is two-party preferred. The figures you quote are two-candidate preferred figures, margins for contests that aren’t Labor versus Coalition. As I said in the post, I was only calculating two-party preferred margins. Once the boundaries are finalised I will probably do more work on estimating primary votes and two-candidate preferred margins.

  2. The redistribution around Chisholm and Menzies is crazy stuff. The suburb of Blackburn will be split into three seats! Box Hill will be split in two. The AEC write whatever they want to justify these absurd boundaries. They talk about the need to bring Warranwood into Deakin to “reunite the City of Maroondah” and yet say there’s no issue dividing the Box Hill business district in two and Blackburn into three seats.

    As a resident of Blackburn North, this will the the third seat in three elections – Deakin, then Chisholm then Menzies! What the hell do we here have in common with Templestowe / Park Orchards / Warrandyte / Wonga Park? What a farce.

  3. surely combining the inner suburbs and outer suburbs in separate seats means the electorate are more representative? yeah sure it probably would create another Greens seat in Melbourne but the whole communities of interest thing can’t really be carried over two distinct areas

    1. Tom the first and best

      The communities of interest of radial transport corridors and geographic features in Melbourne favour radial electorates.

  4. Any Green hopes of winning Fraser are quite forlorn. Yes, it picks up the rather yuppified Yarraville, Seddon and (even) West Footscray – but they’re far outweighed by Sunshine, St Albans and Deer Park, all of which are positively hostile to The Greens (and where they rarely deign to tread). It’s a more pronounced version of the problem that The Greens still face in Cooper and Willis: the further they stretch from the inner suburbs the harder they get.
    Much the same can be said of Maribyrnong: yes, it picks up Kensington but it also picks up Gladstone Park, Tullamarine and Keilor Park.

    1. Tom the first and best

      The only possibly way for their to be a winnable seat for the Greens in the inner-west is a north-south electorate along the Maribyrnong/Yarra, even then that is a while away. This redistribution proposes to move away from that by moving some of the more Green friendly areas of Gellibrand to Fraser, splitting the strong Greens areas like has traditionally been the case with Wills and what is now Cooper.

      Wills and Cooper are probably just a term or two of ALP majority government under a leader that does not inspire the left away from being won by the Greens (although probably on a continuingly marginal basis). Both the balance of urban densification (more in the south of these seats, particularly in Wills) and the gradual northward expansion of Green friendly demographics.

  5. The Greens to win Chisholm? They got 12% of the vote in 2019. They must have lots of hidden voters in suburbia to suddenly overtake Labor and win the seat from the Liberals.

  6. Box Hill being split in two along Whitehorse Road in Chisholm sticks out as a crazy boundary. And just one redistribution ago they logically removed the southern Chisholm part extending over the Monash (which everybody applauded at the time) and now they put it back again and delete another logical boundary in the North of Koonung Creek … in which Menzies has now jumped over it’s logical boundary

    And on another matter Corangamite name should remain (even if it’s lake is no longer in the district). Kooyong the suburb isn’t in Kooyong either and still it retains its 1901 Federation name. If the AEC wants Tucker … replace Hotham or Gellibrand named after two colonialists not replace an existing Aboriginal name

    1. Tom the first and best

      The Surf Coast and Midland highway booths that are going, apart from Lorne, are ALP leaning, balancing out Winchelsea and Birregurra.

  7. Evening.

    Thank you for this update.

    Is it possible to present the figures for both Melbourne and Indi in a way that reflects the actual voting patterns at least since 2013?

    (Clearly not two party preferred L-NP Labor)

    COMMENT: I don’t have calculations for either seat but there is little change in Melbourne and no change in Indi.

    1. “The new Tucker loses all of the Surf Coast end of the former Corangamite” is not correct – it cuts the Surf Coast in two, leaving the Torquay end of the Surf Coast in Tucker.

  8. I’d be very curious to see if the new seat of Hawke is an equivalent to the loss of the Liberal seat of Stirling in WA. Any take on that?

    COMMENT: The new Hawke is a Labor seat.

  9. Surprised to see Higgins with a reduction in its Liberal margin? It’s gaining Liberal Caulfield and losing most of its best Labor/Greens areas.

    1. The previous Liberal candidate for Macnamara had a shocker of a campaign, and Labor really improved their vote at the expense of the Liberals in most of Caulfield and Elsternwick, so it helps Labor in the 2PP in Higgins.

    1. Any update on McEwan
      If they were incorrect on first pass

      COMMENT: Complete calculations for all electorates including McEwen are in the table.

  10. What about seats where 2PP has Greens?

    COMMENT: I have no time to do that today or for the next week. Other commitments.

    1. Melbourne, Wills and Cooper have only minor changes.

      Macnamara should become much better for the Greens at the expense of their chances in Higgins.

      I’d expect Fraser might be getting close to Labor vs Green? Most of the good Green bits of the inner west are now united in this seat.

      1. Mark, not necessarily because as you head north up Chapel St, the Liberal vote strengthens which would offset some of the lost Liberal vote around Caulfield. There might be elections where the Greens can win the seat but its just as likely to go to the Liberals as they improve their support in areas around Albert Park and South Melbourne.

  11. Hi Antony, I’ve been looking at the new maps and I can’t help but think Fraser will become ALP vs GRN 2pp, as they lose much of their Liberal vote to Gorton and gain a chunk of Greens votes from Gellibrand and Maribyrnong. Do you think this will be the case, and if so, would you have a projected 2pp for that scenario?
    Thanks

    1. How do they choose the boundary line? Western border of Hawke to Ballarat has the weirdest run, splitting communities, rather than natural boundaries. Will be hard to know electorate.

      COMMENT: You should lodge a suggestion. While it is rare for the redistribution commissioners to abandon a major change, they commonly adopt suggestions for a better demarcation of boundaries if such a suggestion is made.

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