2021 Federal Redistribution – Draft Boundaries for Victoria

Last year’s review of state representation in the House of Representatives recommended that Victoria gain a seat, increasing its number of members from 38 to 39 seats.

The short story is the seat of Corangamite has been re-named Tucker and becomes a more urban seat centred on southern Geelong.

There is a new seat called Hawke covering Melbourne’s outer west and north-west fringe including Sunbury, Melton, Bacchus Marsh and Ballan.

Most urban seats have had some boundary changes. The transfer of Springvale and Noble Park from Bruce to Hotham means the two seats more or less swap margins. Chisholm is slightly weakened for Liberal Gladys Liu and suburb swaps between Macnamara and Higgins opens an opportunity for the Greens to pass Labor and win Macnamara.

The table below is set out entirely based on two-party preferred margins. Note that Indi is Independent held and Melbourne is held by the Greens.

I don’t have the capacity to do first preference estimates at the moment but there are versions around See the Tallyroom site and the Poll Bludger site.

Division Old Margin New Margin Change
Aston LIB 10.1% L/NP 10.1% no change
Ballarat ALP 11.0% ALP 10.1% 0.9 to L/NP
Bendigo ALP 9.0% ALP 8.9% 0.2 to L/NP
Bruce ALP 14.2% ALP 7.5% 6.6 to L/NP
Calwell ALP 18.8% ALP 19.6% 0.8 to ALP
Casey LIB 4.6% L/NP 4.6% no change
Chisholm LIB 0.6% L/NP 0.2% 0.4 to ALP
Cooper ALP 26.3% ALP 26.2% 0.1 to L/NP
Corio ALP 10.3% ALP 10.3% no change
Deakin LIB 4.8% L/NP 4.7% 0.1 to ALP
Dunkley ALP 2.7% ALP 2.7% no change
Flinders LIB 5.6% L/NP 5.6% no change
Fraser ALP 14.2% ALP 18.1% 3.9 to ALP
Gellibrand ALP 14.8% ALP 13.0% 1.8 to L/NP
Gippsland NAT 16.7% L/NP 16.7% no change
Goldstein LIB 7.8% L/NP 7.8% no change
Gorton ALP 15.4% ALP 14.3% 1.1 to L/NP
Hawke (New seat) .. ALP 10.4% ..
Higgins LIB 3.9% L/NP 3.7% 0.2 to ALP
Holt ALP 8.7% ALP 8.5% 0.2 to L/NP
Hotham ALP 5.9% ALP 11.3% 5.4 to ALP
Indi LIB 12.7% L/NP 12.7% no change
Isaacs ALP 6.4% ALP 6.2% 0.2 to L/NP
Jagajaga ALP 6.6% ALP 5.9% 0.7 to L/NP
Kooyong LIB 6.7% L/NP 6.6% 0.1 to ALP
La Trobe LIB 4.5% L/NP 4.9% 0.4 to L/NP
Lalor ALP 12.4% ALP 12.4% no change
Macnamara ALP 6.2% ALP 6.3% no change
Mallee NAT 16.2% L/NP 15.7% 0.6 to ALP
Maribyrnong ALP 11.2% ALP 10.3% 0.9 to L/NP
McEwen ALP 5.0% ALP 5.3% 0.3 to ALP
Melbourne ALP 17.1% ALP 17.8% 0.7 to ALP
Menzies LIB 7.5% L/NP 7.0% 0.5 to ALP
Monash LIB 7.4% L/NP 6.9% 0.5 to ALP
Nicholls NAT 20.0% L/NP 20.0% no change
Scullin ALP 21.7% ALP 21.7% no change
Tucker (formerly Corangamite) ALP 1.1% ALP 1.1% no change
Wannon LIB 10.4% L/NP 10.2% 0.2 to ALP
Wills ALP 25.9% ALP 25.7% 0.1 to L/NP

Hawke

Named after former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke, the new seat of Hawke has been fashioned from the satellite communities to the west and north-west of Melbourne. It takes in Sunbury from McEwen, Melton from Gorton, and Bacchus March and Ballan from Ballarat. It has an estimated Labor margin of 10.4%.

Tucker

Tucker is the new name for Corangamite. This is the second attempt to re-name the seat, the previously proposed name Cox having been universally derided when put forward in 2018. The electorate no longer contains Lake Corangamite or Corangamite Shire, and despite being a federation seat, has been named to avoid geographic confusion.

The new name commemorates Margaret (Lilardia) Elizabeth Tucker MBE (1904–1996), a Yorta Yorta woman, for her significant work to create a more equal and understanding society for Aboriginal people. She was a founding member and treasurer of the Australian Aborigines League and campaigned in support of citizenship rights for Aboriginal people. She was also the the first woman appointed to the Victorian Aborigines Welfare Board in 1964 and the first Aboriginal woman to join the Commonwealth’s Ministry of Aboriginal Affairs in 1968. Her leadership and support played a vital role in establishing the Victorian Aboriginal Health Service in 1973.

The new Tucker loses parts of the Surf Coast end of the former Corangamite, but despite the boundary changes, has no change to its 1.4% Labor margin.

Chisholm

Already the Liberal Party’s most marginal seat in Victoria, Liberal MP Gladys Liu sees her narrow margin of 0.6% eroded to just 0.2%.

Macnamara

Previously known as Melbourne Ports, this seat has had its boundary with neighbouring Higgins re-arranged. The seat’s peninsula extending east to Caufield has been transferred to Higgins, in exchange for South Yarra and Prahran going in the opposite direction. While this has only minor impact on the seat’s two-party preferred vote, the change alters the balance of support between Labor and the Greens. The significant Jewish vote in Caufield was long harnessed by former Labor MP Michael Danby in his battle with the Greens. With Caufield removed, the dynamic of left politics in Macnamara may change.