2021 Federal Redistribution – Boundaries Finalised for Victoria

Draft Federal electoral boundaries were released in March and finalised at the end of June.

Today the supporting documentation, the maps and enrolment data, have been published which allows me to publish estimated margins for the finalised boundaries.

There were two changes of significance from the draft boundaries. Most of the proposed suburb swaps between Macnamara and Higgins have been reversed, and the proposal to re-name Corangamite as Tucker has also been abandoned.

The overall summary of the redistribution is that all 38 continuing seats remain held by the party that won the division in 2019, and the newly created 39th division is called Hawke and is a safe Labor seat.

The redistribution was triggered by last year’s determination of state representation in the House of Representatives as required by Section 24 of the Constitution and the Electoral Act. The determination was that Victoria gain a seat, increasing its number of members from 38 to 39 seats, and Western Australia be reduced from 16 to 15 seats.

The new seat is based on Melbourne’s outer west and north-west fringe and includes Sunbury, Melton, Bacchus Marsh and Ballan. It has been named Hawke in honour of former Labor Prime Minister Robert James Lee (Bob) Hawke.

Most urban seats have had some boundary changes. The transfer of Springvale and Noble Park from Bruce to Hotham means the two seats more or less swap margins. Chisholm is slightly weakened for Liberal Gladys Liu.

The table below is set out entirely based on two-party preferred margins, which means it does not include estimated new margins for the Green seat of Melbourne, though the seat undergoes only minor changes. Indi is unchanged which leaves it as Independent held.

Many of the more important boundary changes have also been illustrated with maps of the old and new boundaries.

All the details on the redistribution plus maps can be found on the AEC website.

Update 27 July – After reviewing all calculations, I’ve made very small adjustments to the margins for the safe seats of Bruce, Hawke and Mallee.

Aston

Margin Notes on Changes
Old LIB 10.1 MP Alan Tudge (Liberal)
Boundaries unchanged.
New LIB 10.1

Ballarat

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 11.0 MP Catherine King (Labor)
Loses Ballan and Bacchus Marsh in the east to the new division of Hawke. Gains most of Golden Plains Shire to the south of from Corangamite and Wannon.
New ALP 10.3

Bendigo

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 9.0 MP Lisa Chesters (Labor)
To the south east loses Woodend to McEwen.
New ALP 8.9

Bruce

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 14.2 MP Julian Hill (Labor)
Shifts eastward, losing heavily Labor voting Springvale and Noble Park to Hotham in the west, while gaining parts of Berwick and Narre Warren from La Trobe in the east.
New ALP 7.3

Calwell

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 18.8 MP Maria Vamvakinou (Labor)
Loses Keilor Park, Gladstone Park and Tullamarine to Maribyrnong.
New ALP 19.6

Casey

Margin Notes on Changes
Old LIB 4.6 MP Tony Smith (Liberal) (retiring)
Very minor changes gaining around a thousand voters along the seat’s southern boundary from La Trobe.
New LIB 4.6

Chisholm

Margin Notes on Changes
Old LIB 0.6 MP Gladys Liu (Liberal)
Shifts south, losing parts of Box Hill, Blackburn, Nunawading and Forest Hill to Menzies and Deakin the north, while pushing south of Waverley Road to take in parts of Chadstone, Mount Waverley, Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill. Loses part of Surrey Hills to Kooyong.
New LIB 0.5

Cooper

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 26.3 MP Ged Kearney (Labor)
Very minor change, losing Clifton Hill in the south to Melbourne. The Labor margin versus the Greens is 14.6%.
New ALP 26.2

Corangamite

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 1.1 MP Libby Coker (Labor)
Loses all of the Surf Coast south from Anglesea to Wannon along with areas inland from Winchelsea, and parts of Golden Plains Shire north and west of Geelong to Ballarat.
New ALP 1.0

Corio

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 10.3 MP Richard Marles (Labor)
Boundaries unchanged.
New ALP 10.3

Deakin

Margin Notes on Changes
Old LIB 4.8 MP Michael Sukkar (Liberal)
Gains parts of Blackburn and Forest Hill from Chisholm and Warranwood from Menzies. Loses parts of Mitcham and Nunawading to Menzies.
New LIB 4.7

Dunkley

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 2.7 MP Peta Murphy (Labor)
Boundaries unchanged.
New ALP 2.7

Flinders

Margin Notes on Changes
Old LIB 5.6 MP Greg Hunt (Liberal)
Boundaries unchanged.
New LIB 5.6

Fraser

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 14.2 MP Daniel Mulino (Labor)
In then north loses Kings Park, Keilor Downs, Delahey, Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lake to Gorton. Gains Maidstone, Maribyrnong and parts of Footscray from Maribyrnong, and the rest of Footscray as well as Seddon, Kindsville and Yarraville from Gellibrand.
New ALP 18.1

Gellibrand

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 14.8 MP Tim Watts (Labor)
Loses Footscray, West Footscray, Seddon, Kingsville and Yarraville to Fraser. Loses parts of Truganina and Point Cook to Lalor while gaining Williams Landing in return.
New ALP 13.0

Gippsland

Margin Notes on Changes
Old NAT 16.7 MP Darren Chester (National)
Boundaries unchanged.
New NAT 16.7

Goldstein

Margin Notes on Changes
Old LIB 7.8 MP Tim Wilson (Liberal)
Boundaries unchanged.
New LIB 7.8

Gorton

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 15.4 MP Brendan O’Connor (Labor)
Loses Melton to the new seat of Hawke. Gains Kings Park, Keilor Downs, Delahey, Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lake in the east from Fraser.
New ALP 14.3

Hawke (New seat)

Margin Notes on Changes
Old .. New seat fashioned from the satellite communities to the west and north-west of Melbourne. It takes in Sunbury from McEwen, Melton from Gorton, and Bacchus March and Ballan from Ballarat. The electorate is named after former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke.
New ALP 10.2

Higgins

Margin Notes on Changes
Old LIB 3.9 MP Katie Allen (Liberal)
Loses part of Glen Iris to Kooyong and Hughesdale to Hotham. Gains Windsor from Macnamara.
New LIB 3.7

Holt

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 8.7 MP Anthony Byrne (Labor)
loses part of Narre Warren to Bruce.
New ALP 8.9

Hotham

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 5.9 MP Clare O’Neil (Labor)
Major changes that strengthen the Labor margin. Areas north of Wellington Road around Mount Waverley and Wheelers Hill have been transferred to Chisholm. Gains Hughesdale from Higgins, and gains strong Labor voting territory around Springvale and Noble Park from Bruce.
New ALP 11.2

Indi

Margin Notes on Changes
Old IND 1.4 MP Helen Haines (Independent)
Boundaries unchanged.
New IND 1.4

Isaacs

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 6.4 MP Mark Dreyfus (Labor)
Boundaries unchanged.
New ALP 6.4

Jagajaga

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 6.6 MP Kate Thwaites (Labor)
Loses Plenty, Diamond Creek and Wattle Glen to McEwen. Gains Eltham, Research and Kangaroo Ground from Menzies.
New ALP 5.9

Kooyong

Margin Notes on Changes
Old LIB 6.7 MP Josh Frydenberg (Liberal)
Gains part of Glen Iris from Higgins. Gains the rest of Surrey Hills from Chisholm. Note that at the 2019 election Labor finished third and the Liberal margin versus the Greens was 5.7%.
New LIB 6.4

La Trobe

Margin Notes on Changes
Old LIB 4.5 MP Jason Wood (Liberal)
Loses parts of Berwick and Narre Warren to Bruce. Gains Bunyip, Koo Wee Rup and areas south and east of Pakenham from Monash.
New LIB 5.5

Lalor

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 12.4 MP Joanne Ryan (Labor)
Gains parts of Truganina and Point Cook from Gellibrand in exchange for Williams Landing.
New ALP 12.4

Macnamara

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 6.2 MP Josh Burns (Labor)
Loses Windsor to Higgins.
New ALP 6.1

Mallee

Margin Notes on Changes
Old NAT 16.2 MP Anne Webster (National)
Gains Halls Gap and Stawell from Wannon.
New NAT 15.7

Maribyrnong

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 11.2 MP Bill Shorten (Labor)
Loses areas between the Maribyrnong River and Footscray to Fraser. In the south gains Kensington from Melbourne, and in the north gains Gladstone Park, Tullamarine and Keilor Park from Calwell.
New ALP 10.3

McEwen

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 5.0 MP Rob Mitchell (Labor)
In the west gains Woodend from Bendigo and in the east Plenty, Diamond Creek and Wattle Glan from Jagajaga. Loses Sunbury to the new seat of Hawke.
New ALP 5.3

Melbourne

2PP Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 17.1 MP Adam Bandt (Greens)
Note: Melbourne was won by the Greens at the 2019 election and had a Green margin of 21.8% versus the Liberal Party. A new Green margin has not been estimated but should be around the same value. The electorate gains Clifton Hill and parts of Brunswick East from Wills. Loses Kensington to Maribyrnong.
New ALP 17.8

Menzies

Margin Notes on Changes
Old LIB 7.5 MP Kevin Andrews (Liberal) (retiring)
Loses Eltham, Research and Kangaroo north of the Yarra to Jagajaga. Shifts south of Koonung Creek gaining parts of Box Hill, Blackburn, Nunawading and Mitcham from Chisholm and Deakin.
New LIB 7.0

Monash

Margin Notes on Changes
Old LIB 7.4 MP Russell Broadbent (Liberal)
Loses areas around KooWee Rup, Lang Lang and Bunyip to La Trobe.
New LIB 6.9

Nicholls

Margin Notes on Changes
Old NAT 20.0 MP Damian Drum (National)
Boundaries unchanged.
New NAT 20.0

Scullin

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 21.7 MP Andrew Giles (Labor)
Boundaries unchanged.
New ALP 21.7

Wannon

Margin Notes on Changes
Old LIB 10.4 MP Dan Tehan (Liberal)
Loses Halls Gap and Stawell to Mallee and parts of Golden Plains Council to Ballarat. Gains all of the Surf Coast south from Anglesea along with areas inland from Winchelsea.
New LIB 10.2

Wills

Margin Notes on Changes
Old ALP 25.9 MP Peter Khalil (Labor)
Loses part of Brunswick East to Melbourne. The Labor margin versus the Greens is 8.2%.
New ALP 25.7
Tags:

10 thoughts on “2021 Federal Redistribution – Boundaries Finalised for Victoria”

  1. Julie Catherine Hailey
    Reply

    Wow. Comprehensive analysis as always Anthony Green. I live in Wheelers Hill, between Wellington & Ferntree Gully Rds. Just shifted from Bruce to Hotham. Think we are now shifting again to Chisholm?

    COMMENT: Yes, Wheelers Hill has been transferred to Chisholm.

    1. sDrewth
      Reply

      Gee Bruce has gone on continental drift. It used to sit over Glen Waverley with Billy Snedden

      COMMENT: It’s been the best part of four decades since Snedden left parliament. Victoria lost a seat in both 1990 and 1996, and with static population in Melbourne’s east, Bruce moved south-east into Noble Park and Springvale in 1996 and became a notional Labor seat. What’s happened since is that population in Melbourne’s east has continued in relative decline, but there is rapid growth on Melbourne outer south-east fringe. Bruce has continued to slip south-east following that population growth.

  3. Andrew from 3040
    Reply

    Interesting that Maribyrnong has become longer and thinner … now stretching from Kensington to Gladstone Park! Chalk and cheese communities. And while the Labor vs Liberal margin may be smaller, the Greens now look to be further away from overhauling the Liberals and getting into second place … so it’s safer for Labor against them, despite Adam Bandt living within the boundaries.

    1. Caleb Jones
      Reply

      Victoria’s districts tend to religiously have river borders and also follow the spokes of our train network (I remember Antony commenting on this observation), the new Maribyrnong appears to slot in-between the Sunbury and Cragieburn train lines. (and these longer districts that push into the suburbs while following the train lines will increase the difficulty in the Greens trying to win these federal districts)

      COMMENT: The rivers tend to be council boundaries and the shape of Wills, Cooper and Maribyrnong are very much determined by the council boundaries. Council boundaries carry a lot of weight at redistributions as a measure of community of interest.

    2. Tom the first and best
      Reply

      The waterways between the Yarra and the Maribyrnong are strong natural boundaries, which the AEC seems to prefer to demographic boundaries, which create a set of 4 corridor electorates that combine inner and middle suburbs. Fraser and Gellibrand, to the west of the Maribyrnong//Yarra are also corridor electorates.

      COMMENT: And the waterways are also council boundaries which the AEC treats as being a community of interest unless argued otherwise.

  6. Isaac
    Reply

    How has the Macnamara redistribution helped the Greens chances in the electorate? I know there was some belief that the original distribution was going to improve their vote and decrease Labors, but has the final distribution changed that?

    COMMENT: I don’t have precise figures, but the polling places in the area transferred to Higgins had a higher Green vote than the rest of the electorate. Its removal would lower the Green vote in the new Macnamara, but only by a percentage point or two.

  7. Angelo Groza
    Reply

    What parts of Hampton Park will be moving into the Bruce electorate from Holt?

    COMMENT: None. It was a change in the draft boundaries that I hadn’t spotted was dropped on the final version. I’ve removed the change from the description.

  9. Graham
    Reply

    Hi Antony is there a mistake or am i reading Melbourne wrong (more likely i am reading it wrong)? The 2PP numbers is showing ALP rather than GRN. As it says Adam is the sitting MP so shouldn’t it be 2PP 17.1 ALP?

    COMMENT: Elections are decided on the basis of two-candidate preferred (2CP) vote, the final tally of votes between two contestants after all other candidates have been excluded and had their preference distributed. As the page states in the entry for Melbourne, Adam Bandt won Melbourne with a Green 2CP margin of 21.8% versus the Liberal Party.

    Electorates have another value, the 2-party preferred (2PP) vote, a final tally after preferences between Labor and Coalition candidates. It is done as a separate count after the election to produce a national 2PP figure. Electorates and elections are not decided by the 2PP, which is more a bookkeeping entry positioning electorates on a left to right scale. However, I have used the 2PP value for every polling place and vote type to re-calculate the redistribution for all seats, including non-2PP contests like Melbourne. The calculation was done by assigning 2PP votes to what are called Statistical Areas (SA1s), and then adding up the SA1s in each new electorate. I don’t have the time to re-write my Python code to do the same manipulation for primary votes or 2CP.

    I don’t have a new Green 2CP margin for Melbourne but, as I state in the post, I expect it to be around the same value as on the old boundaries.

Leave a Reply