2019 SA Senate Election Part 2 – the Preference Distribution

Part 1 of my post on the 2019 SA Senate election analysed how voters completed their ballot papers under the new Senate system, how preferences flowed between parties and what was the impact of how-to-votes.

This post will be more descriptive in summarising the formal distribution of preferences. It highlights major exclusions and distributions during the count and comments on differences with how the count might have unfolded had the abolished group voting ticket system still been in place.

The Liberal and Labor parties polled more than two quotas on first preferences, ensuring two seats for each party. The Greens with a partial quota of 0.7639, and the Liberal Party with 0.6467 beyond two quotas, were well ahead in the race to fill the final two seats.

The six Senators elected are listed below, followed by an explanation of changes since the 2016 election.

• Re-elected 1 – Anne Ruston (Liberal) at Count 1
• Re-Elected 2 – Alex Gallacher (Labor) at Count 1
• Re-elected 3 – David Fawcett (Liberal) at Count 2
• Elected 4 – Marielle Smith (Labor) at Count 3
• Re-elected 5 – Sarah Hanson-Young (Greens) at Count 165
• Elected 6 – Alex Antic (Liberal) at Count 177

After the 2016 double dissolution election, the Senators elected in positions seven to 12 were allocated three-year terms expiring in 2019. In South Australia, the party affiliations of the second six Senators at the time of the 2016 election were Liberal two and one each representing Labor, the Nick Xenophon Team, Greens and Family First. Changes in party representation converted those numbers to Liberal three and one each for Labor, Greens and an Independent by the time of the 2019 election.

With the Liberal Party polling less than three quotas, Senator Lucy Gichuhi was incapable of election from fourth on the Liberal ticket. In 2017, Gichuhi had filled a vacancy caused by the departure of Family First’s Bob Day. He had resigned in November 2016, but the High Court later ruled he was disqualified to be a candidate at the 2016 election owing to a financial relationship with the Commonwealth. Gichuhi was elected to Day’s seat on re-count, but sat as an Independent after Family First merged with the newly formed Australian Conservatives. Gichuhi joined the Liberal Party in February 2018, but was pre-selected to the unwinnable fourth position on the Liberal Senate ticket.

Liberal Alex Antic entered the Senate in place of Gichuhi after being elected from third place on the Liberal ticket. Labor’s Marielle Smith was also elected to the Senate for the first time, Labor having only one seat to defend at the 2019 election.

Independent Senator Tim Storer did not contest the 2019 election. Storer had been fourth on the Nick Xenophon Team ticket at the 2016 election. When Xenophon resigned to contest the 2018 South Australian election, the party over-looked Storer and chose Rex Patrick to fill the casual vacancy. Storer resigned from the party, but was later elected by re-count after Skye Kakoschke-Moore was disqualified for holding foreign citizenship. Once in the Senate, Storer registered a political party, but announced in April 2019 that he would not contest the election.

Table 1 below sets out first preference votes by candidates and party. A total and percentage of votes is recorded for each candidate, along with a total and percentage for ticket votes cast using the group voting square. For each party/group there is a total of votes, a percentage and the total votes expressed as quotas. The final column shows ticket votes as a percentage of the group total.

Parties are listed in descending party vote order with the party name and ballot paper column (A, B, C etc) shown. Candidates are shown in the order candidates were listed in each group on the ballot paper.

Table 1 – First Preference Tally

Group – Party/Candidates	Votes	% Votes	Quotas	% Ticket
G – Liberal Party	413,957	37.81	2.6467	95.43
Ticket Votes	395,058	36.08
* RUSTON, Anne	13,402	1.22
* FAWCETT, David	2,256	0.21
ANTIC, Alex	687	0.06
* GICHUHI, Lucy	2,554	0.23
O – Labor Party	332,399	30.36	2.1253	94.73
Ticket Votes	314,876	28.76
* GALLACHER, Alex	13,185	1.20
SMITH, Marielle	1,124	0.10
GORE, Emily	1,552	0.14
HARRISON, Larissa	1,662	0.15
J – The Greens	119,470	10.91	0.7639	82.78
Ticket Votes	98,903	9.03
* HANSON-YOUNG, Sarah	18,126	1.66
SUMNER, Major Moogy	1,964	0.18
ROZITISOLDS, Gwydion	122	0.01
SETO, Robyn	355	0.03
E – One Nation	53,314	4.87	0.3409	93.26
Ticket Votes	49,718	4.54
GAME, Jennifer	3,385	0.31
ILLIES, Emma	211	0.02
K – United Australia	33,191	3.03	0.2122	94.82
Ticket Votes	31,472	2.87
REES, Kristian	1,491	0.14
KOVACS, Kerry	97	0.01
HOSKIN, Sharon Lee	131	0.01
C – Centre Alliance	28,416	2.60	0.1817	81.97
Ticket Votes	23,294	2.13
KAKOSCHKE-MOORE, Skye	4,878	0.45
BOSSIE, Craig	244	0.02
I – HEMP	23,265	2.13	0.1487	91.88
Ticket Votes	21,375	1.95
ADAMS, Angela	1,716	0.16
IVERSEN, Matthew	174	0.02
P – Animal Justice	20,445	1.87	0.1307	91.53
Ticket Votes	18,713	1.71
PFEIFFER, Louise	1,594	0.15
DAVEY, Wendy	138	0.01
L – Australian Conservatives	16,145	1.47	0.1032	77.03
Ticket Votes	12,437	1.14
LAMBERT, Rikki	3,574	0.33
TEUSNER, Carl	134	0.01
A – Great Australian Party	12,698	1.16	0.0812	84.71
Ticket Votes	10,757	0.98
ALDRIDGE, Mark	1,669	0.15
MATTHEWS, Gary	272	0.02
M – Shooters Fishers and Farmers	12,003	1.10	0.0767	90.74
Ticket Votes	10,892	0.99
HAHN, John	1,018	0.09
KIRK, Wayne Lawrence	93	0.01
B – Fraser Anning’s CNP	7,829	0.72	0.0501	79.81
Ticket Votes	6,248	0.57
MANUEL, Peter	1,422	0.13
DWYER, Tim	159	0.01
N – Liberal Democrats	7,345	0.67	0.0470	93.17
Ticket Votes	6,843	0.63
RANSLEY, Kimbra Louise	410	0.04
HUMBLE, Stephen	92	0.01
D – Australian Democrats	6,497	0.59	0.0415	84.76
Ticket Votes	5,507	0.50
BURROW, Tim	864	0.08
CASTRIQUE, Andrew	126	0.01
H – Sustainable Australia	5,295	0.48	0.0339	85.97
Ticket Votes	4,552	0.42
DAVIES, Graham	618	0.06
COLEMAN, Robyn	125	0.01
F – Citizens Electoral Council	1,611	0.15	0.0103	84.73
Ticket Votes	1,365	0.12
ALLWOOD, Sean	214	0.02
SIEBERT, Paul Graham	32	0.00
Ungrouped	943	0.09	0.0060	0.00
LESIW, Michael	425	0.04
O’DONNELL, Brett	215	0.02
COX, Henry	303	0.03
Formal	1,094,823			92.44
Informal	39,733	3.50
Total / Turnout	1,134,556
Quota	156,404

Counts 2-5 distributed the surplus votes of the elected Labor and Liberal candidates. At this point no further candidates had a quota, and the count proceeded by successively excluding the lowest polling candidates.

The count had started with totals for 42 candidates across 16 groups and the ungrouped column. Four candidates were elected by Count 5, another 23 candidates excluded by Count 119. Fifteen candidates remained in the count, the third listed Liberal and Labor candidates, and the lead candidates for the 12 groups still represented in the count.

Table 2 below shows the transfers (change in party total) since Count 1, along with the total after Count 119 for each candidate expressed as a vote total, a percentage of vote and a quota. The change in total for the Liberal and Labor candidates excludes the two quotas set aside with the two elected Senators. The one party excluded by this point, the Citizens Electoral Council (Group F) had been excluded at Counts 100-104, ahead of the exclusion of second remaining candidates on the Labor, Green and Liberal tickets.

As is normal to this point in the count, both the Labor and Liberal groups had lost votes since Count 1 due to votes leaking out of the party tickets on the election of the first two candidates.

Table 2 – At the End of Count 119

Candidate (Group-Party)	Transfer	Votes	% Votes	Quota
HANSON-YOUNG, Sarah (J-GRN)	+908	120,378	11.00	0.7697
ANTIC, Alex (G-LIB)	-2,920	98,229	8.97	0.6280
GAME, Jennifer (E-ONP)	+541	53,855	4.92	0.3443
REES, Kristian (K-UAP)	+478	33,669	3.08	0.2153
KAKOSCHKE-MOORE, Skye (C-CA)	+468	28,884	2.64	0.1847
ADAMS, Angela (I-HEMP)	+368	23,633	2.16	0.1511
PFEIFFER, Louise (P-AJP)	+445	20,890	1.91	0.1336
GORE, Emily (O-ALP)	-1,061	18,530	1.69	0.1185
LAMBERT, Rikki (L-CON)	+1,605	17,750	1.62	0.1135
ALDRIDGE, Mark (A-GAP)	+59	12,757	1.17	0.0816
HAHN, John (M-SFF)	+223	12,226	1.12	0.0782
MANUEL, Peter (B-FACNP)	+92	7,921	0.72	0.0506
RANSLEY, Kimbra Louise (N-LDP)	+267	7,612	0.70	0.0487
BURROW, Tim (D-DEM)	+271	6,768	0.62	0.0433
DAVIES, Graham (H-SAP)	+447	5,742	0.52	0.0367
ALLWOOD, Sean (F-CEC)	-1,611	0
Ungrouped	-943	0
Exhausted	+145	145	0.01	0.0009

Table 3 shows Counts 120 to 129 and the distribution of preferences for Graham Davies (Sustainable Australia) and Tim Burrow (Australian Democrats). Preferences flowed 23.7% to the Greens,
12.4% to Liberal and 10.3% to HEMP.

Table 3 – At the End of Count 129

Candidate (Group-Party)	Transfer	Votes	% Votes	Quota
HANSON-YOUNG, Sarah (J-GRN)	+2,968	123,346	11.27	0.7886
ANTIC, Alex (G-LIB)	+1,552	99,781	9.11	0.6380
GAME, Jennifer (E-ONP)	+969	54,824	5.01	0.3505
REES, Kristian (K-UAP)	+453	34,122	3.12	0.2182
KAKOSCHKE-MOORE, Skye (C-CA)	+1,038	29,922	2.73	0.1913
ADAMS, Angela (I-HEMP)	+1,293	24,926	2.28	0.1594
PFEIFFER, Louise (P-AJP)	+847	21,737	1.99	0.1390
GORE, Emily (O-ALP)	+1,233	19,763	1.81	0.1264
LAMBERT, Rikki (L-CON)	+443	18,193	1.66	0.1163
ALDRIDGE, Mark (A-GAP)	+524	13,281	1.21	0.0849
HAHN, John (M-SFF)	+284	12,510	1.14	0.0800
MANUEL, Peter (B-FACNP)	+160	8,081	0.74	0.0517
RANSLEY, Kimbra Louise (N-LDP)	+310	7,922	0.72	0.0507
BURROW, Tim (D-DEM)	-6,768	0
DAVIES, Graham (H-SAP)	-5,742	0
Exhausted	+431	576	0.05	0.0037

Table 4 shows the distribution of preferences from five right of centre parties, Australian Conservatives, the Great Australian Party, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party and the Liberal Democrats.

Under the now abolished group voting ticket system, these five parties might have swapped preferences lifting the beneficiary to around 60,000 votes and in the race for the final seat. Without the ability to control preferences, voters made their own choices sending strong flows of preferences to the Liberal Party and One Nation.

In total preferences for the five parties flowed 24.9% Liberal, 21.9% One Nation, 12.0% UAP and 10.1% Centre Alliance. 3.8% of preferences exhausted. Australian Conservative and Liberal Democrat preferences favoured the Liberal Party, the other three parties favoured One Nation.

Table 4 – At the End of Count 154

Candidate (Group-Party)	Transfer	Votes	% Votes	Quota
HANSON-YOUNG, Sarah (J-GRN)	+3,576	126,922	11.59	0.8115
ANTIC, Alex (G-LIB)	+14,921	114,702	10.48	0.7334
GAME, Jennifer (E-ONP)	+13,144	67,968	6.21	0.4346
REES, Kristian (K-UAP)	+7,194	41,316	3.77	0.2642
KAKOSCHKE-MOORE, Skye (C-CA)	+6,088	36,010	3.29	0.2302
ADAMS, Angela (I-HEMP)	+4,304	29,230	2.67	0.1869
PFEIFFER, Louise (P-AJP)	+3,508	25,245	2.31	0.1614
GORE, Emily (O-ALP)	+4,972	24,735	2.26	0.1581
LAMBERT, Rikki (L-CON)	-18,193	0
ALDRIDGE, Mark (A-GAP)	-13,281	0
HAHN, John (M-SFF)	-12,510	0
MANUEL, Peter (B-FACNP)	-8,081	0
RANSLEY, Kimbra Louise (N-LDP)	-7,922	0
Exhausted	+2,298	2,874	0.26	0.0184

Table 5 shows the distribution of preferences on the exclusion of the third placed Labor candidate Emily Gore at counts 155-159. Around 60% of Gore’s votes were Labor ticket votes. On exclusion, 48.0% of preferences flowed to the Greens, 13.9% to Animal Justice in the next column, 12.9% to the Liberal Party. 3.2% of votes exhausted.

Table 5 – At the End of Count 159

Candidate (Group-Party)	Transfer	Votes	% Votes	Quota
HANSON-YOUNG, Sarah (J-GRN)	+11,863	138,785	12.68	0.8873
ANTIC, Alex (G-LIB)	+3,202	117,904	10.77	0.7538
GAME, Jennifer (E-ONP)	+1,484	69,452	6.34	0.4441
REES, Kristian (K-UAP)	+1,749	43,065	3.93	0.2753
KAKOSCHKE-MOORE, Skye (C-CA)	+1,005	37,015	3.38	0.2367
ADAMS, Angela (I-HEMP)	+1,433	30,663	2.80	0.1960
PFEIFFER, Louise (P-AJP)	+3,218	28,463	2.60	0.1820
GORE, Emily (O-ALP)	-24,735	0
Exhausted	+789	3,663	0.33	0.0234

Table 6 shows preference flows on the exclusions of Louise Pfeiffer (Animal Justice) and Angela Adams (HEMP) at counts 160-169. With Labor already excluded, preferences flowed 45.7% to the Greens, 14.5% to One Nation, 12.7% to United Australia, 6.9% Centre Alliance and 9.1% exhausted. At this point the Green’s Sarah Hanson-Young was declared elected.

Table 6 – At the End of Count 169

Candidate (Group-Party)	Transfer	Votes	% Votes	Quota
HANSON-YOUNG, Sarah (J-GRN)	+27,022	165,807	15.14	1.0601
ANTIC, Alex (G-LIB)	+7,508	125,412	11.46	0.8018
GAME, Jennifer (E-ONP)	+8,562	78,014	7.13	0.4988
REES, Kristian (K-UAP)	+6,608	49,673	4.54	0.3176
KAKOSCHKE-MOORE, Skye (C-CA)	+4,088	41,103	3.75	0.2628
ADAMS, Angela (I-HEMP)	-30,663	0
PFEIFFER, Louise (P-AJP)	-28,463	0
Exhausted	+5,362	9,025	0.82	0.0577

Count 170 excluded the surplus votes of Sara Hanson-Young. Labor had been excluded by this point and Green preferences flowed 39.6% to the Centre Alliance, 24.0% Liberal, 9.0% United Australia, 6.4% One Nation and 21.0% exhausted. About a quarter of the votes distributed in this surplus had been cast for parties other than the Greens.

Table 7 – At the End of Count 170

Candidate (Group-Party)	Transfer	Votes	% Votes	Quota
HANSON-YOUNG, Sarah (J-GRN)	-9,403	156,404	14.29	1.0000
ANTIC, Alex (G-LIB)	+2,253	127,665	11.66	0.8163
GAME, Jennifer (E-ONP)	+606	78,620	7.18	0.5027
REES, Kristian (K-UAP)	+844	50,517	4.61	0.3230
KAKOSCHKE-MOORE, Skye (C-CA)	+3,723	44,826	4.09	0.2866
Exhausted	+1,974	10,999	1.00	0.0703

The Centre Alliance had consistently attracted fewer preferences than other parties still in the race. Without Nick Xenophon’s name attached to the party’s name, the Centre Alliance had a lower profile than the Liberal Party, One Nation and United Australia. Preferences on the exclusion of Kakoschke-Moore flowed 37.8% to the Liberal Party, 21.2% One Nation, 10.5% United Australia and 30.6% exhausted.

This flow of preferences put the Liberal total ahead of the combined total of votes for One Nation and United Australia. Liberal candidates Alex Antic was now guaranteed to win the sixth and final seat.

Table 8 – At the End of Count 176

Candidate (Group-Party)	Transfer	Votes	% Votes	Quota
ANTIC, Alex (G-LIB)	+16,935	144,600	13.21	0.9245
GAME, Jennifer (E-ONP)	+9,489	88,109	8.05	0.5633
REES, Kristian (K-UAP)	+4,686	55,203	5.04	0.3530
KAKOSCHKE-MOORE, Skye (C-CA)	-44,826	0
Exhausted	+13,736	24,735	2.26	0.1581

The distribution of all full value votes for UAP candidate Kristian Rees were enough to put Alex Antic over quota to win the final seat. Reduced transfer value ballot papers held by Rees were not distributed. 42.1% of preferences flowed to Liberal, 37.7% to One Nation and 20.2% exhausted.

Table 9 – At the End of Count 177

Candidate (Group-Party)	Transfer	Votes	% Votes	Quota
ANTIC, Alex (G-LIB)	+21,945	166,545	15.21	1.0648
GAME, Jennifer (E-ONP)	+19,639	107,748	9.84	0.6889
REES, Kristian (K-UAP)	-52,116	3,087	0.28	0.0197
Exhausted	+10,532	35,267	3.22	0.2255

The distribution of preferences did not change the order candidates were placed in at Count 6, demonstrating again that the Senate’s new electoral system gives much greater weight to the first preference votes received by candidates and parties.