2019 Northern Territory Redistribution

(UPDATE: My guide to the 2020 Northern Territory Election has now been published on the ABC Election website.)

The Northern Territory goes to the polls on 22 August this year with the Gunner Labor government seeking re-election against the backdrop of a stagnant local economy and problems with the Territory’s public finances.

While this will be a tough environment for a first term government, Labor is helped by the weakened state of the opposition Country Liberal Party after its spectacular ejection from office in 2016.

The 2020 election will be fought on new electoral boundaries released last September. On paper the boundaries cost Labor a seat, but also boost the party’s prospects in two marginal seats.

But margins matter little in the Northern Territory given the average enrolment per electorate is only 5,500. This creates geographically huge electorates in the sparsely populated outback, but tiny seats of a few dozen streets in Darwin and Palmerston. Candidate profile is as important as party vote in determining who wins seats in the Northern Territory, especially after redistributions.

The 2016 Result

The defeat of the Henderson government in 2012 ending 11 years of Labor administration looked to have restored the old order. Labor was back in opposition and the once dominant Country Liberal Party (CLP) back in office.

The 2012 election delivered the Country Liberals 16 of the 25 Legislative Assembly seats. Labor was left with just eight seats, the final seat held by Independent Gerry Wood.

But anyone familiar with NT politics could see the electoral basis of the CLP’s 2012 victory was very different from its long period in office from 1974 to 2001. Where once the CLP’s grip on suburban seats in Darwin kept it in office, victory in 2012 was by gaining the remote seats of Arafura, Arnhem, Namatjira and Stuart. The economic and social problems of the majority Aboriginal population in these remote seats was very different from those in relatively affluent urban seats.

These differences eventually tore the CLP government apart, producing coups and counter coups, a revolving door ministry, and the departure of enough members to force the government into minority. If you want to know the lurid details of the CLP government that Chief Minister Adam Giles took to the polls in 2016, check out my preview of the 2016 NT election.

The table below summarises the results of the 2016 election and show the thrashing dished out to the CLP by voters. The swing elected Labor to office with 18 of the 25 Assembly seats while the CLP was reduced to just two seats. Five Independents were elected, three of whom had past links to and scores to settle with the Country Liberals.

2016 Northern Territory Election Result

Note that seat changes are compared to the 2012 election and do not take account of members switching party. I’ve prepared a statistical summary of the 2016 election results that you can find here.

Compared to the 2012 election, the CLP lost 14 of its 16 seats. Labor won back all the remote districts it had lost, won rare victories in Palmerston, and broke into Alice Springs for the first time by defeating Chief Minister Adam Giles in his seat of Braitling. Labor astonished by also winning Katherine.

Two of the four CLP defectors were re-elected, Kezia Purick in Goyder and Robyn Lambley in Araluen. Joining them on the cross bench were former Chief Minister Terry Mills, winning back his old seat of Blain as an Independent, and Yinglya Mark Guyula, who narrowly defeated Labor’s Deputy Leader Lynne Walker in Nhulunbuy.

Since the 2016 election, Labor has suffered its own defections with Ken Vowles (Johnston), Jeff Collins (Fong Lim) and Scott McConnell (Stuart) moving to the crossbench. Labor will soon face a by-election in the northern Darwin seat of Johnston with Ken Vowles resigning, while McConnell will not contest the next election.

Terry Mills, elected as an Independent in 2016, has since founded a new party, the Territory Alliance.

The new boundaries mainly tinker with existing lines, except in the case of Namatjira. Rapid enrolment growth in Alice Springs has pulled Namatjira into more conservative voting urban areas of Alice Springs while transferring Labor voting remote districts into other electorates. Labor MP Chansey Paech won Namatjira with a margin of 8.5% in 2016, but on the new boundaries the seat appears to have a 2.0% CLP margin. That doesn’t mean Paech stands no chance of holding the seat. Incumbency is a powerful force in NT politics.

Labor’s position is strengthened in its two surprise gains in 2016, the Labor margin in Braiting boosted from 0.3% to 3.0%, and Katherine from 0.5% to 1.6%. Even with this boost, Labor’s poor past record in Alice Springs and Katherine suggests it will be hard for Labor to hold both seats.

Ignoring party resignations, and noting that Namatjira notionally switches from Labor to CLP, the electoral pendulum for the next election is set out below.

Electoral Pendulum for 2020 Election

Of the 17 seats listed on the Labor side of the pendulum, the first five are seats that Labor has only won at landslide elections. A reversion to more normal voting patterns would see Labor lose these seats, reducing the government to only 12 seats. Such a scenario makes the seats of Namatjira and Mulka (formerly Nhulunbuy) critically important.

Labor pre-selection for Namatjira could be crucial. Current MP Chansey Paech has expressed a desire to switch to Gwoja (formerly Stuart), but the Labor Party might prefer him to stay and fight to retain Namatjira on its new boundaries.

In Mulka, former Labor Deputy Leader Lynne Walker will try to avenge her eight vote defeat by Independent Yinglya Mark Guyula in 2016.

Two other seats to watch are Daly and Nelson. In Daly, the CLP’s Gary Higgins is retiring and the seat will be vulnerable given the size of his personal vote in Wadeye at the 2016 election. In Nelson, the CLP should regain this safe conservative seat with the retirement of Gerry Wood, though the area has a long history of electing Independents.

If Labor loses its majority in August, a hung parliament becomes a strong possibility given the size of the cross bench.

The table below sets out the old and new margin in each seat with a brief summary of the major change brought about by the redistribution.

Summary of Redistribution Changes