This post is unfinished business from the 2019 Federal election, setting out a post-election pendulum of the results. A pdf version arranged on two sides of an A4 page can be found via this link.
While this pendulum is current on publication in January 2020, new electoral boundaries will see it superseded before the next election, due to be held between August 2021 and May 2022.
Redistributions look certain to be conducted in Victoria (gaining a seat to 39) and Western Australia (losing a seat to 15). There could also be redistributions in the ACT and Northern Territory depending on whether the Territory representation rules are changed before the next election.
In the pendulum below I have tried to display both two-party preferred and two-candidate preferred margins for all 151 seats.
Of the 151 contests in 2019, 136 finished as traditional two-party preferred races between candidates representing Labor and the Liberal/National Coalition. Another 16 finished as two-candidate preferred races where either Labor or the Coalition were excluded during the distribution of preferences.
Six of the 16 two-candidate preferred contests were won by minor parties or independents, while in the the other 10 contests, minor parties or independents finished second.
To explain the pendulum layout –
- Seats with Coalition two-party preferred majorities are shown on the left-hand side of the pendulum, Labor majorities on the right, with seats won by minor parties and independents shown bottom right.
- The six electorates won by minor parties and independents have been listed twice. They have been listed according to their two-party preferred margin in the Coalition and Labor columns in bold. The actual two-candidate preferred margin is listed at the bottom of the right hand column under ‘Others’. Some of the two-party preferred margins in these seats are meaningless. For instance, it is highly unlikely that either Mayo or Warringah would have produced such close result in real two-party contest between Liberal and Labor candidates.
- The margin for each seat is calculated by subtracting 50 from the winning candidate’s percentage vote after the distribution of preferences. So if the winning candidate polled 56.1% of the vote after preferences, the margin is 6.1%. All margins have been rounded UP to the nearest 0.1%.
- Overall there were 81 electorates with Coalition 2-party preferred majorities, the Coalition winning 77, and 70 with Labor 2-party preferred majorities, winning 68.
- Figures in brackets in Labor and Coalition held seats (eg Kooyong) indicate actual two-candidate preferred margins between the winning party and a minor party or independent.
- The seats won by the LNP in Queensland are shown according to which party room the elected member joined. Of the 23 LNP members elected, 17 joined the Liberal party room and six the National. This gives overall Coalition numbers of Liberal 61 and National 16.
- Underlining indicates seats that changed party status at the election.
- The seats of Corangamite and Dunkley are marked with ‘**’, because while both seats saw Labor candidates defeat sitting Liberal MPs, both seats had become notional Labor seats in the pre-election Victorian redistribution.
- Going into the election, taking account of by-elections and redistributions, the Coalition held 73 seats, Labor 72, with six minor party and independent MPs. (You can review the pre-election landscape in my 2019 election preview, and check the electorate margins via the pre-election pendulum.)
- The Coalition gained Bass and Braddon from Labor in Tasmania, Longman and Herbert from Labor in Queensland, gained Lindsay in exchange for losing Gilmore to Labor in NSW, and re-gained former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth from independent Dr Kerryn Phelps south of the harbour, but north of the harbour lost former Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah to Independent Zali Steggall.
- The Coalition polled 51.5% of the national two-party preferred vote in 2019, a swing towards the government of 1.2%.
- On the post election pendulum, a loss of two seats on a uniform swing of 0.6% would be enough to deprive the government of its majority.
- Labor would need eight seats on a uniform swing of 3.2% for a majority in its own right.
- A uniform swing of between 0.6% and 3.2% would mean negotiating with the cross bench to form government.
- Swings are rarely so uniform that a given national swing can be guaranteed to deliver a suggested tiny majority.
- Party codes: LIB – Liberal, NAT – National, ALP – Labor, GRN – Greens, IND – Independent, KAP Katter’s Australian Party, ONP – Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, CA – Centre Alliance.
The 2019 Post-Election Pendulum
|Coalition (77 – LIB 61 NAT 16)||Labor Seats (68)|
|LIB 0.5||Bass TAS||ALP 0.2||Macquarie NSW|
|LIB 0.6||Chisholm VIC||ALP 0.7||Lilley QLD|
|LIB 1.4||Boothby SA||ALP 0.9||Cowan WA|
|LIB 2.2||Warringah NSW (IND HELD)||ALP 0.9||Eden-Monaro NSW|
|LIB 2.6||Mayo SA (CA HELD)||ALP 1.1||Corangamite VIC **|
|LIB 2.7||Swan WA||ALP 1.3||Blair QLD|
|LIB 3.1||Braddon TAS||ALP 1.5||Dobell NSW|
|LIB 3.2||Reid NSW||ALP 2.0||Moreton QLD|
|LIB 3.3||Longman QLD||ALP 2.7||Gilmore NSW|
|LIB 3.9||Higgins VIC||ALP 2.8||Dunkley VIC **|
|LIB 4.2||Leichhardt QLD||ALP 2.8||Greenway NSW|
|LIB 4.3||Robertson NSW||ALP 2.9||Griffith QLD|
|LIB 4.5||La Trobe VIC||ALP 3.0||Hunter NSW|
|LIB 4.7||Dickson QLD||ALP 3.1||Solomon NT|
|LIB 4.7||Casey VIC||ALP 3.6||Parramatta NSW|
|LIB 4.8||Deakin VIC||ALP 4.1||Richmond NSW|
|LIB 5.0||Brisbane QLD||ALP 4.5||Shortland NSW|
|LIB 5.1||Lindsay NSW||ALP 5.0||Perth WA|
|LIB 5.4||Hasluck WA||ALP 5.0||Burt WA|
|LIB 5.7||Flinders VIC||ALP 5.1||McEwen VIC|
|LIB 5.7||Stirling WA||ALP 5.1||Paterson NSW|
|LIB 6.1||Ryan QLD||ALP 5.2||Lyons TAS|
|LIB 6.3||Banks NSW||ALP 5.5||Lingiari NT|
|LIB 6.7||Kooyong VIC (5.7 v GRN)||ALP 5.5||Werriwa NSW|
|LIB 6.9||Sturt SA||ALP 6.0||Hotham VIC|
|LIB 7.0||Bennelong NSW||ALP 6.3||Macnamara VIC|
|LIB 7.4||Monash VIC||ALP 6.4||Oxley QLD|
|LIB 7.5||Bonner QLD||ALP 6.5||Isaacs VIC|
|LIB 7.6||Pearce WA||ALP 6.5||Rankin QLD|
|LIB 7.6||Menzies VIC||ALP 6.6||Hindmarsh SA|
|LIB 7.8||Goldstein VIC||ALP 6.6||Jagajaga VIC|
|LIB 8.4||Herbert QLD||ALP 6.7||McMahon NSW|
|LIB 8.4||Petrie QLD||ALP 6.7||Brand WA|
|LIB 8.6||Forde QLD||ALP 7.0||Fremantle WA|
|NAT 8.7||Flynn QLD||ALP 7.6||Bean ACT|
|LIB 9.3||North Sydney NSW||ALP 8.2||Adelaide SA|
|NAT 9.5||Page NSW||ALP 8.4||Macarthur NSW|
|LIB 9.9||Hughes NSW||ALP 8.7||Holt VIC|
|LIB 9.9||Wentworth NSW (1.4 v IND)||ALP 8.9||Kingsford Smith NSW|
|LIB 10.2||Aston VIC||ALP 9.1||Bendigo VIC|
|LIB 10.3||Bowman QLD||ALP 9.5||Barton NSW|
|LIB 10.4||Wannon VIC||ALP 9.8||Makin SA|
|LIB 11.5||Tangney WA||ALP 10.4||Corio VIC|
|LIB 11.6||Canning WA||ALP 10.6||Fenner ACT|
|LIB 11.7||Moore WA||ALP 11.0||Whitlam NSW|
|NAT 11.9||Cowper NSW (6.8 v IND)||ALP 11.0||Ballarat VIC|
|LIB 12.2||McPherson QLD||ALP 11.3||Maribyrnong VIC|
|NAT 12.4||Capricornia QLD||ALP 12.0||Kingston SA|
|LIB 12.7||Fisher QLD||ALP 12.3||Franklin TAS|
|LIB 12.8||Indi VIC (IND HELD)||ALP 12.4||Chifley NSW|
|LIB 13.0||Hume NSW||ALP 12.5||Lalor VIC|
|NAT 13.2||Wide Bay QLD||ALP 13.5||Cunningham NSW|
|LIB 13.3||Mackellar NSW||ALP 13.6||Watson NSW|
|NAT 13.3||Calare NSW||ALP 13.9||Newcastle NSW|
|LIB 13.4||Grey SA||ALP 14.0||Fowler NSW|
|LIB 13.5||Fairfax QLD||ALP 14.2||Spence SA|
|LIB 14.2||Fadden QLD||ALP 14.2||Bruce VIC|
|LIB 14.4||Curtin WA||ALP 14.2||Fraser VIC|
|LIB 14.5||O’Connor WA||ALP 14.8||Blaxland NSW|
|NAT 14.6||Hinkler QLD||ALP 14.9||Gellibrand VIC|
|LIB 14.6||Kennedy QLD (KAP HELD)||ALP 15.4||Gorton VIC|
|LIB 14.6||Forrest WA||ALP 16.2||Clark TAS (IND HELD)|
|LIB 14.6||Wright QLD||ALP 17.1||Melbourne VIC (GRN HELD)|
|NAT 14.7||Dawson QLD||ALP 17.1||Canberra ACT|
|LIB 14.8||Durack WA||ALP 18.7||Sydney NSW|
|NAT 15.2||Lyne NSW||ALP 18.8||Calwell VIC|
|LIB 15.4||Moncrieff QLD||ALP 21.7||Scullin VIC|
|LIB 15.7||Berowra NSW||ALP 23.9||Grayndler NSW (16.3 v GRN)|
|NAT 16.3||Mallee VIC||ALP 25.9||Wills VIC (8.2 v GRN)|
|LIB 16.6||Bradfield NSW||ALP 26.4||Cooper VIC (14.7 v GRN)|
|NAT 16.7||Gippsland VIC|
|NAT 17.0||Parkes NSW||OTHERS (6)|
|NAT 17.7||New England NSW (14.4 v IND)||Margin||Seat – State|
|LIB 18.7||Mitchell NSW||IND 1.4||Indi VIC (v LIB)|
|LIB 19.0||Barker SA||CA 5.2||Mayo SA (v LIB)|
|LIB 19.1||Cook NSW||IND 7.3||Warringah NSW (v LIB)|
|NAT 19.5||Riverina NSW||KAP 13.4||Kennedy QLD (v LNP)|
|LIB 19.9||Farrer NSW (11.0 v IND)||GRN 21.9||Melbourne VIC (v LNP)|
|NAT 20.1||Nicholls VIC||IND 22.2||Clark TAS (v ALP)|
|LIB 20.5||Groom QLD|
|NAT 25.5||Maranoa QLD (22.5 v ONP)|