2019 Federal Election – Post-Election Pendulum

This post is unfinished business from the 2019 Federal election, setting out a post-election pendulum of the results. A pdf version arranged on two sides of an A4 page can be found via this link.

While this pendulum is current on publication in January 2020, new electoral boundaries will see it superseded before the next election, due to be held between August 2021 and May 2022.

Redistributions look certain to be conducted in Victoria (gaining a seat to 39) and Western Australia (losing a seat to 15). There could also be redistributions in the ACT and Northern Territory depending on whether the Territory representation rules are changed before the next election.

In the pendulum below I have tried to display both two-party preferred and two-candidate preferred margins for all 151 seats.

Of the 151 contests in 2019, 136 finished as traditional two-party preferred races between candidates representing Labor and the Liberal/National Coalition. Another 16 finished as two-candidate preferred races where either Labor or the Coalition were excluded during the distribution of preferences.

Six of the 16 two-candidate preferred contests were won by minor parties or independents, while in the the other 10 contests, minor parties or independents finished second.

To explain the pendulum layout –

  • Seats with Coalition two-party preferred majorities are shown on the left-hand side of the pendulum, Labor majorities on the right, with seats won by minor parties and independents shown bottom right.
  • The six electorates won by minor parties and independents have been listed twice. They have been listed according to their two-party preferred margin in the Coalition and Labor columns in bold. The actual two-candidate preferred margin is listed at the bottom of the right hand column under ‘Others’. Some of the two-party preferred margins in these seats are meaningless. For instance, it is highly unlikely that either Mayo or Warringah would have produced such close result in real two-party contest between Liberal and Labor candidates.
  • The margin for each seat is calculated by subtracting 50 from the winning candidate’s percentage vote after the distribution of preferences. So if the winning candidate polled 56.1% of the vote after preferences, the margin is 6.1%. All margins have been rounded UP┬áto the nearest 0.1%.
  • Overall there were 81 electorates with Coalition 2-party preferred majorities, the Coalition winning 77, and 70 with Labor 2-party preferred majorities, winning 68.
  • Figures in brackets in Labor and Coalition held seats (eg Kooyong) indicate actual two-candidate preferred margins between the winning party and a minor party or independent.
  • The seats won by the LNP in Queensland are shown according to which party room the elected member joined. Of the 23 LNP members elected, 17 joined the Liberal party room and six the National. This gives overall Coalition numbers of Liberal 61 and National 16.
  • Underlining indicates seats that changed party status at the election.
  • The seats of Corangamite and Dunkley are marked with ‘**’, because while both seats saw Labor candidates defeat sitting Liberal MPs, both seats had become notional Labor seats in the pre-election Victorian redistribution.
  • Going into the election, taking account of by-elections and redistributions, the Coalition held 73 seats, Labor 72, with six minor party and independent MPs. (You can review the pre-election landscape in my 2019 election preview, and check the electorate margins via the pre-election pendulum.)
  • The Coalition gained Bass and Braddon from Labor in Tasmania, Longman and Herbert from Labor in Queensland, gained Lindsay in exchange for losing Gilmore to Labor in NSW, and re-gained former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth from independent Dr Kerryn Phelps south of the harbour, but north of the harbour lost former Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah to Independent Zali Steggall.
  • The Coalition polled 51.5% of the national two-party preferred vote in 2019, a swing towards the government of 1.2%.
  • On the post election pendulum, a loss of two seats on a uniform swing of 0.6% would be enough to deprive the government of its majority.
  • Labor would need eight seats on a uniform swing of 3.2% for a majority in its own right.
  • A uniform swing of between 0.6% and 3.2% would mean negotiating with the cross bench to form government.
  • Swings are rarely so uniform that a given national swing can be guaranteed to deliver a suggested tiny majority.
  • Party codes: LIB – Liberal, NAT – National, ALP – Labor, GRN – Greens, IND – Independent, KAP Katter’s Australian Party, ONP – Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, CA – Centre Alliance.

The 2019 Post-Election Pendulum

Coalition (77 – LIB 61 NAT 16) Labor Seats (68)
Margin Electorate Margin Electorate
LIB 0.5 Bass TAS ALP 0.2 Macquarie NSW
LIB 0.6 Chisholm VIC ALP 0.7 Lilley QLD
LIB 1.4 Boothby SA ALP 0.9 Cowan WA
LIB 2.2 Warringah NSW (IND HELD) ALP 0.9 Eden-Monaro NSW
LIB 2.6 Mayo SA (CA HELD) ALP 1.1 Corangamite VIC **
LIB 2.7 Swan WA ALP 1.3 Blair QLD
LIB 3.1 Braddon TAS ALP 1.5 Dobell NSW
LIB 3.2 Reid NSW ALP 2.0 Moreton QLD
LIB 3.3 Longman QLD ALP 2.7 Gilmore NSW
LIB 3.9 Higgins VIC ALP 2.8 Dunkley VIC **
LIB 4.2 Leichhardt QLD ALP 2.8 Greenway NSW
LIB 4.3 Robertson NSW ALP 2.9 Griffith QLD
LIB 4.5 La Trobe VIC ALP 3.0 Hunter NSW
LIB 4.7 Dickson QLD ALP 3.1 Solomon NT
LIB 4.7 Casey VIC ALP 3.6 Parramatta NSW
LIB 4.8 Deakin VIC ALP 4.1 Richmond NSW
LIB 5.0 Brisbane QLD ALP 4.5 Shortland NSW
LIB 5.1 Lindsay NSW ALP 5.0 Perth WA
LIB 5.4 Hasluck WA ALP 5.0 Burt WA
LIB 5.7 Flinders VIC ALP 5.1 McEwen VIC
LIB 5.7 Stirling WA ALP 5.1 Paterson NSW
LIB 6.1 Ryan QLD ALP 5.2 Lyons TAS
LIB 6.3 Banks NSW ALP 5.5 Lingiari NT
LIB 6.7 Kooyong VIC (5.7 v GRN) ALP 5.5 Werriwa NSW
LIB 6.9 Sturt SA ALP 6.0 Hotham VIC
LIB 7.0 Bennelong NSW ALP 6.3 Macnamara VIC
LIB 7.4 Monash VIC ALP 6.4 Oxley QLD
LIB 7.5 Bonner QLD ALP 6.5 Isaacs VIC
LIB 7.6 Pearce WA ALP 6.5 Rankin QLD
LIB 7.6 Menzies VIC ALP 6.6 Hindmarsh SA
LIB 7.8 Goldstein VIC ALP 6.6 Jagajaga VIC
LIB 8.4 Herbert QLD ALP 6.7 McMahon NSW
LIB 8.4 Petrie QLD ALP 6.7 Brand WA
LIB 8.6 Forde QLD ALP 7.0 Fremantle WA
NAT 8.7 Flynn QLD ALP 7.6 Bean ACT
LIB 9.3 North Sydney NSW ALP 8.2 Adelaide SA
NAT 9.5 Page NSW ALP 8.4 Macarthur NSW
LIB 9.9 Hughes NSW ALP 8.7 Holt VIC
LIB 9.9 Wentworth NSW (1.4 v IND) ALP 8.9 Kingsford Smith NSW
LIB 10.2 Aston VIC ALP 9.1 Bendigo VIC
LIB 10.3 Bowman QLD ALP 9.5 Barton NSW
LIB 10.4 Wannon VIC ALP 9.8 Makin SA
LIB 11.5 Tangney WA ALP 10.4 Corio VIC
LIB 11.6 Canning WA ALP 10.6 Fenner ACT
LIB 11.7 Moore WA ALP 11.0 Whitlam NSW
NAT 11.9 Cowper NSW (6.8 v IND) ALP 11.0 Ballarat VIC
LIB 12.2 McPherson QLD ALP 11.3 Maribyrnong VIC
NAT 12.4 Capricornia QLD ALP 12.0 Kingston SA
LIB 12.7 Fisher QLD ALP 12.3 Franklin TAS
LIB 12.8 Indi VIC (IND HELD) ALP 12.4 Chifley NSW
LIB 13.0 Hume NSW ALP 12.5 Lalor VIC
NAT 13.2 Wide Bay QLD ALP 13.5 Cunningham NSW
LIB 13.3 Mackellar NSW ALP 13.6 Watson NSW
NAT 13.3 Calare NSW ALP 13.9 Newcastle NSW
LIB 13.4 Grey SA ALP 14.0 Fowler NSW
LIB 13.5 Fairfax QLD ALP 14.2 Spence SA
LIB 14.2 Fadden QLD ALP 14.2 Bruce VIC
LIB 14.4 Curtin WA ALP 14.2 Fraser VIC
LIB 14.5 O’Connor WA ALP 14.8 Blaxland NSW
NAT 14.6 Hinkler QLD ALP 14.9 Gellibrand VIC
LIB 14.6 Kennedy QLD (KAP HELD) ALP 15.4 Gorton VIC
LIB 14.6 Forrest WA ALP 16.2 Clark TAS (IND HELD)
LIB 14.6 Wright QLD ALP 17.1 Melbourne VIC (GRN HELD)
NAT 14.7 Dawson QLD ALP 17.1 Canberra ACT
LIB 14.8 Durack WA ALP 18.7 Sydney NSW
NAT 15.2 Lyne NSW ALP 18.8 Calwell VIC
LIB 15.4 Moncrieff QLD ALP 21.7 Scullin VIC
LIB 15.7 Berowra NSW ALP 23.9 Grayndler NSW (16.3 v GRN)
NAT 16.3 Mallee VIC ALP 25.9 Wills VIC (8.2 v GRN)
LIB 16.6 Bradfield NSW ALP 26.4 Cooper VIC (14.7 v GRN)
NAT 16.7 Gippsland VIC
NAT 17.0 Parkes NSW OTHERS (6)
NAT 17.7 New England NSW (14.4 v IND) Margin Seat – State
LIB 18.7 Mitchell NSW IND 1.4 Indi VIC (v LIB)
LIB 19.0 Barker SA CA 5.2 Mayo SA (v LIB)
LIB 19.1 Cook NSW IND 7.3 Warringah NSW (v LIB)
NAT 19.5 Riverina NSW KAP 13.4 Kennedy QLD (v LNP)
LIB 19.9 Farrer NSW (11.0 v IND) GRN 21.9 Melbourne VIC (v LNP)
NAT 20.1 Nicholls VIC IND 22.2 Clark TAS (v ALP)
LIB 20.5 Groom QLD
NAT 25.5 Maranoa QLD (22.5 v ONP)

1 thought on “2019 Federal Election – Post-Election Pendulum”

  1. Hi Antony,
    Just wondering when you will upload your guide for. the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
    Cheers
    Marko
    COMMENT: At the end of January.

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