2019 Federal Election – Post-Election Pendulum

This post is unfinished business from the 2019 Federal election, setting out a post-election pendulum of the results. A pdf version arranged on two sides of an A4 page can be found via this link.

While this pendulum is current on publication in January 2020, new electoral boundaries will see it superseded before the next election, due to be held between August 2021 and May 2022.

Redistributions look certain to be conducted in Victoria (gaining a seat to 39) and Western Australia (losing a seat to 15). There could also be redistributions in the ACT and Northern Territory depending on whether the Territory representation rules are changed before the next election.

In the pendulum below I have tried to display both two-party preferred and two-candidate preferred margins for all 151 seats.

Of the 151 contests in 2019, 136 finished as traditional two-party preferred races between candidates representing Labor and the Liberal/National Coalition. Another 16 finished as two-candidate preferred races where either Labor or the Coalition were excluded during the distribution of preferences.

Six of the 16 two-candidate preferred contests were won by minor parties or independents, while in the the other 10 contests, minor parties or independents finished second.

To explain the pendulum layout –

• Seats with Coalition two-party preferred majorities are shown on the left-hand side of the pendulum, Labor majorities on the right, with seats won by minor parties and independents shown bottom right.
• The six electorates won by minor parties and independents have been listed twice. They have been listed according to their two-party preferred margin in the Coalition and Labor columns in bold. The actual two-candidate preferred margin is listed at the bottom of the right hand column under ‘Others’. Some of the two-party preferred margins in these seats are meaningless. For instance, it is highly unlikely that either Mayo or Warringah would have produced such close result in real two-party contest between Liberal and Labor candidates.
• The margin for each seat is calculated by subtracting 50 from the winning candidate’s percentage vote after the distribution of preferences. So if the winning candidate polled 56.1% of the vote after preferences, the margin is 6.1%. All margins have been rounded UP to the nearest 0.1%.
• Overall there were 81 electorates with Coalition 2-party preferred majorities, the Coalition winning 77, and 70 with Labor 2-party preferred majorities, winning 68.
• Figures in brackets in Labor and Coalition held seats (eg Kooyong) indicate actual two-candidate preferred margins between the winning party and a minor party or independent.
• The seats won by the LNP in Queensland are shown according to which party room the elected member joined. Of the 23 LNP members elected, 17 joined the Liberal party room and six the National. This gives overall Coalition numbers of Liberal 61 and National 16.
• Underlining indicates seats that changed party status at the election.
• The seats of Corangamite and Dunkley are marked with ‘**’, because while both seats saw Labor candidates defeat sitting Liberal MPs, both seats had become notional Labor seats in the pre-election Victorian redistribution.
• Going into the election, taking account of by-elections and redistributions, the Coalition held 73 seats, Labor 72, with six minor party and independent MPs. (You can review the pre-election landscape in my 2019 election preview, and check the electorate margins via the pre-election pendulum.)
• The Coalition gained Bass and Braddon from Labor in Tasmania, Longman and Herbert from Labor in Queensland, gained Lindsay in exchange for losing Gilmore to Labor in NSW, and re-gained former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth from independent Dr Kerryn Phelps south of the harbour, but north of the harbour lost former Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah to Independent Zali Steggall.
• The Coalition polled 51.5% of the national two-party preferred vote in 2019, a swing towards the government of 1.2%.
• On the post election pendulum, a loss of two seats on a uniform swing of 0.6% would be enough to deprive the government of its majority.
• Labor would need eight seats on a uniform swing of 3.2% for a majority in its own right.
• A uniform swing of between 0.6% and 3.2% would mean negotiating with the cross bench to form government.
• Swings are rarely so uniform that a given national swing can be guaranteed to deliver a suggested tiny majority.
• Party codes: LIB – Liberal, NAT – National, ALP – Labor, GRN – Greens, IND – Independent, KAP Katter’s Australian Party, ONP – Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, CA – Centre Alliance.

The 2019 Post-Election Pendulum